So the economy is failing.

Post Reply New Topic

Those were the days my friend, we thought they would never end,
Now my friends we are older but no wiser.

Regretfully our gangsters lack vision. The Autobahn, rebuilding Berlin, uniforms by Hugo Boss. Full employment through a reasonable size army, just something the size of North Korea, with all domestic supplies.

Like Catch 22, we could hire Canada to bomb Detroit, other rust belt cities, and relocate the population to retirement camps down south. We do need a place for maybe fifty million to drop out and smoke weed or something.

I can get you illegal Mexicans for $10 a day, twice what they make in Mexico. A shed out back to keep them, an acre or two of garden, retirement villages could work. Around here a Mexican is $40 a day, cash, and just use them when you need them, Hanging out at Lowes gets old. A sure $50 a week and a roof, they would take it. They also get to eat from the garden.

With that many out of the workforce, or into being Peons, we would have full employment, rising wages, and a funded consumer class.

Even the retirement villages would produce, keep food prices down,

Iraq and Afganistan were bad, but with the Islands of the Pacific in the 40s, we took those kinds of losses in a day. Our half million in uniform would not last long in a real war, with 10,000 a day dying. Russian losses were closer to 100,000 a day.

Sryia looks like Stalingrad, coming up, and for all the Dick Tracey wrist radios, it is still building to building, AKs, grenades, rockets.

Not much different than Grant took Richmond, Vicksburg fell, it took time, I remember oh so well.

War has not changed, we do not have the manpower to fight one, we would lose. Taiwan could be overrun before we could respond, and the Phillipines, Japan, Vietnam, to settle the China Sea oil question. China is that hungry, and our blocking Iran, their main supplier, is a rerun of our 30s Japan program.

Asia for Asians, The East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere, a rerun of of the past as much as the Peace of WWI lead to WWII.

Our power is based on nukes, but using them is the end. A land war in Asia is not going to work out. Japan could fall as fast as France, and we could not invade and take it back. China could put the North Korean army there.

All of these Asian people live in Asia, about four times America, twice America and Europe, and a long way away.

So Victory Gardens, War Bonds, a Universal Draft, and we solve our unemployment problem. I like the Swiss Model, drafted at eighteen, two years service, send them home with a bicycle and a gun.

The illegals within our borders are mostly involved in food production and construction. Sign them up for a National Defense Program, Guest Workers with protections, building our needed retirement villages, producing food. We also have some cities that should be torn down. Detroit, Flint, are not coming back.

We are not getting much back on Food Stamps, Social Security, and it will exceed GNP. The next generation cannot support this. Even if they had jobs. We will be like Japan with each two workers supporting one retired.

Building for retired, we reach full employment, more tax payers, reduced Food Stamps, diverse food production, which reduces the National Debt, and increases the value of the dollar.

We have taken some good steps toward clean air and water, we can restore our lands, plant cover crops, enrich the soil, because it is all we have.

The population will drop when the War Babies die, the next generation can have a better life. I look at Europe, overpopulated, often blown up, and still looking like a picture post card. Classic villages, surrounded by farms, then forests, which were a battlefield during WWI and WWII. They were plowed under, but grew back.

Last year we plowed a record amount of land, and the drought got worse, and crops were smaller. That is what happens. We also depend on chemical farming, We should be paying to plant cover crops to plow under, building the long term fertility, water holding ability, because the food demand is going up, and we have a long term prospect. What we do not plow is grazed, we are killing the future.

America is One Country, One People, and we need One Plan for the future. Also uniforms by Hugo Boss, and the trains should run on time.

The economy will not collapse, at least not in the dramatic fashion that OP fears. We probably came close to a worldwide depression in 2008, but I do not foresee any systemic shocks that can destroy the world. Perhaps a euro collapse would send some shockwaves, but they would mostly be hurting themselves, as the smart money has been moved elsewhere by now.

Why am I convinced of this? Because the forces of continuity are far stronger than the forces of change. The Roman Empire started declining sometime before 200, and yet it stuck around for a long time. Living standards declined, but it was only noticeable over generations. The barbarians started invading only after they realized that Romans saw each other as a greater threat. Even after the Western Roman Empire fell, it took about a century before the aqueducts stopped working, cities emptied, and people forgot classical education and craftsmanship.

There is less likely to be change in the next few years. I'm not convinced the Washington Consensus has collapsed. Even if it did, what credible alternative is there? Capitalism lets us flick a switch to make lights come on, feed us with abundant food grown hundreds of miles away, and enables global communications systems, like the one I'm talking to you through. Even today, the Canadians and Australians manage to make boatloads of money and employ their people, so not all is lost.

What worries me is the decline that takes generations. Japan's experience shows that decline need not be quick in the fast-paced modern era. In my country, the U.S, I am much more worried about the ossification of thought. We have a huge national debt, but it can be managed. Congress chooses not to manage it. The saddest part about a U.S. decline is that it'd affect the entire world.

It will be a lot more than a simple economic collapse...oh yes and its already started. You say there is less likely to be change in the next few years well things have been 'changing' for quite a while now and not for the better so we will see how that plays out. Be certain of your prediction, I will remain fairly convinced but not entirely certain of my prediction and I say give it 5 years at best if this happens but Its likely to be much sooner then that.

Also your example of what capitalism does has a dark side....whats powering the light switch, probably non-renewable energy or nuclear power right? well those have some downsides. Then the feeding us with abundant food grown hundreds of miles away? who grows and harvests this food, are they paid a living wage? or are they citizens of a third world country being exploited by the 'capitalists'? It seems our capitalist culture is basically: mine, mine, mine, more, more more, waaaaa it wont be enough till we have everything and all of it. Or if you prefer pretty damn imperialistic still and its going to take its toll. I think that prediction Marx made will soon come to be, or something like it.

Are you sure we actually got nothing....I mean the theory is all the money poured into that was to trickle down, you sure you didn't at least get some left over dregs. Anyways in all seriousness, you're right us regular citizens kind of got screwed by that deal.

I suppose everything could get thrown out of whack if no one went to work tomorrow, or a nuclear war started, or if the intergalactic conquerors reached us and destroyed all life. Even a war would be unpleasant. But I don't live my life thinking that way. For one, thinking about what could go wrong does little to motivate me. For another, it tends to be a self-fullfilling prophecy. If you believe the world is going into the great meat grinder, you look for evidence that it is.

And the way I see it, a complete social collapse wouldn't be that bad. I have already made the determination that I can't compete in such a society, and would just go in my room to die. It's better to die happy than live miserably, IMO.

I can't avoid considering what might come of what all I've observed, its interesting to me. I suppose I don't think it can get much worse for me but it probably wont get much better. So I am rather neutral about this whole collapse senerio if it happens then I would try to survive, if not then well I still will continue trying to survive.

It is said about the South that we did not notice The Great Depression, we were still dealing with Reconstruction.

Areas of this country never had a boom. Some, like Texas, with lots of land, the price of houses hardly changed. They were cheap to start with. Land was cheap, no one paid more than the cost of building.

California, short term speculation driven by a growing population, exceeded the traditional 3% a year rise, often topping 10%. It was better than the market could return, so hot money flooded in, and Nevada, Florida, Arizona.

This was the retail investor, who wanted a big house and a few rentals, worth millions, then a million less than owed.

Misuse of Capital. Builders were a bit better, they bought materials, labor, but then over produced for the market, because the money was there to build another few hundred.

The big players were buying factories to send over the border, and they did make out on Pensions avoided, cheaper labor, but were not ready for that State Owned factory built next door that hired the workers you trained, had better machines, and made your product better and cheaper.

Those who went to China got a Red Army Clone.

All of this was funded with Securities, which are insured, and when the whole market went down, AIG owed, and they were not the only one. Bear Sterns, Merril Lynch, were hardly as legit as Bernie Madoff.

While the goal is getting Capital, Profits, the sector that took the greatest loss was retail, people who were in debt for $3 million, worth $5 million on paper, are now still in debt for $3 million, and worth -$1.5 million.

They might survive and pay off the debt in twenty years, but they will never regain having a several million dollar line of credit. They will not restore their Capital, ever.

We have never recovered from a Recession without Housing, Construction, Manufacturing, leading the way. We no longer have those things.

Retailing is in decline, except Walmart, and several thousand Malls closed from lack of demand. Circut City, Borders, each gave up many acres of retail space, Sears and Penney's K-Mart, are cutting back stores.

Staples is going to kill Office Depot, or Office Max, for there is not enough for all to survive. I shop Shopplet, which may kill two out of three.

This is worse than a L shaped Recession, like 1873, which lasted a decade. They had a floor, we are drifting lower like the Japanese, or ourselves for the last 40 years.

We have been kicking the can down the road, it is wearing out.

There is still too much Capital, seeking gain, at someones expense, and unlike Industrial Production, once useful, Capital is now Speculation, driving up the price of Oil, Grain, since that Housing thing did not work.

People once did things, made music, put on plays, held dances, before they were turned into workers and consumers. They knew their neighbors, and worked together to make life better.

Keeping a garden, some chickens, a pig and a cow is not much work and will feed you.

To be retired means various things. After serving 25 years in the Roman Army, they were given about two acres of unimproved land. It was enough to raise a family.

My hometown of Rochester, NY had a similar dynamic. We were the company town for Eastman Kodak, which started to sputter sometime in the 1990s. When digital cameras replaced film around 2000, there were massive layoffs and factory closures. Most of those jobs were highly skilled. Anyways, we crashed so hard during the dot-com recession that we barely noticed the recent recession. In fact, we were the only metro in the country to see an increase in median housing prices in 2009.

I think the rust belt may be a saving grace of this economy because of cheap housing. The factory jobs are not coming back, of course, but there are many houses on the market for less than $200,000. I have seen decent Victorian houses in Buffalo go for $150k. With the cost of living so high virtually anywhere else, I would not be surprised if housing is a selling point for cities like Buffalo, Cleveland or Detroit.

Yes, do come over to survivalistboards.com. There are a fair share of idiots there, as everywhere else. The politics are very right-wing and you are better off to ignore and avoid getting involved. But by and large, it is a good ecommunity. People occaionally even come up with really good ideas!

What he is saying is, we've artificially "boomed" the economy by turning this:


Into this:


That is not progress.

The problem is, the masses cannot buy $200K houses stocking shelves at Walmart or working the drivethru at Taco Bell.

The economy will fail simply because all government revenues will go to paying interest on the debt rather than for goods and services.

I am old, We have been talking about this since the 60s, Club of Rome, that resources cannot keep growth going.

The projection was economic decline, and that has been the last forty years. We have less income than then, figuring my $42 a week was silver, now $1200 a week.

We got here on cheap oil and easy to mine coal, and used it up.

The good is all those jobs and products sent to China when oil was $13, are now paying transport with oil at $100. China has been using several trillion tons of coal to fuel their development, and the easy coal is gone.

What we did over 150 years they did in twenty, with the same result. Input costs are too high to support industry making a profit.

The answer is production very close to market. Trucking produce from California to the east coast has gotten to cost more than the food.

What was so cheap it killed local market gardening, now makes local production very profitable.

Products made in China are disposable, because there is no tech support, no parts supply, and what there is comes used from an electronics junkyard in Hong Kong. A small package costs five gallons of gas shipping.

For anything that has to work, needs parts available the next morning, and has not only tech support but local service, that can have your sewer works up and running today. Or your garbage trucks, medical machines, main frame computers, electric motors and transformers, has to be local manufacture, parts stocked, and knowledgeable service.

Besides that towns, cities, owe almost a trillion in pensions more than they have. Tax income is declining, the trend is towns no longer able to have local police, fire, and going with County services, Counties are also beyond broke. I feel for them as much as I feel for those who lied and stole their way into a big house in Nevada. They will go back to selling used cars.

Services, water, sewer, education, fire, still have to be supplied. Perhaps nomadic tribes of water fixers could come. At least keep a fountain going in the town square. Street lights are being turned out, they cannot afford them.

Through 99 week unemployment and food stamps we have been paying people to not work, that has to continue. We are never likely to have enough jobs again.

One trend is small organic farms around cities, also organic meat, where you can meet a chicken, feed it, then chop off its head. fresh is a selling point. The Amish had troubles over selling raw milk, which they have been doing for hundreds of years, so being smart, they give it away, and get people coming to the farm produce stand to get it. Giving it away is legal.

Europe can pay $9 a gallon for gas, their countries are mostly as big as Rhode Island, Maryland, Jersey. It would all fit in Texas. Hauling from California to the east at $9 diesel, will end the business.

Getting a good team from the Amish, good breeders and trainers, a plow, harrow, and wagon, harness, a local plowman could make out. Always something needs to be delivered. The price of heating oil is making firewood look good.

A town of a couple of thousand is a good customer, for food, fuel.

This change is going to be long term, a slow down, local production, and it could be very scenic. Five acres an hour by wagon out of town, five acres of gardens, plodding through town several days a week, selling food, trading for scrap metal,

I like to eat out, my most rembered places, one served black bread and cabbage soup, another goulosh of Hungry, one in New Orleans, Red Beans and rice, with sausage and french bread. That was the whole menu, and it was cheap, plenty, hot and filling. One on the west coast, a to go box full of rice, topped with chicken or beef, and a good meal and lunch tomorrow.

Plain food sells.

Small houses and cars are not profitable for large builders, but they are the best for low cost of ownership.

We will change, from consumers with too much, to having less, but better.

Cities will house the employed who will seek to live the old way, and the unemployed who will fill the housing. All across the countryside people will live the old way, where an acre with cottage and garden, is everything needed. The employed will have to support, their employer, government, and a mass of retired, children, unemployed. Country people will support themselves, take care of their neighbors, and be untaxable.

The decline of anything leaves an open path for the rise of something else.

Are you saying technological and scientific advancement will come to an end? If so, I disagree.

However, we must change the mode our economy operates in. Currently the economy is health only if our consumption of goods and services continues to outstrip the rate of population growth. Eventually, this madness must cease. We cannot keep increasing our consumption of goods and energy without bound because there is a limit to energy and to the material of which goods our made. If we try to make up for this by faster and faster recycling of used goods even then we will hit a maximum rate of reuse. Either way, we have to get an economy that works in the steady state without becoming intellectually stagnant.

Our salvation would be to find a new frontier akin to what going West was to the U.S. in the 19 th century.

ruveyn

Science and technology have leveled off. More of harvesting the low hanging fruit, and creating Priesthoods that need multi billion colliders for there rites, but cannot produce a better battery.

I find Soil Science a neglected Art. The Biology of life is poisoned with chemicals, and few study what it is, and how to bring it to the best state.

Pesticides, Herbicides, chemical fertilizers, are products from mega corp, and not what is needed for long term.

Europeans developed grains about 35,000 years ago, a lot of food plants come from the Pre Mayan People, and the people of Africa. This seems to have happened at the end of the last ice age.

Now we not only do not develop new food plants, we put all our eggs in one basket with mono culture. Almost all wheat and corn has the same genotype. A new Rust has come out of Africa, spread to Southeast Asia, and last I heard was unstoppable. Also all the drought and dust storm prevention put in place after the Dust Bowl has been dropped for larger production. Tree Line Windbrakes, Wet Lands, were erased.

Next we have no reserves, we live from crop to crop, and ignor a Biblical seven lean years that eat seven fat years. All of the people of old passed on profit and kept reserves.

Science, Technology, and the Corporations that own them are saying "This time it is different." They claim a fix for everything, but are silent in the face of drought, disease, and famine.

Science and Technology are not without a downside.

Dust storms starting up in Oklahoma, the Dow off 200 points, declining crop yields, higher costs, all batter our economy. Worldwide we are seeing explosive brush fires, Russia last year, Australia this year, America both. Conditions are changing in ways our science said, and while we did have the technology to do something about it, it would have been an expense, so it was not done, and now we cannot afford it.

An economics that passes all things through the hands of bankers, government, gets trimmed by both. Survival is cutting the paracites out of the system, growing food to trade to your local neighbors. There all that is exchanged stays local. A Global Economy has too many middlemen.

We have become intellectually stagnant, letting the USDA run food production for Agra Business. Think Rome, when the well connected got all the land, and slaves to farm it. Free Farmers were cut out, Rome had to import food, which lead to wars, expense, a Millitary State, and final falure.

Food has become an export item, but that is mining the soil, with no incentive to lay fields fallow, plant cover crops, rotate crops and grazing, just beat the soil to death in search of short term profit.

What 150 years ago was fertile, grass, with 90,000,000 Buffalo roaming about, is now blowing away, covered in ineatable brush, and locked in drought. No treelines grow along streambeds, no potholes fill with water, and even the soil bacteria are dying. Restoring it is a long term project, and expensive.

The only answer within our reach is the family Homestead, using land, the source of all wealth, in better ways, where we bet our lives on the outcome. Exchanging your labor with the Earth, is the best deal for both.

We can improve soil, enhance the life cycle, and have ever growing production. We can maintain food and water security on a local level. The rest is optional. I do prefer the plow to the spade, and animal power which we depended on for so long has many benefits, self replicating, eats weeds, produces manure, a multi use asset.

My goal is a few acres of rich soil, a Freehold, owing no one. It can provide all I need. This cycle of living in the most debt you can support is ending.

Another method of directing people out of the workforce to spend their labor making a better planet.

Behold The End Is Near! This will not be a soft landing, unless you prepare a personal soft spot.

The World Economy can go out like a light bulb.

I don't really understand this line of thinking. Unless you're independently wealthy, who can support a working farm? Especially during economic collapse & catastrophe? And unless you live in an area of the country well populated with wildlife, how is hunting going to help? Even wilderness areas of the US have seen their wildlife depleted. I've known hunters who are out all day looking for deer and maybe get one per season.

Gardening is no easy task, it can take a lifetime of experience to garden productively. It's not like you plant a packet of seeds and magically get a harvest of cucumbers.

Very few people in this country have land access to garden or hunt. I agree that disaster preparedness is a wise thing to do but sprinkling some seeds in the dirt isn't going to help most people.

Not to mention having to secure your hypothetical farm and hunting land from all the other desperate people scavenging.