Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

Post Reply New Topic

That jumped dramatically. When I looked at it 4 hrs ago it was 64 (0%).

However the number of cases only went from 26,304 to 26,366 (+62)

Last edited by EzraS on 22 Mar 2020, 1:49 am, edited 2 times in total.

i've been social distancing for pretty much this entire month. it's very serious

Says content not available.

If anyone wants to browse a stream of technical papers, you can find them here:

https://www.ssrn.com/index.cfm/en/coronavirus/

Be advised these are mainly unreviewed preprints, and may be solid or may contain significant flaws.

In the UK we are allowed out and about, but this weekend has shown that people aren't taking social distancing seriously. They're going to tourist hot spots and if everyone does that, then there's too many people gathering in one place.

People aren't staying at least 2 meters away from each other. They're hugging, shaking hands and going for walks in groups of friends.

I did go for a walk, but I kept away from people. Now I'm wishing I hadn't ven gone walking because there were more people about than I expected. And I thought the park I went to was a more secluded one.

I had to pass a retail park on my drive out of he city. I can't believe how many people were doing non-essential shopping. Seriously, do you really need a new t-shirt right now?

It's hard to know what to do. Experts say get some fresh air and exercise, but if too many people go to one place, then that's not gonna work. I drove a half hour out of the city to get to a place to walk, but others had the same idea. I might drive into the remote countryside next time where there are only sheep for miles.

So many people are posting on Facebook "Stay at home". It seems an overreaction to me just to stay in your own box and only leave to get groceries. Being an aspie I feel that should be more specific. Don't go out to busy areas, if an area looks busy or like there's getting to be a lot of people don't add to it, go elsewhere. Don't go and do nonessential shopping.

Batman : It has to be done , old chum


Robin : Holy hygiene issue , do you have to kill the bats in the cave


Batman : Weve been thru worse situations than this , my junior partner.


Remember when Catwoman almost sew me to a matress , I still have nightmares about THAT !

Robin : And youve got 2 viruses , the bats and that file on the Batcomputer the Riddler sent you , lol

Batman : Holy bad puns , you can do better than that *groans*

Russian ‘pneumonia’ cases raise doubts about official coronavirus numbers

https://nypost.com/2020/03/21/russian-p ... s-numbers/

This is a tough time of year for this here because after months of rainy weather people want to get out and congregate in the sunshine. They are going to have to self impose maintaining distance or it will be imposed upon them. And then we will be living in a police state of sorts.

Here's one of the clearest short presentations I've seen on this topic, with fresh diagrams:

It’s not exponential: An economist’s view of the epidemiological curve

The spread of COVID-19 is not going to follow an exponential curve – and grave errors will follow if analysts believe it will. The number of new cases rises rapidly, peaks, and then declines. It’s called the epidemiological curve. It’s not a theory or hypothesis; it plays out that way every flu season. It is how it has played out in China and Korea for COVID-19. Flattening the peak to avoid overloading the healthcare system is the main medical goal of the seemingly extreme containment policies we have seen to date.

https://voxeu.org/article/it-s-not-expo ... ical-curve

I am hoping those calling the shots start coming to their senses. And also those who go along with whatever they are told. I am not saying everything should instantly go back to normal. But shutting the world down can only go on for so long, especially over something like this which since January has not even scratched the surface compared to the numbers of cases and deaths brought on by ordinary flu within about the same time period.

I can open it Is it still unavailable?

Yep

One of the problems is getting good numbers. I don't think we can believe a single statistic coming out of Communist China. Maybe not many from the incompetent Italian system either. But numbers from other sources keep coming in and are getting better every day, and so make better judgements possible. This epidemic started in just about the worst possible place in terms of getting accurate information, and we're still suffering from that fact.

I think Facebook is in distress because of overload

Could be. But I just also had a problem with getting an embedded video posted here to play, so it might be something on my end.