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War in Ukraine about to expand ?

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Toy_Soldier
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18 Aug 2014, 5:34 am

Although he probably went too far in theories, still I believe Freud was essentially correct in identifying some basic human motivations.

I am not sure what started Putin's interest in Ukraine, but having started his grab I don't think he will let himself being seen as defeated. He's single now, having divorced his wife, and is in some sense displaying for new females.



staremaster
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27 Aug 2014, 9:04 pm

Well, it seems that some expansion has occurred.
http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd ... rimea.html



auntblabby
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27 Aug 2014, 9:09 pm

Toy_Soldier wrote:
Although he probably went too far in theories, still I believe Freud was essentially correct in identifying some basic human motivations.

I am not sure what started Putin's interest in Ukraine, but having started his grab I don't think he will let himself being seen as defeated. He's single now, having divorced his wife, and is in some sense displaying for new females.

I sorta feel sorry for the type of female that would be impressed by something so mundane as earthly power to dominate other people. I see such females as passive bullies by association.



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27 Aug 2014, 10:11 pm

Toy_Soldier wrote:
I am not sure what started Putin's interest in Ukraine,


Lets see :
  • Preventing further NATO-expansion,
  • preserving their warm water naval base on the Crimea.


And there probably some other factors.



Kraichgauer
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27 Aug 2014, 10:40 pm

Sigbold wrote:
Toy_Soldier wrote:
I am not sure what started Putin's interest in Ukraine,


Lets see :
  • Preventing further NATO-expansion,
  • preserving their warm water naval base on the Crimea.

And there probably some other factors.


Putin has also stated time after time that Ukraine is not a real country, but is just a province of Russia, and so wants it back in his country's control. There's also Putin's ambitions to rebuild the Russian empire.


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Toy_Soldier
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28 Aug 2014, 10:18 am

auntblabby wrote:
Toy_Soldier wrote:
Although he probably went too far in theories, still I believe Freud was essentially correct in identifying some basic human motivations.

I am not sure what started Putin's interest in Ukraine, but having started his grab I don't think he will let himself being seen as defeated. He's single now, having divorced his wife, and is in some sense displaying for new females.

I sorta feel sorry for the type of female that would be impressed by something so mundane as earthly power to dominate other people. I see such females as passive bullies by association.


That's an interesting point, and rings true.

But yes it has happened now, despite such banal excuses as Russia continues to give: 'Our troops got lost and ended up in Ukraine by mistake, etc.'

My only questions now remain how much of Ukraine Putin wants and how much the Ukrainians will resist. Without direct military intervention by NATO, etc, Ukraine stands little chance of stopping the Russians anywhere but where the Russians wish to stop, for now. The Russians have undoubted overwhelming force. And how ugly will it become in oppression against the Ukrainians and will any sort of insurgency arise. Like Hungary and Czechslovakia this feels shameful to me, that the western European countries and the USA do nothing, except token gestures and upgrades to the severity of word choice in condemnations. I'm sure the USA at least will issue a statement of how this will have Mega-bad super nasty consequences.



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28 Aug 2014, 11:23 am

Lots of Russian army "accidents" lately.... 400+ (so thousands operating in Ukraine?).

Or, how to wage war with plausible deniability, 101.



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28 Aug 2014, 12:38 pm

Russia could be in Kiev by tomorrow if they really wanted to, Ukraine has been screaming invasion for months and months and months now so this latest claim doesn't really impress me. The current government in Kiev lies compulsively, it's all Baghdad Bob-esqe propaganda and that's where the western media gets most of its information most of our information on the conflict in this country is complete BS.

The support the separatists are getting from Russia is really overstated, there are volunteers but most of the heavy equipment the separatists have was taken from Ukrainian army. The Ukrainians lost most of their officers with the coup and the leaders now have no combat experience whereas the separatists have a large contingent of veterans from Afghanistan and Chechnya, former Berkut, etc. They're a volunteer army defending their homes whereas the Ukrainians are young conscripts with hardly no training or discipline, they don't want to be there and desertion is rampant. The separatists are familiar with the terrain as they live there and the populace supports them, it really isn't a mystery of how the UA is losing. The separatists have most of the UA encircled right now, the advances the UA made the other month was basically because Kiev abandoned the encircled troops to keep the separatists occupied while took over a few unattended villages for some good PR.

Ukraine needs to come to the bargaining table with the separatists, they've been calling them terrorists and basically think they can kill them into submission. The separatists have as much right to self determination as the people in Kiev that overthrew the government do, you can't not them if you support the coup. Russia has done nothing wrong imo.



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28 Aug 2014, 12:58 pm

Jacoby wrote:
Russia could be in Kiev by tomorrow if they really wanted to, Ukraine has been screaming invasion for months and months and months now so this latest claim doesn't really impress me. The current government in Kiev lies compulsively, it's all Baghdad Bob-esqe propaganda and that's where the western media gets most of its information most of our information on the conflict in this country is complete BS.

The support the separatists are getting from Russia is really overstated, there are volunteers but most of the heavy equipment the separatists have was taken from Ukrainian army. The Ukrainians lost most of their officers with the coup and the leaders now have no combat experience whereas the separatists have a large contingent of veterans from Afghanistan and Chechnya, former Berkut, etc. They're a volunteer army defending their homes whereas the Ukrainians are young conscripts with hardly no training or discipline, they don't want to be there and desertion is rampant. The separatists are familiar with the terrain as they live there and the populace supports them, it really isn't a mystery of how the UA is losing. The separatists have most of the UA encircled right now, the advances the UA made the other month was basically because Kiev abandoned the encircled troops to keep the separatists occupied while took over a few unattended villages for some good PR.

Ukraine needs to come to the bargaining table with the separatists, they've been calling them terrorists and basically think they can kill them into submission. The separatists have as much right to self determination as the people in Kiev that overthrew the government do, you can't not them if you support the coup. Russia has done nothing wrong imo.


We had a bunch of yahoos in this country thinking they had the right to secede anytime they wanted, but Lincoln demonstrated that killing them into submission actually worked.


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28 Aug 2014, 3:04 pm

Toy_Soldier wrote:
Although he probably went too far in theories, still I believe Freud was essentially correct in identifying some basic human motivations.

I am not sure what started Putin's interest in Ukraine, but having started his grab I don't think he will let himself being seen as defeated. He's single now, having divorced his wife, and is in some sense displaying for new females.


Maybe he's like John Hinckly Jr. He's just trying to impress Jody Foster!



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28 Aug 2014, 3:21 pm

Kraichgauer wrote:
Sigbold wrote:
Toy_Soldier wrote:
I am not sure what started Putin's interest in Ukraine,


Lets see :
  • Preventing further NATO-expansion,
  • preserving their warm water naval base on the Crimea.

And there probably some other factors.


Putin has also stated time after time that Ukraine is not a real country, but is just a province of Russia, and so wants it back in his country's control. There's also Putin's ambitions to rebuild the Russian empire.


There are many reasons a Russian head of state would be interested in the Ukraine, both legit, and illegit. I dont blame him for resisting NATO recruiting the Ukraine. An independent, but nonaligned Ukraine acting as a buffer between Moscow and NATO is the ideal. And I dont blame Obama/NATO for resisting Moscow trying to gobble up the Ukraine either. Its two sided. If I were an apologist for Putin I might say that Ukraine is to Russia what Ireland is to England ( once part of its empire), and that eastern Ukraine is like Northern Ireland. Putin could claim he was not trying to retake all of Ukraine back into a new Russian Empire, he just wants the part where the people WANT him to take over ( ie analogous to the mostly Protestant Unionist Ulster that stayed in the UK when the south bolted for independence).



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28 Aug 2014, 5:38 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
Toy_Soldier wrote:
Although he probably went too far in theories, still I believe Freud was essentially correct in identifying some basic human motivations.

I am not sure what started Putin's interest in Ukraine, but having started his grab I don't think he will let himself being seen as defeated. He's single now, having divorced his wife, and is in some sense displaying for new females.


Maybe he's like John Hinckly Jr. He's just trying to impress Jody Foster!


Maybe... maybe... she is an attractive lady. But I don't think she would be interested.



Toy_Soldier
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28 Aug 2014, 5:44 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
Sigbold wrote:
Toy_Soldier wrote:
I am not sure what started Putin's interest in Ukraine,


Lets see :
  • Preventing further NATO-expansion,
  • preserving their warm water naval base on the Crimea.

And there probably some other factors.


Putin has also stated time after time that Ukraine is not a real country, but is just a province of Russia, and so wants it back in his country's control. There's also Putin's ambitions to rebuild the Russian empire.


There are many reasons a Russian head of state would be interested in the Ukraine, both legit, and illegit. I dont blame him for resisting NATO recruiting the Ukraine. An independent, but nonaligned Ukraine acting as a buffer between Moscow and NATO is the ideal. And I dont blame Obama/NATO for resisting Moscow trying to gobble up the Ukraine either. Its two sided. If I were an apologist for Putin I might say that Ukraine is to Russia what Ireland is to England ( once part of its empire), and that eastern Ukraine is like Northern Ireland. Putin could claim he was not trying to retake all of Ukraine back into a new Russian Empire, he just wants the part where the people WANT him to take over ( ie analogous to the mostly Protestant Unionist Ulster that stayed in the UK when the south bolted for independence).


I really doubt most Ukrainians, even in the eastern provinces (where ethnic Russians are at most 1/3rd) wanted to be part of Russia again. The revolution occurred because the President was taking them down that road. And when it started to get hot, the President fled to Russia.



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28 Aug 2014, 5:55 pm

Toy_Soldier wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
Sigbold wrote:
Toy_Soldier wrote:
I am not sure what started Putin's interest in Ukraine,


Lets see :
  • Preventing further NATO-expansion,
  • preserving their warm water naval base on the Crimea.

And there probably some other factors.


Putin has also stated time after time that Ukraine is not a real country, but is just a province of Russia, and so wants it back in his country's control. There's also Putin's ambitions to rebuild the Russian empire.


There are many reasons a Russian head of state would be interested in the Ukraine, both legit, and illegit. I dont blame him for resisting NATO recruiting the Ukraine. An independent, but nonaligned Ukraine acting as a buffer between Moscow and NATO is the ideal. And I dont blame Obama/NATO for resisting Moscow trying to gobble up the Ukraine either. Its two sided. If I were an apologist for Putin I might say that Ukraine is to Russia what Ireland is to England ( once part of its empire), and that eastern Ukraine is like Northern Ireland. Putin could claim he was not trying to retake all of Ukraine back into a new Russian Empire, he just wants the part where the people WANT him to take over ( ie analogous to the mostly Protestant Unionist Ulster that stayed in the UK when the south bolted for independence).


I really doubt most Ukrainians, even in the eastern provinces (where ethnic Russians are at most 1/3rd) wanted to be part of Russia again. The revolution occurred because the President was taking them down that road. And when it started to get hot, the President fled to Russia.


That isn't the goal of these separatists, at least not initially. The goal was to create a federal system granting the east autonomy, now that they're been declared terrorists and have been ruthlessly bombed for months and months I'm not sure that is a viable solution.



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29 Aug 2014, 12:59 pm

Putin basically just dropped the gauntlet. The only thing the west can do now is put up or shut up.

Although Ukraine is not part of NATO I think NATO should send significant forces to east Ukraine at the request of the Ukraine gov. to show Russia s**t is about to hit the fan and to back off. Russia's economy cannot sustain a war but the EU can. The missing key ingredient is EU testicular fortitude however....something that has been quite lacking these past 50 years.



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29 Aug 2014, 1:35 pm

Dantac wrote:
Putin basically just dropped the gauntlet. The only thing the west can do now is put up or shut up.

Although Ukraine is not part of NATO I think NATO should send significant forces to east Ukraine at the request of the Ukraine gov. to show Russia sh** is about to hit the fan and to back off. Russia's economy cannot sustain a war but the EU can. The missing key ingredient is EU testicular fortitude however....something that has been quite lacking these past 50 years.


Put up or shut up? Are you volunteering? Do you have testicular fortitude? Are you prepared to sacrifice your life and risk nuclear confrontation because the west Ukrainians can't get along with east Ukrainians? It astounds me that people think this way, I don't even understand how people that know anything about this conflict can defend with the government in Kiev is doing. Do you believe the Kosovo is rightfully part of Serbia, if so how can you reconcile that with denying the right of self determination to the eastern Ukrainians? How can you find an violent coup that overthrew the democratically elected government to be legitimate but then pull the rug from under the east Ukrainians?