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Syd
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20 Mar 2020, 7:19 pm

beneficii wrote:
I want to remind everybody of a couple of points to show why you can't just look at the total number of deaths right now, the total number of serious cases right now, and just divide these by the total number of cases right now.

1.) Coronavirus cases take at least 2 weeks to resolve. 2-3 weeks for mild cases, and 3-6 weeks for severe cases.

2.) The vast vast majority of the total number of cases right now, were diagnosed in just the past week.

These cases have not all had time to resolve yet, so you can't draw any conclusions from the set of numbers I mentioned in my first paragraph right now.


I've been telling people that the confirmed cases are showing us the PAST, not the present.

There's also a severe shortage of tests in many places, so we aren't yet seeing accurate data worldwide.

Plus, tourist countries are being hit first, and unpopular countries are being hit last. A big reason why we're seeing problems in Europe is because everyone travels there. By comparison, very few people travel to remote African countries. I've heard some claim that "warm weather" protects places like Africa which is BS.



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20 Mar 2020, 7:27 pm

Anyone else spend hours doing online grocery orders because the sites keep crashing, and you don't know if you've paid like 500 times or not at all? I'm so over it. It's also frustrating that you don't know if you'll get what you ordered or if it's out of stock, until it's delivered. My delivery options are at least a week but I know people waiting six weeks.


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Pepe
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20 Mar 2020, 7:37 pm

beneficii wrote:
Pepe wrote:
I have been saying, for a long time, that the infection/death-rate percentage is exaggerated because of this.
There seems to never be a guesstimate on how many people are mildly infected, get over it, and have been undiagnosed.


This is not true at all.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4 ... oronavirus

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... e-u-s-now/

The expert mentioned in this last one is Trevor Bedford, who's on Twitter and makes great tweets. If you're interested in keeping up on the subject, you should follow him.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/with_replies

It was partly thanks to him back in late February that I recognized this problem was a lot bigger than it looked at the time, due to inadequate testing. (And in fact, I discussed it here on this thread back in late February.)

And I've seen a lot of other estimates as well, and I think thus far they have been panning out.


Thank you for the information.
My "fishing expeditions" usually go unrewarded. :wink:

I haven't look at your links, yet.
Does "WHO" incorporate guesstimations in their figures?

Once again,
Thank you for your reply.



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20 Mar 2020, 7:47 pm

Quote:
The possible numbers in Ohio are a stark illustration of how many cases could be in other states as well, but have not been revealed given the lack of widespread testing. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4 ... oronavirus


That is the point I have been making.
And 80% of those infected *and* identified, don't go to the hospital.

Quote:
Not everyone with the virus has symptoms, and about 80 percent of people with the virus do not end up needing hospitalization, experts say. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4 ... oronavirus

Yup. :wink:

And, how many have it, overcome it and will simply go on with their lives, totally oblivious of the fact? :chin:
A "novel" coronavirus idea, that one. :wink:



Last edited by Pepe on 20 Mar 2020, 8:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Pepe
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20 Mar 2020, 8:02 pm

beneficii wrote:
I want to remind everybody of a couple of points to show why you can't just look at the total number of deaths right now, the total number of serious cases right now, and just divide these by the total number of cases right now.

1.) Coronavirus cases take at least 2 weeks to resolve. 2-3 weeks for mild cases, and 3-6 weeks for severe cases.

2.) The vast vast majority of the total number of cases right now, were diagnosed in just the past week.

These cases have not all had time to resolve yet, so you can't draw any conclusions from the set of numbers I mentioned in my first paragraph right now.


Precisely.
That is why I adopt a stoic, laid-back approach here.

We are dealing with a virus which is new/novel.
We really don't know where the stats will fall at this stage.

People who think they know the answers are fooling themselves, imo.
I think we will find out when we find out, but not sooner. :wink:

But, hey, speculation, intellectual gymnastics, is fun, well for some. :wink:

It will be interesting to see how things turn out in a year's time.
We "should" have a vaccine, by then.
Perhaps we won't even need it, as was the case with SARS?

See you then.
Same place.
Same channel.
Bring chips and soft drinks. :wink:



Pepe
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20 Mar 2020, 8:11 pm

Syd wrote:
beneficii wrote:
I want to remind everybody of a couple of points to show why you can't just look at the total number of deaths right now, the total number of serious cases right now, and just divide these by the total number of cases right now.

1.) Coronavirus cases take at least 2 weeks to resolve. 2-3 weeks for mild cases, and 3-6 weeks for severe cases.

2.) The vast vast majority of the total number of cases right now, were diagnosed in just the past week.

These cases have not all had time to resolve yet, so you can't draw any conclusions from the set of numbers I mentioned in my first paragraph right now.


I've been telling people that the confirmed cases are showing us the PAST, not the present.

There's also a severe shortage of tests in many places, so we aren't yet seeing accurate data worldwide.

Plus, tourist countries are being hit first, and unpopular countries are being hit last. A big reason why we're seeing problems in Europe is because everyone travels there. By comparison, very few people travel to remote African countries. I've heard some claim that "warm weather" protects places like Africa which is BS.


Agreed,
It isn't the warm weather,
It is the humidity.

Droplets from people coughing and sneezing don't travel as far with higher humidity, apparently.



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20 Mar 2020, 8:13 pm

Dr. Fauci here:


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Pepe
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20 Mar 2020, 8:16 pm

Quote:
Secret trial to see docs fight virus with HIV, malaria meds
A handful of Aussies with coronavirus have successfully been medicated in a secret trial rolling out nationwide. It is one of many steps scientists ar...



cyberdad
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20 Mar 2020, 8:17 pm

eikonabridge wrote:
Why didn't their governments take over the production and rationing of masks, like Taiwan has done?

I can't speak of other governments but the Australian government has been acknowledged as being underprepared and the leadership under the Morrison government have been slow to react.

eikonabridge wrote:
Instead of teaching people how to make their own masks

I am waiting for advice on how the girl in the video you posted created a "fluted" paper towel like magic. Most of us don't have origami skills.

eikonabridge wrote:
You know how many Asians have been mistreated in the West because of wearing masks?

I have not personally seen this but Asian Australians have posted their individual stories of discrimination or racism in the media and I believe them. There is a general fear of Asians walking around with masks as there is some concern they may be wearing it because they are infected. As you can imagine it's difficult to shift the general population fears over Asians with masks. I personally keep social distance from everybody.

eikonabridge wrote:
That fact is: the West did not even want masks. And now it cries for masks, and is dependent on donations from Asians. Isn't that humiliating? Don't worry, the Chinese people I know in the US are scrambling to donate masks to hospitals. Taiwan is donating 100,000 masks per week to the US. The Chinese tycoon Jack Ma alone is donating 1 million masks to the US.


Everyone knows that these communicable viruses like cat flu, bird flu, SARS and COVID19 originate in China. I recall losing money after cancelling an overseas a decade ago due to fears over bird flu. I personally have lost thousands of dollars from our superannuation and from cancelled trips we had planned in 2020. While I object to blaming China I do understand the resentment against Chinese people. Our politicians have openly called for less reliance on the Chinese economy. Australian universities are cutting courses that traditionally attract students from the PRC. This is shaping up to be an economic and social disaster zone here in Australia.

The small token gestures made by Taiwan are going to be a drop in the ocean and you can't shift people's long term views that China's inability (Specifically Xi Jinping) to control disease outbreaks has been the cause of this current global collapse.



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20 Mar 2020, 8:37 pm

I heard a theory a few minutes ago and it is a really, really good theory.

One of the things that President Trump did yesterday was to streamline the use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine in the treatment of the coronavirus.

According to the NYT:

The malaria drugs, chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, are among the remedies that have been tried in several countries as the virus has spread around the world, killing at least 9,800.

Both drugs have gone into short supply in the United States this month, as word has spread of their potential benefit to coronavirus patients. Manufacturers of the generic products have said they are ramping up production. One company, Teva, said it would donate millions of pills of hydroxychloroquine to hospitals, and another company, Mylan, said it would restart production of the drug.

Doctors in China, South Korea and France have reported that the treatments seem to help. But those efforts have not involved the kind of large, carefully controlled studies that would provide the global medical community the proof that these drugs work on a significant scale.


Now here is the part that makes this very interesting and from my frame of reference a good theory.
I remember that someone on this thread noted that the cases of this coronavirus is hitting the world disproportionately. They don't seem to be showing up in Africa, India, South America, and Mexico. Interesting, maybe you could chalk it up on the fact that these countries do not have Tier 1 medical staff and testing facilities. But let us look at it from a different frame of reference.

Malaria is a terrible sickness. There were 219 million cases of malaria globally in 2017 and 435 000 malaria deaths. Someone theorized that the reason why this drug was effective against the coronavirus was because it was effective against malaria.

So I pulled up a map of malaria infected areas.

Image

Now where are the countries that have malaria. They are Africa, India, South America, and Mexico.

If I catch this particular virus, I think I will be one of the first in line for volunteering for this drug treatment.


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Last edited by jimmy m on 20 Mar 2020, 8:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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20 Mar 2020, 8:38 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
EzraS wrote:
In my opinion it is only serious cases that matter.

NO.
It is the transmission of the disease to vulnerable populations who will become severely ill that also matter. This disease is more contagious than usual because it is new and immunities have not been built up.


That makes them the serious cases. They probably make up the bulk of serious cases.

Even if there was not any kind of lockdown I would still be staying inside due to my vulnerability.

I do not need the government to shut everything down for weeks on end to keep me safe.

I have always had to keep myself extra safe from just regular flu and pneumonia. That has always been mine and my family's job to keep me safe from viruses due to my lifelong respiratory issues.

If the government said to me "Hey Mr. Shea, there is a nasty virus out that is mild for most people, but might kill you, do you want us to shut down the city to keep you safe?"

My answer would be no of course.



Last edited by EzraS on 20 Mar 2020, 8:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Pepe
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20 Mar 2020, 8:49 pm

jimmy m wrote:
I heard a theory a few minutes ago and it is a really, really good theory.

One of the things that President Trump did yesterday was to streamline the use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine in the treatment of the coronavirus.

According to the NYT:

[i]The malaria drugs, chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, are among the remedies that have been tried in several countries as the virus has spread around the world, killing at least 9,800.



Autralia is researching this too:
Quote:
Secret trial to see docs fight virus with HIV, malaria meds

A handful of Aussies with coronavirus have successfully been medicated in a secret trial rolling out nationwide. It is one of many steps scientists ar...



jimmy m
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20 Mar 2020, 8:50 pm

EzraS wrote:
I have always had to keep myself extra safe from just regular flu and pneumonia. That has always been mine and my family's job to keep me safe from viruses due to my lifelong respiratory issues.


EzraS I have found that a supplement Juvenon which is available only over the Internet has significantly improved my lung function. As a result, I have been using it for over a decade. It has jimmy m. approval.


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20 Mar 2020, 9:05 pm

Friday night ghost town. 90% empty. Freaky. And sad. All these nice little businesses and resturants going out of business.

All so that those like me in the 3-5%, will not catch a virus.



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20 Mar 2020, 9:14 pm

Teach51 wrote:

I think Ezra that when the public see that the shelves in the stores are being replenished on a regular basis, and that there is no lack of basic commodities then they will calm down a bit and stop hoarding. It is the initial shock, when we establish a new routine and see that we can get what we need when we need it we will all panic less. There are plenty of reserves and import and export of food is still robust as far as I know.


It seems there is an additional problem.
Here, in Australia, it seems profiteering has also added to the situation.
This has been a problem, here in OZ, with baby formula, for a long time.
There are suspicions that now it is happening with other products.



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20 Mar 2020, 9:15 pm

I heard that some women (men?) are buying and consuming baby formula in place of regular milk.

These are people who don't have babies.

What the hell is wrong with people.


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