Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus
I am archiving the doom and gloom posts and will remind people about what they have written when after all this has passed.
I'm a cheeky bastard.
Will you also bring back people’s dead love ones?
It took a while, but we are finally here.
Emotional blackmail is very effective.
But not on me.
No I just can’t tell where you stand, some of your post is denying it’s real while others are like it’s dangerous. For me it’s very real. And seeing others deny it pisses me off.
I come here for news, not denying conspiracy theories, I could get plenty of that from conservative coworkers on Facebook, there’s a reason I blocked them.
Of course, I believe it!
Why would I be self-isolating bigtime if I thought it was fake?
I'm going to ignore the insult.
Nope.
I was actually considering the possibility of the ratio of deaths to infected individuals being lower because healthy, formerly infected, but unidentified individuals weren't part of the statistics.
I.E. If these unrecognised/unidentified "survivors" weren't part of the data, the graph would be misleading.
Hence the need for a guestimate factor.
Is there one?
The graph you asked about only showed the total number of deaths. It did not show a rate or a percentage.
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Resourceful farmers and country folks are much more safe than city folks, that's for sure.
We need to bring back our grandparents' wisdom and skills from the Great Depression
Fortunately spring is starting early this year where I live. The winter was exceptionally warm. I need to learn more about foraging, certainly we will have fresh fir shoots soon.
We were planning on doing mainly flowers this year in the garden, except now prices for fruit and vegetables are rising rapidly. Seems we might try a small vegetable patch with all sorts of above ground vegetables, which I guess are the most likely to become expensive. Fortunately we got four new fruit trees and seven berry bushes last year, plus a couple of rhubarb plants and some strawberries. The yield will be larger now they're established.
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I sometimes leave conversations and return after a long time. I am sorry about it, but I need a lot of time to think about it when I am not sure how I feel.
The graph you asked about only showed the total number of deaths. It did not show a rate or a percentage.
So you are presenting information that has nothing to do with what am I talking about.
Interesting.
So this graph was for Ezras, and not relevant to me? (Too tired to do the research).
I have been talking about the same thing for pages and assumed we were on the same wavelength.
My bad.
I will own that I didn't give the graph a second glance.
So we *are* on the same page now, I am, and have been for some time, talking about the deaths to infected ratio.
More specifically, the total ratio over all age groups.
Even more specifically, the percentage.
I believe the percentage presented to the public may be inaccurate if it doesn't include a guestimation factor.
Hydroxycholoquine is an anti-inflammatory and reduces fever ... like ibuprofen, neurofen and cortisone which French doctors recently warned everyone against taking if ill with covid19, saying that they appeared to make it harder to fight the virus because they suppress the immune system, reducing the number of protective T cells that the body produces, etc.
Hydroxycholoquine is in fact deliberately and now routinely used to suppress immune system activity in many people with autoimmune disorders.
It doesn't seem to make sense that hydroxycholoquine would be helpful against covid19, but apparently it is, when used in conjunction with an antibiotic which keeps the resultant secondary bacterial infections, ( which so often move in after viral illness ), in check/under control.
What hydroxycholoquine does, how it reduces the duration and severity of covid19, is to suppress or reduce the body's own defensive reactions to the virus ... ... which, to me, begs the question, what does the virus then go on to do in the body?
Does it "do" nothing? Is it, in the absence of the immune system reaction, actually almost totally inoffensive? In other words is the immune system overreacting/hysterical/making a mountain out of a molehill? Or does the virus proceed to wreak havoc in some invisible/undetected way over a longer period, having succeeded in passing the outer defences? ?
The difference between autoimmune system response and regular immune system response is that in autoimmune reactions the body's defences attack itself/its own organs whereas in the "normal" case the body's defences attack cells/entities/objects which do not contain the body's own DNA/genetic material.
But is there any way to measure/know "objectively" how dangerous or destructive any given bacteria or virus or parasitic organism is in the absence of immune system responses? I suppose you'd find out if you were/are immuno-compromised/suffer from an immune-deficiency disorder.
How dangerous or destructive are coronaviruses generally, eg the common cold, to the immuno-compromised?
Because if they *are* dangerous to the immuno-compromised, ie having negative effects which are not "just" the result of the immune system response, ( ie fever and inflammation etc ), then surely using an immune system suppressant ( like hydroxycholoquine ), to reduce the duration and severity of ( visible symptoms of ) coronavirus illness/covid19 wouldn't be a very good idea?
PS. But if the hydroxycholoquine plus antibiotic combo really is helping in a significant number of cases, not leading to other later /longterm ill effects, then it does suggest that a lot of people in our societies have hyperactive/hypersensitive immune systems, overreacting massively and disproportionately to the presence of novel/new/unknown entities.
Sounds like Trump to me!
Last edited by ouinon2 on 21 Mar 2020, 4:05 am, edited 2 times in total.
Right now the way it is playing out is that the death rate has dropped going from March 18th to March 20th.
In looking at charts from past pandemics, they hit a sharp spike and then decrease fairly quickly. And that is the way covid-19 played out in China.
So there are several examples of what has actually happened vs prognostications of what might happen.

One problem I am wondering about is how many of those 80+ were in care homes? One person in a care home contracts it from a visitor or staff member or doctor visit or shopping trip, and then the virus spreads throughout the care facility.
That's a problem when it comes to 80+ seniors. A lot of them live in group homes or their children's homes. Probably not all that many live alone and isolated.
A guy my dad knows used to work in a senior care home. And he said he remembers a time when one resident became sick and many other residents caught it and died quickly.
ASPartOfMe
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I was on a drive around downtown where I live and it was pretty deserted. Very low traffic. Only about 20% of street parking spaces being used.
Always before on a Friday at that time of evening there is heavy traffic and the street parking spaces are packed.
The only time I see downtown looking anywhere near that deserted is early christmas morning.
That said, scientists have studied seasonal flu for decades. So, despite the danger of it, we know a lot about flu viruses and what to expect each season. In contrast, very little is known about the new coronavirus and the disease it causes, dubbed COVID-19, because it's so new. This means COVID-19 is something of a wild card in terms of how far it will spread and how many deaths it will cause. https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html
This what I have been saying from the start.
If anyone has a problem with this, please step outside so we can settle things like NTs.
Teach51
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Gender: Female
Posts: 2,808
Location: Where angels do not fear to tread.

One problem I am wondering about is how many of those 80+ were in care homes? One person in a care home contracts it from a visitor or staff member or doctor visit or shopping trip, and then the virus spreads throughout the care facility.
That's a problem when it comes to 80+ seniors. A lot of them live in group homes or their children's homes. Probably not all that many live alone and isolated.
A guy my dad knows used to work in a senior care home. And he said he remembers a time when one resident became sick and many other residents caught it and died quickly.
Israels' first Corona death is an 88 year old man in a care home (last night
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My best will just have to be good enough.
In looking at charts from past pandemics, they hit a sharp spike and then decrease fairly quickly. And that is the way covid-19 played out in China.
That is promising.
But there is the unknown because it is a "novel" virus with "novel" characteristics.
However, because it seems to have been tamed in China quite quickly, it suggests it may follower similar pandemic patterns.
I am not going to lose anything by being positive,
So positive I shall remain until there is a genuine reason to change my attitude.
"Are we there yet?"
"I don't think so, Tim."
That said, scientists have studied seasonal flu for decades. So, despite the danger of it, we know a lot about flu viruses and what to expect each season. In contrast, very little is known about the new coronavirus and the disease it causes, dubbed COVID-19, because it's so new. This means COVID-19 is something of a wild card in terms of how far it will spread and how many deaths it will cause. https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html
This what I have been saying from the start.
If anyone has a problem with this, please step outside so we can settle things like NTs.
I have seen up to 49 million cases according to the CDC and as many as 56,000 deaths. Up to 2.6 million medical visits. More than 200,000 hospitalizations. All during just one flu season mainly December through March with February being a peak time - Just in the United States.
It's like some people want covid-19 to be worse than that. They seem get pissed off if you suggest it may not be that bad. Like you're spoiling it for them. "You are ruining this crisis!".
A vaccine would enable locked-down countries to reopen after vaccinating their citizens. That would rapidly and definitively end the crisis.
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Some are saying nearly 80% of the U.S. population will get COVID-19, others saying 70,000 tops.
"Let's get it nailed down ... somebody ... let's find out! Let's get it straight so we can report this thing accurately!"
--Frank Reynolds
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