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Pepe
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21 Mar 2020, 2:42 am

sly279 wrote:
Pepe wrote:
sly279 wrote:
Pepe wrote:
Jakki wrote:
doom and gloom........... i fear.


I am archiving the doom and gloom posts and will remind people about what they have written when after all this has passed.
I'm a cheeky bastard. :mrgreen:

Will you also bring back people’s dead love ones?


It took a while, but we are finally here.

Emotional blackmail is very effective.
But not on me. :wink:


No I just can’t tell where you stand, some of your post is denying it’s real while others are like it’s dangerous. For me it’s very real. And seeing others deny it pisses me off.

I come here for news, not denying conspiracy theories, I could get plenty of that from conservative coworkers on Facebook, there’s a reason I blocked them.


Of course, I believe it!
Why would I be self-isolating bigtime if I thought it was fake? :mrgreen:



beneficii
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21 Mar 2020, 2:55 am

Pepe wrote:
beneficii wrote:
I'm going to ignore the part of the post where you just pump yourself up.

I'm going to ignore the insult. 8O

beneficii wrote:
As well, I will interpret your question in the most generous manner possible. It appears you are asking, Does the graph take into account deaths due to COVID-19 that were not reported as such?


Nope.
I was actually considering the possibility of the ratio of deaths to infected individuals being lower because healthy, formerly infected, but unidentified individuals weren't part of the statistics.

I.E. If these unrecognised/unidentified "survivors" weren't part of the data, the graph would be misleading.
Hence the need for a guestimate factor.
Is there one?


The graph you asked about only showed the total number of deaths. It did not show a rate or a percentage.


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Syd
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21 Mar 2020, 2:58 am

VOLUNTEERS WANTED


Volunteer to help or share with others via forums, email, social media. :heart:

NYC Health & Hospitals - https://www.nychealthandhospitals.org/volunteering/

God's Love We Deliver - https://glwd.volunteerhub.com/events/index

City Harvest Volunteers - https://cityharvestvolunteers.civicore.com/

Invisible Hands Deliver - https://www.invisiblehandsdeliver.com/

Bushwick Mutual Aid - https://www.facebook.com/groups/691761548028851/

Food Bank NYC - https://volunteer.foodbanknyc.org/

Trinity's Services - https://web.godeed.today/organization/5 ... a7c8/deeds

City Meals - https://www.citymeals.org/get-involved/ ... er-with-us

New York Cares - https://www.newyorkcares.org/search/projects/

Heights and Hills - https://www.heightsandhills.org/



underwater
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21 Mar 2020, 3:23 am

blooiejagwa wrote:
Syd wrote:
Misslizard wrote:
Free fishing = free food.People don’t even have to call in fake sick now.Fish all day.
https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/202 ... ense-fees/


Resourceful farmers and country folks are much more safe than city folks, that's for sure.


We need to bring back our grandparents' wisdom and skills from the Great Depression


Fortunately spring is starting early this year where I live. The winter was exceptionally warm. I need to learn more about foraging, certainly we will have fresh fir shoots soon.

We were planning on doing mainly flowers this year in the garden, except now prices for fruit and vegetables are rising rapidly. Seems we might try a small vegetable patch with all sorts of above ground vegetables, which I guess are the most likely to become expensive. Fortunately we got four new fruit trees and seven berry bushes last year, plus a couple of rhubarb plants and some strawberries. The yield will be larger now they're established.


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Pepe
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21 Mar 2020, 3:33 am

beneficii wrote:

The graph you asked about only showed the total number of deaths. It did not show a rate or a percentage.


So you are presenting information that has nothing to do with what am I talking about. :scratch:
Interesting.
So this graph was for Ezras, and not relevant to me? (Too tired to do the research).

I have been talking about the same thing for pages and assumed we were on the same wavelength.
My bad.

I will own that I didn't give the graph a second glance. :wink:

So we *are* on the same page now, I am, and have been for some time, talking about the deaths to infected ratio.
More specifically, the total ratio over all age groups.
Even more specifically, the percentage.

I believe the percentage presented to the public may be inaccurate if it doesn't include a guestimation factor. :wink:



ouinon2
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21 Mar 2020, 3:38 am

ouinon2 wrote:
I was looking at the recent research on the apparently positive effects of combined hydroxycholoquine ( traditionally used to treat malaria ), and antibiotic on coronavirus/covid19 duration and severity. Jimmy_m mentioned how the malarial parts of the world seem relatively unaffected, and although there may, as he and Syd among others have pointed out, be other factors also involved it does look intriguing.

Hydroxycholoquine is an anti-inflammatory and reduces fever ... like ibuprofen, neurofen and cortisone which French doctors recently warned everyone against taking if ill with covid19, saying that they appeared to make it harder to fight the virus because they suppress the immune system, reducing the number of protective T cells that the body produces, etc.

Hydroxycholoquine is in fact deliberately and now routinely used to suppress immune system activity in many people with autoimmune disorders.

It doesn't seem to make sense that hydroxycholoquine would be helpful against covid19, but apparently it is, when used in conjunction with an antibiotic which keeps the resultant secondary bacterial infections, ( which so often move in after viral illness ), in check/under control.

What hydroxycholoquine does, how it reduces the duration and severity of covid19, is to suppress or reduce the body's own defensive reactions to the virus ... ... which, to me, begs the question, what does the virus then go on to do in the body?

Does it "do" nothing? Is it, in the absence of the immune system reaction, actually almost totally inoffensive? In other words is the immune system overreacting/hysterical/making a mountain out of a molehill? Or does the virus proceed to wreak havoc in some invisible/undetected way over a longer period, having succeeded in passing the outer defences? ? :? ? ...

The difference between autoimmune system response and regular immune system response is that in autoimmune reactions the body's defences attack itself/its own organs whereas in the "normal" case the body's defences attack cells/entities/objects which do not contain the body's own DNA/genetic material.

But is there any way to measure/know "objectively" how dangerous or destructive any given bacteria or virus or parasitic organism is in the absence of immune system responses? I suppose you'd find out if you were/are immuno-compromised/suffer from an immune-deficiency disorder.

How dangerous or destructive are coronaviruses generally, eg the common cold, to the immuno-compromised? :?

Because if they *are* dangerous to the immuno-compromised, ie having negative effects which are not "just" the result of the immune system response, ( ie fever and inflammation etc ), then surely using an immune system suppressant ( like hydroxycholoquine ), to reduce the duration and severity of ( visible symptoms of ) coronavirus illness/covid19 wouldn't be a very good idea? :? ... :? ?

PS. But if the hydroxycholoquine plus antibiotic combo really is helping in a significant number of cases, not leading to other later /longterm ill effects, then it does suggest that a lot of people in our societies have hyperactive/hypersensitive immune systems, overreacting massively and disproportionately to the presence of novel/new/unknown entities.

Sounds like Trump to me! :) If any of the above is actually correct then you could say that this virus appears to be aimed directly at societies which put up walls! lol



Last edited by ouinon2 on 21 Mar 2020, 4:05 am, edited 2 times in total.

EzraS
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21 Mar 2020, 3:52 am

Right now the way it is playing out is that the death rate has dropped going from March 18th to March 20th.

In looking at charts from past pandemics, they hit a sharp spike and then decrease fairly quickly. And that is the way covid-19 played out in China.

So there are several examples of what has actually happened vs prognostications of what might happen.



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21 Mar 2020, 3:53 am

Image

One problem I am wondering about is how many of those 80+ were in care homes? One person in a care home contracts it from a visitor or staff member or doctor visit or shopping trip, and then the virus spreads throughout the care facility.

That's a problem when it comes to 80+ seniors. A lot of them live in group homes or their children's homes. Probably not all that many live alone and isolated.

A guy my dad knows used to work in a senior care home. And he said he remembers a time when one resident became sick and many other residents caught it and died quickly.



ASPartOfMe
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21 Mar 2020, 4:07 am





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EzraS
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21 Mar 2020, 4:16 am

I was on a drive around downtown where I live and it was pretty deserted. Very low traffic. Only about 20% of street parking spaces being used.

Always before on a Friday at that time of evening there is heavy traffic and the street parking spaces are packed.

The only time I see downtown looking anywhere near that deserted is early christmas morning.



Pepe
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21 Mar 2020, 4:34 am

Quote:
So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 220,000 illnesses and more than 9,300 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 36 million illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

That said, scientists have studied seasonal flu for decades. So, despite the danger of it, we know a lot about flu viruses and what to expect each season. In contrast, very little is known about the new coronavirus and the disease it causes, dubbed COVID-19, because it's so new. This means COVID-19 is something of a wild card in terms of how far it will spread and how many deaths it will cause. https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html


This what I have been saying from the start.
If anyone has a problem with this, please step outside so we can settle things like NTs. :mrgreen:



Teach51
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21 Mar 2020, 4:49 am

EzraS wrote:
Image

One problem I am wondering about is how many of those 80+ were in care homes? One person in a care home contracts it from a visitor or staff member or doctor visit or shopping trip, and then the virus spreads throughout the care facility.

That's a problem when it comes to 80+ seniors. A lot of them live in group homes or their children's homes. Probably not all that many live alone and isolated.

A guy my dad knows used to work in a senior care home. And he said he remembers a time when one resident became sick and many other residents caught it and died quickly.


Israels' first Corona death is an 88 year old man in a care home (last night :cry: ). One staff member infected other staff members and now more that ten are infected. The victim had serious heart issues.


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Pepe
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21 Mar 2020, 4:57 am

EzraS wrote:
Right now the way it is playing out is that the death rate has dropped going from March 18th to March 20th.

In looking at charts from past pandemics, they hit a sharp spike and then decrease fairly quickly. And that is the way covid-19 played out in China.


That is promising.

EzraS wrote:
So there are several examples of what has actually happened vs prognostications of what might happen.


But there is the unknown because it is a "novel" virus with "novel" characteristics.

However, because it seems to have been tamed in China quite quickly, it suggests it may follower similar pandemic patterns.

I am not going to lose anything by being positive,
So positive I shall remain until there is a genuine reason to change my attitude.

"Are we there yet?"
"I don't think so, Tim." :wink:



EzraS
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21 Mar 2020, 6:32 am

Pepe wrote:
Quote:
So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 220,000 illnesses and more than 9,300 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 36 million illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

That said, scientists have studied seasonal flu for decades. So, despite the danger of it, we know a lot about flu viruses and what to expect each season. In contrast, very little is known about the new coronavirus and the disease it causes, dubbed COVID-19, because it's so new. This means COVID-19 is something of a wild card in terms of how far it will spread and how many deaths it will cause. https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html


This what I have been saying from the start.
If anyone has a problem with this, please step outside so we can settle things like NTs. :mrgreen:


I have seen up to 49 million cases according to the CDC and as many as 56,000 deaths. Up to 2.6 million medical visits. More than 200,000 hospitalizations. All during just one flu season mainly December through March with February being a peak time - Just in the United States.

It's like some people want covid-19 to be worse than that. They seem get pissed off if you suggest it may not be that bad. Like you're spoiling it for them. "You are ruining this crisis!".



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21 Mar 2020, 6:46 am

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The first vaccine trial has begun just 60 days after the genetic sequence of the virus was shared by China. This is an incredible achievement. To ensure clear evidence of which treatments are most effective, WHO and its partners are organizing a large international study, called the Solidarity Trial, in many countries to compare different treatments.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source ... 8894045a_2

A vaccine would enable locked-down countries to reopen after vaccinating their citizens. That would rapidly and definitively end the crisis.


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21 Mar 2020, 6:49 am

Some are saying nearly 80% of the U.S. population will get COVID-19, others saying 70,000 tops.

"Let's get it nailed down ... somebody ... let's find out! Let's get it straight so we can report this thing accurately!"

--Frank Reynolds


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