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Pepe
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22 Mar 2020, 4:22 am

alex wrote:
i've been social distancing for pretty much this entire month. it's very serious :ninja:


Stay safe. :wink:



EzraS
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22 Mar 2020, 4:47 am

I have been social distancing for all of my life.



quite an extreme
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22 Mar 2020, 5:54 am

Darmok wrote:
Here's one of the clearest short presentations I've seen on this topic, with fresh diagrams:

It’s not exponential: An economist’s view of the epidemiological curve

The spread of COVID-19 is not going to follow an exponential curve – and grave errors will follow if analysts believe it will. The number of new cases rises rapidly, peaks, and then declines. It’s called the epidemiological curve. It’s not a theory or hypothesis; it plays out that way every flu season. It is how it has played out in China and Korea for COVID-19. Flattening the peak to avoid overloading the healthcare system is the main medical goal of the seemingly extreme containment policies we have seen to date.


https://voxeu.org/article/it-s-not-expo ... ical-curve


The curve depends on social relations only. The spreading of the virus is just kind of a chain reaction. It can be anything like constant, linear or exponential growing, falling or suddenly stopping if there is nothing that can be triggered anymore. Just like a nuclear chain reaction as well. :roll:
But because it depends on social relations it's nearly the way that news without the influence of public media would spread. :wink:


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22 Mar 2020, 6:08 am

What happened with your "Atypical cold" quite an extreme?



hurtloam
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22 Mar 2020, 6:59 am

The UK are thinking of a total lockdown after masses of people, including me, headed to country parks and beaches, to ironically, get away from other people. It doesn't help that the National Trust are letting people into the grounds of country estates for free now in an effort to cheer people up and get them exercising. The advice has been confusing and conflicting.

Just stay at home unless you really need to go out.

I bet we have a beautiful summer. Sods law.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-italy-self-isolation-social-distancing-quarantine-a9416516.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1584869518



envirozentinel
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22 Mar 2020, 7:02 am

Gosh I'm sure they can't stop folk from gong to beaches and parks... some people want to walk their dogs!

As long as they keep the guidelines in place and keep the recommended distance.


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22 Mar 2020, 7:05 am

I agree with the “epidemic curve” theory.



quite an extreme
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22 Mar 2020, 7:40 am

domineekee wrote:
What happened with your "Atypical cold" quite an extreme?

I'm slowly improving but it still causes a bit trouble. Sometimes I was nearly OK and then it got worse again. It's not a big thing but I hate if anykind of a cold lasts more then just few days. :wink:


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EzraS
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22 Mar 2020, 7:47 am

Same thing happened here. Like at Alki Beach. So the governor cracked down. They said it is okay to go outside and even recommend it. Just no flocking together into big groups. I never understood people wanting to cram together that way with others they don't even know. There is a little restaurant downtown that is always packed and the talking is so loud I can hear across the street. I went to the forest park yesterday, but I usually have the trails to myself for the most part anyways.



EzraS
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22 Mar 2020, 7:49 am

quite an extreme wrote:
domineekee wrote:
What happened with your "Atypical cold" quite an extreme?

I'm slowly improving but it still causes a bit trouble. Sometimes I was nearly OK and then it got worse again. It's not a big thing but I hate if anykind of a cold lasts more then just few days. :wink:


That's what you get for not wearing a mask :twisted:



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22 Mar 2020, 8:33 am

Who will care for the sick if the hospitals and doctors become overwhelmed? Where is the surge capacity?

I remembered an article in the British paper the other day. I posted it in this thread somewhere. In Great Britain they were requesting retired doctors come back to work, to help with the surge.

This morning I noticed an article out of Belgium. They are doing something along the same lines. They call it the "medical reservists". These are people who have medical backgrounds: students, former doctors or nurses etc. They put the call out and 150 people in Brussels had already volunteered as medical reservists a little over 24 hours.

I suspect this will trend soon all over the world, medical reservist.


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EzraS
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22 Mar 2020, 8:38 am

Just like if there was a war going on. Or a huge natural disaster happened.



jimmy m
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22 Mar 2020, 9:15 am

How do you cope with the stress of quarantine? Well most Aspies are introverts and can cope with isolation quite well because we have live this almost our entire lives. But how do NTs cope?

So in Belgium their newspaper looked up to find the person locked into isolation the longest.

Image

Jerry Van Oudenhove, aged 48, comes from Bambrugge in East Flanders, and now lives in Wuhan in China, where he teaches English and French.

Jerry now holds the record as the Fleming who has spent the longest time in lockdown, now 60 days, since the city where the coronavirus pandemic started took draconian measures to stop the spread of the disease – measures which now appear to be bearing fruit.

So, as his motherland goes into its first week of far less severe protective measures, the VRT asked him if he had any advice on getting through the difficulty of lockdown.

“This is in my Top Three tips: don’t count the days,” he told Radio 1. “That only gets you more wound up. If you get the idea that it could possibly last a long time, you’ll come up with solutions more quickly.”

Jerry keeps on teaching, only he has traded the classroom for a computer connection, as the five Flemish universities will do from now until the end of the academic year.

That brings a touch of routine and normalcy to what cannot be a normal situation.

“I’ve been very busy during the last six weeks,” he said. “I started pretty early with giving lessons online.”

Mens sana in corpore sano: a healthy mind in a health body is also part of the recipe, he said.

“I can go outside around my apartment building, but I avoid walking too far. I do some exercises inside, like yoga. Otherwise I do movement exercises. It’s all possible.”

Belgians so far have much more freedom of movement, but he has a warning.

“Prepare yourself in case that’s no longer possible.”

He’d like to be an example for others.

“I’m certainly not going to complain, but if I can do it here, all alone and far from home, I would think people in Belgium should be able to do it too. It maybe has to do with my character. I’m pretty flexible, and can adapt to new situations. From the start I was thinking how I was going to deal with this, and how we all might deal with it together.”

Jerry has now started a Facebook group, China Helps Belgium to help Belgium get through, including photos of local people sending encouraging messages.

Image

Source: Jerry Van Oudenhove has been 60 days in lockdown, and here is his advice


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22 Mar 2020, 9:16 am

Congress is discussing a 2 trillion dollar stimulus.

It's scary to think they will just print 2 trillion dollars and hand it out.


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22 Mar 2020, 9:22 am

Even though we are in lockdown (voluntary senior citizen quarantine), my wife was very busy yesterday. She is an excellent seamstress. Apparently the call went out that they were in need of face mask. Not the N95s but the ordinary kind. So she busied herself and fabricated a hundred of them and then drove them to town and dropped them off.


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22 Mar 2020, 9:28 am

Things could always be worse. Imagine being in Venezuela right now.