Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus
And honestly, we do see a lot of things in a similar way.
I like your emotional discipline and your inherent rationality.
OMG!
I *do* sound like a fanboy after all
Love it!
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Author of Practical Preparations for a Coronavirus Pandemic.
A very unique plan. As Dr. Paul Thompson wrote, "This is the very best paper on the virus I have ever seen."
envirozentinel
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Your wife is a champ!
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Why is a trailer behind a car but ahead of a movie?
my blog:
https://sentinel63.wordpress.com/
It's scary to think they will just print 2 trillion dollars and hand it out.
Hard to say if that will help the economy or make it collapse faster.
I bet the latter.
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Let's not confuse being normal with being mentally healthy.
<not moderating PPR stuff concerning East Europe>
Your wife is a champ!
Omg yes. These are crucial!
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Take defeat as an urge to greater effort.
-Napoleon Hill
It’s not exponential: An economist’s view of the epidemiological curve
The spread of COVID-19 is not going to follow an exponential curve – and grave errors will follow if analysts believe it will. The number of new cases rises rapidly, peaks, and then declines. It’s called the epidemiological curve. It’s not a theory or hypothesis; it plays out that way every flu season. It is how it has played out in China and Korea for COVID-19. Flattening the peak to avoid overloading the healthcare system is the main medical goal of the seemingly extreme containment policies we have seen to date.
https://voxeu.org/article/it-s-not-expo ... ical-curve
I am hoping those calling the shots start coming to their senses. And also those who go along with whatever they are told. I am not saying everything should instantly go back to normal. But shutting the world down can only go on for so long, especially over something like this which since January has not even scratched the surface compared to the numbers of cases and deaths brought on by ordinary flu within about the same time period.
There's a key concept (maybe better called a fallacy) in economics that goes back to an essay by Bastiat called "That which is seen and that which is not seen."
People naturally tend to focus on what is seen and try to control it. "OMG, 5000 people have died in Italy, we must lock everything down so this stops!" So we lock everything down. And yay, fewer people are dying from a virus! What is not seen is: people who commit suicide because of the lockdown; marriages that are now destroyed because of social disruption; increase in crime rate and people victimized by crime; spike in the homeless population because people are suddenly unemployed; increase in poverty that reduces life expectancy for a decade; and on and on.
Although everyone can fall for this fallacy (of focusing only on what is seen), the Left is particularly susceptible to it because the Left has a religious-like faith in their ability to control things. Watch for all the Greta Thunbergs of the world to use the current Draconian responses to the coronavirus as a model for how the world should respond to the demon of "climate change."
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The_Face_of_Boo
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Behold the Great Supreme Leader's wisdom!! ! The head of the great ret- *coughh* "Persian" empire.
https://www.france24.com/en/20200322-ir ... acy-theory
I wanna know what does he smoke.
It’s not exponential: An economist’s view of the epidemiological curve
The spread of COVID-19 is not going to follow an exponential curve – and grave errors will follow if analysts believe it will. The number of new cases rises rapidly, peaks, and then declines. It’s called the epidemiological curve. It’s not a theory or hypothesis; it plays out that way every flu season. It is how it has played out in China and Korea for COVID-19. Flattening the peak to avoid overloading the healthcare system is the main medical goal of the seemingly extreme containment policies we have seen to date.
https://voxeu.org/article/it-s-not-expo ... ical-curve
I am hoping those calling the shots start coming to their senses. And also those who go along with whatever they are told. I am not saying everything should instantly go back to normal. But shutting the world down can only go on for so long, especially over something like this which since January has not even scratched the surface compared to the numbers of cases and deaths brought on by ordinary flu within about the same time period.
There's a key concept (maybe better called a fallacy) in economics that goes back to an essay by Bastiat called "That which is seen and that which is not seen."
People naturally tend to focus on what is seen and try to control it. "OMG, 5000 people have died in Italy, we must lock everything down so this stops!" So we lock everything down. And yay, fewer people are dying from a virus! What is not seen is: people who commit suicide because of the lockdown; marriages that are now destroyed because of social disruption; increase in crime rate and people victimized by crime; spike in the homeless population because people are suddenly unemployed; increase in poverty that reduces life expectancy for a decade; and on and on.
Although everyone can fall for this fallacy (of focusing only on what is seen), the Left is particularly susceptible to it because the Left has a religious-like faith in their ability to control things. Watch for all the Greta Thunbergs of the world to use the current Draconian responses to the coronavirus as a model for how the world should respond to the demon of "climate change."
Do you think there would be less suicides and less divorces and no increase in crime without intervention?
_________________
Let's not confuse being normal with being mentally healthy.
<not moderating PPR stuff concerning East Europe>
Now is the time for humanity to unite and find solutions against a common enemy. But some stubborn old fools will refuse to let go of their grudges, and divide us further.
Last edited by Syd on 22 Mar 2020, 10:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
The conspiracy theories floating around are comical.
I’ve heard that it’s Bill Gates virus and he has a patent on it.
That this has been in the works so they can bust a huge pedophile ring involving Oprah and Ellen and the Clinton’s.
The usual one world order take over.
Population control by the elites, whoever they are.
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I am the dust that dances in the light. - Rumi
One of the trends that I noted very early on in this thread was that men in China were more susceptible to the coronavirus than women.
So has this trend carried over to Italy.
Over all, men represented 58 percent of 25,058 coronavirus cases in Italy, and 70 percent of the 1,697 deaths described in the report.
Women appear to have stronger immune systems than men. The female sex hormone estrogen appears to play a role in immunity, as does the X chromosome, which contains immune-related genes. Women carry two X chromosomes; men only one.
From an article published in September 2011:
Women not only live longer than men, they also appear to be in more robust health. A new hypothesis offers a reason why: it's in their genes.
Women are known to have a lower incidence of cancer — men have a two- to five-fold greater risk of developing the disease. Women are also better able to survive trauma, and, according to some reports, don't get as seriously ill from bacterial and viral infections.
In a new paper, researchers from Ghent University in Belgium argue these sex-specific health disparities may be due, at least in part, to tiny pieces of genetic material called microRNAs. The main function of microRNAs in cells is to turn off, or "silence," specific genes. The researchers say microRNAs located on the female X chromosome may give women an immune system advantage over males.
In humans, sex is genetic: Females have two X chromosomes, while males have one X and one Y. However, in females, one X chromosome in each cell in the body is randomly shut off, or inactivated, while the embryo is developing.
Here is where the researchers think the microRNAs come in. The X chromosome contains 10 percent of all microRNAs in the human genome. The Y chromosome has none. Some of the microRNAs on the X chromosome are thought to be involved in immune system function and cancer development.
If a microRNA did something "good," like help control cell growth, having two copies of that microRNA might provide females with extra protection against cancer. The same would be true for microRNAs that played a role in immune function.
As a real-life example, septic patients (who have widespread bacterial infections) have low levels of a particular microRNA found on the X chromosome, the researchers said.Thus, this particular microRNA may offer some protection against sepsis.
Source: Why Women Have Stronger Immune Systems than Men
Young adult men also died at higher rates than female peers during the influenza epidemic of 1918.
So I guess the point that I am making is that if you are female and stress out over the possibility of contracting this virus, take a deep breath and relax a little. You have 2 "X" chromosomes to protect you whereas I have only one.
_________________
Author of Practical Preparations for a Coronavirus Pandemic.
A very unique plan. As Dr. Paul Thompson wrote, "This is the very best paper on the virus I have ever seen."
ASPartOfMe
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People aren't staying at least 2 meters away from each other. They're hugging, shaking hands and going for walks in groups of friends.
I did go for a walk, but I kept away from people. Now I'm wishing I hadn't ven gone walking because there were more people about than I expected. And I thought the park I went to was a more secluded one.
I had to pass a retail park on my drive out of he city. I can't believe how many people were doing non-essential shopping. Seriously, do you really need a new t-shirt right now?
It's hard to know what to do. Experts say get some fresh air and exercise, but if too many people go to one place, then that's not gonna work. I drove a half hour out of the city to get to a place to walk, but others had the same idea. I might drive into the remote countryside next time where there are only sheep for miles.
So many people are posting on Facebook "Stay at home". It seems an overreaction to me just to stay in your own box and only leave to get groceries. Being an aspie I feel that should be more specific. Don't go out to busy areas, if an area looks busy or like there's getting to be a lot of people don't add to it, go elsewhere. Don't go and do nonessential shopping.
It am starting to feel uncomfortable on my daily outdoor walks because of this. I don’t go to parks with crowds packed. Everybody is home from school and work and bored and looking for something to do. I see groups of people, families just walking and groups of kids playing. It was especially bad Friday an unseasonably warm day. It felt a bit like an impromptu party.
Lombardy region announces stricter measures
Under the new rules announced late on Saturday, sport and physical activity outside, even individually, is banned. Using vending machines is forbidden.
Bolding=mine
Most places with lockdowns or shelter in place orders have been allowing individual outdoor exercising. I would hate to have to give up my daily walks because of government edict or of my own volition. Many autistics voluntarily never leave their residence. That has never been me. I have been walking by myself since I was a little kid. That routine forces me to break away from the computer and other obsessions. It gives me time to clear my head. Fresh air and UV rays strengthen ones immune system. It would be a bad thing for me and everybody to have all outdoor activities banned because NT’s are so naturally wired for socialization they are unable to stop a now suddenly dangerous form of it.
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“Self Acceptance is a process not a performance”
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Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity.
It's scary to think they will just print 2 trillion dollars and hand it out.
This is just to buy time. The alternative is civil unrest and a total collapse of the society. It's a bargain when you compare to what's coming. Take a good look at Trump's face. He is doing a decent job, but his job is hard. Not many alternatives left.
It’s not exponential: An economist’s view of the epidemiological curve
The spread of COVID-19 is not going to follow an exponential curve – and grave errors will follow if analysts believe it will. The number of new cases rises rapidly, peaks, and then declines. It’s called the epidemiological curve. It’s not a theory or hypothesis; it plays out that way every flu season. It is how it has played out in China and Korea for COVID-19. Flattening the peak to avoid overloading the healthcare system is the main medical goal of the seemingly extreme containment policies we have seen to date.
https://voxeu.org/article/it-s-not-expo ... ical-curve
I am hoping those calling the shots start coming to their senses. And also those who go along with whatever they are told. I am not saying everything should instantly go back to normal. But shutting the world down can only go on for so long, especially over something like this which since January has not even scratched the surface compared to the numbers of cases and deaths brought on by ordinary flu within about the same time period.
There's a key concept (maybe better called a fallacy) in economics that goes back to an essay by Bastiat called "That which is seen and that which is not seen."
People naturally tend to focus on what is seen and try to control it. "OMG, 5000 people have died in Italy, we must lock everything down so this stops!" So we lock everything down. And yay, fewer people are dying from a virus! What is not seen is: people who commit suicide because of the lockdown; marriages that are now destroyed because of social disruption; increase in crime rate and people victimized by crime; spike in the homeless population because people are suddenly unemployed; increase in poverty that reduces life expectancy for a decade; and on and on.
Although everyone can fall for this fallacy (of focusing only on what is seen), the Left is particularly susceptible to it because the Left has a religious-like faith in their ability to control things. Watch for all the Greta Thunbergs of the world to use the current Draconian responses to the coronavirus as a model for how the world should respond to the demon of "climate change."
Funny with as sheltered a life I lead, and being young, those things occurred to me immediately. I started looking stuff up and yep there has been research done on it. 46,000 people commit suicide over unemployment. 40,000 people die for each 1% of unemployment. It's all that that is scary as hell to me. And there is no mask to wear for it.
I can only hope it does not go that far and they lift lockdowns sooner than later. It was supposed to be for two weeks for the incubation period which made sense. Not it's like "could be months". I think their nuts. I think there's an insanity virus affecting the people calling the shots.
What they are doing to save a small fraction of the world (mostly who are already close to their deathbed) is going to destroy most of the world if it goes on too long.
Last edited by EzraS on 22 Mar 2020, 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
I can only hope it does not go that far and they lift lockdowns sooner than later. It was supposed to be for two weeks for the incubation period which made sense. Not it's like "could be months". I think their nuts. I think there's an insanity virus affecting the people calling the shots.
Care to share the source?
If people react so badly, I can't explain it in any other way than that your society has been already in a deep crisis.
_________________
Let's not confuse being normal with being mentally healthy.
<not moderating PPR stuff concerning East Europe>
