Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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As can be seen from the chart below the death toll rate attributed to covid-19 in the US appears to be currently going down.



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Total current deaths since January 25th = 275 out of 19,773 cases.

Or very few, I suspect.
Give it a try.
Time will tell.

Well, the exponential curve can't continue to exponentialize forever.
Axiomatic.
As I have said previously, eventually we will run out of old people.

Obviously.

This photo taken at Bondi Beach this morning indicates social distancing isn't working

Will you also bring back people’s dead love ones?

I shouldn't have to say this again, but:
Has the graph factored in the number of people who are, or have been infected, but not identified?
You are prepared to admit that there are people who fit this criterion, I imagine.

I donate to the: "Expose the lies, damn lies and statistics" Acadamy.

In things like this, people really need to get into the nitty-gritty, something we have learnt in the great Climate Change debate.

If you don't know the answer, your argument is weakened.
Do you know the answer?
If so, could you provide proof?
If it is a gut feeling, could you verify that it is?

Keep in mind, I am flexible and have the heart of a true scientist.
I am not interested in defending falsehood.
If I am in error, I absolutely want to know it.
Remember, I *am* the Oracle of Truth, after all.

Can we play “send nekkid pics to random Evangelical Trump supporters”?

It took a while, but we are finally here.

Emotional blackmail is very effective.
But not on me.

No I just can’t tell where you stand, some of your post is denying it’s real while others are like it’s dangerous. For me it’s very real. And seeing others deny it pisses me off.

I come here for news, not denying conspiracy theories, I could get plenty of that from conservative coworkers on Facebook, there’s a reason I blocked them.

I'm going to ignore the part of the post where you just pump yourself up. As well, I will interpret your question in the most generous manner possible. It appears you are asking, Does the graph take into account deaths due to COVID-19 that were not reported as such? No, clearly it does not. However, you can look at other data to try to get an idea of where we're headed now, and you can look at different pieces of data and come to the conclusion that likely a certain thing is occurring.

So, again, also looking at what is going on in NYC hospitals, we can see that the number of admissions has begun to spike massively:



And then, also knowing from the WSJ that NYC hospitals are becoming strained and ICU's are filling up:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronaviru ... 1584719908

Taking all this into account, we can safely conclude that COVID-19 cases are starting to pile up, and they have been progressing to the point that now in certain areas of the country, like NYC, the health care system is beginning to come under strain, which is what we have been trying to prevent through measures to flatten the curve:

People are dying in my city, paramedics got infected. It’s possible 250 kids were exposed by school employee. County says they are running out of supplies and we are just starting. Hospitals aren’t ready.

I just saw on news hospitals in other states are preparing to decide who has better chances of surviving and letting others just die.

Seems west coast cities are going have to fight over the only hospital ship.

There will come a point where older people will become less susceptible to the coronavirus, in part because more will effectively self-isolate, and in part because those irresponsible elements in society, who don't take precautions, will come to their senses, or end up in gaol.

Ask yourself: How many, who have been infected, became so as a result of lax social protocols?
Is there any excuse, these days, not to take things seriously?
Oh yes, I believe there is at least one: "I want to party".

Some of the younger people may not be responsible (I think I can find that video, if I have to), so it is really up to more mature people to take control, which I have done, incidentally.
We are in *heavy* self-isolation here, and never assume others are doing the right thing.

I thank you,
Pompous Pepe, the pufferuperer.

Last edited by Pepe on 21 Mar 2020, 2:44 am, edited 2 times in total.

Currently New York is spiking massively compared to the rest of the US.

Total cases: 8,398 | New cases: +3,031 | Total deaths: 46 | New deaths: +12 | Active cases: 8,352


Second worst is my home state Washington which is way behind New York.

Total cases: 1,524 | New cases: +148 | Total deaths: 83 | New deaths: +9 | Active cases: 1,317


In third place is California.

Total cases: 1,207 | New cases: +198 | Total deaths: 23 | New deaths: +4 | Active cases: 1,178

As of today 11% of all closed cases of confirmed coronavirus have died, which is 4% of total cases overall, active and closed.

And the number of deaths in many countries is doubling faster than every 3-4 days; in the USA and the UK it's currently every 2.5 days. But countries that have introduced much stricter social distancing measures, like Italy and Spain, have managed to bring their rates down from previous 2 days to 4, but that's still overwhelming their hospitals with huge numbers of critically ill who need intensive care and ventilators to breathe, etc.

Ironically we are discussing this on a forum for people most of whom already self-isolate as much as possible and find it relatively easy to practice social distancing, but unfortunately we're in a minority. NTs have terrible difficulty doing this. And so they're still spreading coronavirus. And the figures still look awful. They're still exactly on track for the huge numbers I posted two weeks ago. General behaviour has not changed enough to make much difference.

So I was looking at the recent research on the apparently positive effects of combined hydroxycholoquine ( traditionally used to treat malaria ), and antibiotic on coronavirus/covid19 duration and severity. Jimmy_m mentioned how the malarial parts of the world seem relatively unaffected, and although there may, as he and Syd among others have pointed out, be other factors also involved it does look intriguing.

Hydroxycholoquine is an anti-inflammatory and reduces fever ... like ibuprofen, neurofen and cortisone which French doctors recently warned everyone against taking if ill with covid19, saying that they appeared to make it harder to fight the virus because they suppress the immune system, reducing the number of protective T cells that the body produces, etc.

Hydroxycholoquine is in fact deliberately and now routinely used to suppress immune system activity in many people with autoimmune disorders.

It doesn't seem to make sense that hydroxycholoquine would be helpful against covid19.

But apparently it is, when used in conjunction with an antibiotic which keeps the resultant secondary bacterial infections, ( which so often move in after viral illness ), in check/under control.

What hydroxycholoquine does, how it reduces the duration and severity of covid19, is suppress or reduce the body's own defensive reactions to the virus ...

... which, to me, begs the question, what does the virus then go on to do in the body? Does it "do" nothing? Is it, in the absence of the immune system reaction, actually almost totally inoffensive? In other words is the immune system overreacting/hysterical/making a mountain out of a molehill? Or does the virus proceed to wreak havoc in some invisible/undetected way over a longer period, having succeeded in passing the outer defences?

? ? ...

Last edited by ouinon2 on 21 Mar 2020, 2:44 am, edited 3 times in total.

I'm going to ignore the insult.



Nope.
I was actually considering the possibility of the ratio of deaths to infected individuals being lower because healthy, formerly infected, but unidentified individuals weren't part of the statistics.

I.E. If these unrecognised/unidentified "survivors" weren't part of the data, the graph would be misleading.
Hence the need for a guestimate factor.
Is there one?