Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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I suspect many people have fear. But sometimes there are proactive steps that you can take to minimize vulnerability.

Several years ago, I looked at minimizing my vulnerability to pneumonia. Immunization shots became available for this condition, so I had my wife and I immunized against this vulnerability. It took 2 immunization shots and they were spaced apart by several months. What drove me in this directions was the following facts:

* Older people have higher risk of getting pneumonia, and are more likely to die from it if they do. For US seniors, hospitalization for pneumonia has a greater risk of death compared to any of the other top 10 reasons for hospitalization.
* Pneumonia is the most common cause of sepsis and septic shock, causing 50% of all episodes.
* Pneumonia can develop in patients already in the hospital for other reasons. Hospital-acquired pneumonia has a higher mortality rate than any other hospital-acquired infection.

My wife and I were over 65 years and in the high risk group, so I felt the immunizations we a good idea. The shots were a little more severe than most immunization shots but not near as bad as the immunizations for the Black Plague, which I had when I was a young adult.



Probably the main point that I am making here is the most individuals that are dying from this coronavirus, die because they contract pneumonia. They are elderly, have compromised immune systems; and the coronavirus pushes them over the cliff. So a proactive approach is to become immunized against this threat - pneumonia. (Maybe the time is short to become immunized for this particular coronavirus, but there will always be another coronavirus down the road, and why not be prepared.)

Pneumonia is a big risk to me.

The why I look at it, it is like defensive driving. If someone is a driver with common sense, they will wear a seat belt, keep their hands at 10 & 2 on the steering wheel and keep scanning the road and traffic as they are driving. That does not mean that they are worried they are going to die every day they drive back and forth to work. It just means they are being sensible. Of course one does need a certain amount of healthy fear while driving and not become careless.

Exactly!

Many of the doctors and nurses in China are going above and beyond the call of duty in caring for their coronavirus patients.

Last week I read about doctors wearing adult diapers to work because they did not have time to use the bathroom with their protective gear on.

This week I read that nurses are shaving their heads in an effort to more quickly put on hazmat suits while working in the virus-stricken city.

I would commend them for their dedication to duty.

The construction workers of Wuhan also built at least two full-fledged hospitals in 10 days.

Usually, the construction of that type of building takes at least a year.

The dying part is not the main concern. Here are the locations of the dead person (black oval) and the three new cases (red ovals).



The three new cases in Japan are all local people without traveling history, and no personal connections to Wuhan people. What does this mean? This means community infection, throughout Japan. In practical terms: Japan has fallen, and is now in the same category as Hong Kong and Singapore. It remains to watch Europe, but frankly, in all likeliness, Europe will also join this club. It's just a matter of time. The MWC (Mobile World Congress) conference in Barcelona, Spain, was cancelled for a reason.

This virus has never ceased to defy containment measures. Once place after another has succumbed to it. In simple words: containment measures have failed. They have only achieved to delay the inevitable.

Draconian traveling restrictions between US and Japan or Europe, is completely unthinkable. A lot of experts now think that it's a matter of time, for the inevitable to happen also in the USA. They have not called for Plan B, yet, but they have surely started to prepare for it.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/health-experts-warn-congress-coronavirus-may-hit-us-hard-in-next-two-to-four-weeks

Separately, the Chinese have continued to update their numbers. Several thousand cases were added, again, for a second time. It's pure magic.

One of the recommendations by the health authorities to deal with the coronavirus and other infectious diseases is to wash your hands, especially after using the bathroom. So do we actually do this. Generally most people don't.

30% of travelers using public bathrooms do not wash their hands at all, and only about 70% of the remaining travelers wash their hands with soap and water for the recommended time resulting in 49.6% of travelers having clean hands as their exit from the bathroom.

I generally don't. I may wash my hands for a few seconds and them dry them using a paper towel. But washing them with soap and water for 2 full minutes; that is not ME. It would feel like torture.

Now if everyone washed their hands would this help stop or slow down the spread of the coronavirus. The answer is YES. In one study, 44% of individuals touching contaminated surfaces were themselves contaminated. Washing with water alone reduced contamination to 23%, and the addition of plain soap reduced those at-risk to 8% - a five-fold reduction for a 2-minute treatment with no side effects, no need to consult a physician or obtain a prescription.

Source: We Should Be Washing Our Hands, Not Wringing Them

So what would be a solution for this Aspie?



This is an evaporating gel that kills 99.99% of the germs in 15 seconds. Rather than just trying to wash away the germs I am more focused on killing them. As an Aspie, I do not mind using this product. It feels good to put it on my hand and rub it around and then just let it evaporate away without a trace. The evaporation has a pleasant cooling effect on the hands. Besides it is fairly inexpensive and there are small bottles that can be used when I am up and about. I can just carry around a small bottle in my pocket and pull it out any time I get the urge to touch my face.

When and if we have an outbreak of coronavirus in the US, we will deal with it. Just like we've dealt with epidemics previously.

If there's one thing the US does well----is deal with epidemics.

The latest numbers out of Japan are:

* There have been 40 cases of COVID-19 reported so far in Japan, 36 of which involved patients who showed symptoms of the illness.

* There has been one death due to the coronavirus. The first fatality was a woman in her 80s who had been in hospital since 1 February, when she was diagnosed with pneumonia. The woman, a resident of Kanagawa prefecture near Tokyo, was the mother-in-law of a taxi driver who also became a newly confirmed case. The taxi driver drove 4 passengers from the now-quarantined cruise ship, the Diamond Princess, when it made a stop earlier this month.

* 218 passengers onboard the cruise ship Diamond Princess quarantined off the shore of Yokohama, Japan. The ship is actually in dock at the Daikoku Pier Cruise Terminal in the harbor. These include at least 32 Americans aboard diagnosed with COVID-19. 110 of those infected are Japanese. About 80% of the ship’s passengers are aged 60 or over, with 215 in their 80s and 11 in their 90s.

Japan has a strange way of dealing with pandemics. It can probably be summed up as "The Infectious Diseases Prevention Act contains provisions aimed at protecting the rights of patients. All measures taken against individuals who are infected or suspected of being infected with certain infectious diseases must be at the minimally required level." It borders on a voluntary compliance approach. For example:

A prefectural governor may advise a person who is reasonably suspected of being infected with a Category I, II, or III disease, or New Influenza, to undergo a medical examination. If the person does not voluntarily undergo an examination, the governor may dispatch an officer to examine the person. Except in emergencies, however, the governor must give notice to the person before issuing a medical examination recommendation or dispatching an officer.

When a governor receives a report that a person is infected with a Category I through III disease or New Influenza from a medical doctor, the governor sends a notice to the person prohibiting him or her from engaging in specified jobs, such as chef and waiter positions at a restaurant, for a period of time that depends on the disease.

A system of recommended or forced medical diagnosis and hospitalization may be activated when a person is suspected of being infected with certain infectious diseases. [i]A governor may advise a person infected with a Category I or II disease or New Influenza to be hospitalized in a designated hospital. If the person does not follow the advice, the prefectural governor may force the person to stay in a designated hospital. The term of the hospitalization must be seventy-two hours or less initially. If the governor finds during the initial hospitalization that it is necessary to continue to hospitalize the person to prevent the spread of a Category I or II disease or New Influenza, the governor may recommend hospitalization for up to an additional ten days, with the possibility of two ten-day extensions, if necessary. If the person does not follow the advice, the governor may force the hospitalization, but must give the patient and/or his or her guardian an opportunity to state their opinions.[/i]

The incubation period is about 14 days.

If we were going to have an outbreak of coronavirus in NYC amongst people in its five Chinatowns, I feel like it would have happened already. The travel restrictions and quarantines have been in place for at least 14 days now.

The latest numbers out of China is ~64,000 infected with the coronavirus. What is equally troubling is that more than 1,700 of these are front line medical workers.

This is another big question given you would think medical staff would take standard precautions to prevent getting infected so it doesn't make sense why 1700 were infected including the whistleblower doctor? This leads me to believe the virus is both airborne and viable over some distance. It may also be able to survive on surfaces longer than previous viruses?

I have a small bottle of hand sanitizer with me whenever I am out and use it frequently this time of year.

When you take your upcoming trip to China town I would use a combination of hand sanitizer and washing hands (up to the wrists) with soap. The washing removes grime/dirt that the virus can adhere to prior to applying hand sanitizer.

Despite all the pandamonium, the coronavirus won't last long because it was made in China.


you said to keep em coming.

More people wore masks in Chinatown during the SARS epidemic.