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Moody’s Analytics: TRUMP is on his way to an easy 2020 win

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EzraS
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16 Oct 2019, 8:54 pm

If George W Bush can get reelected anything is possible.



LoveNotHate
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16 Oct 2019, 9:11 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:
Why aren't people talking about how Trump, in 2016, narrowly won states which usually vote Democratic...and won them by the slimmest of margins?

If Trump loses those states in 2020 which he narrowly won in 2016, he's lost the election. It's those "swing states" that are the most important. Most states, at this point, are inevitably "Democrat," or inevitably "Republican."

The point of the model is that it says people don't vote out incumbent presidents when the economy is doing so well.


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DoTheTw1zt
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16 Oct 2019, 9:13 pm

LoveNotHate wrote:
kraftiekortie wrote:
Why aren't people talking about how Trump, in 2016, narrowly won states which usually vote Democratic...and won them by the slimmest of margins?

If Trump loses those states in 2020 which he narrowly won in 2016, he's lost the election. It's those "swing states" that are the most important. Most states, at this point, are inevitably "Democrat," or inevitably "Republican."

The point of the model is that it says people don't vote out incumbent presidents when the economy is doing so well.



IOW it's always about money. We're a greedy nation that's willing to tolerate all kinds of corrupt things as long as it means more money for us.



Magna
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16 Oct 2019, 9:19 pm

DoTheTw1zt wrote:
I predict King Trump will win again and usher in a new dark age.

:skull: :king: :skull:


If that happened, what will you do with another four years? I actually feel bad for people I hear about that have felt like these years of Trump's presidency have been the worst of their lives they've been so utterly affected. There are really people like that. People that have been so affected that they've developed depression and other illnesses. People that have felt on a daily basis since the election that their lives have been very bad to horrible. What will those people do if there's a reelection? Will they look back twenty years from now and say: "To this day I can say that the worst 8 years of my life where when this guy named Trump was president."?



DoTheTw1zt
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16 Oct 2019, 9:33 pm

Magna wrote:
DoTheTw1zt wrote:
I predict King Trump will win again and usher in a new dark age.

:skull: :king: :skull:


If that happened, what will you do with another four years? I actually feel bad for people I hear about that have felt like these years of Trump's presidency have been the worst of their lives they've been so utterly affected. There are really people like that. People that have been so affected that they've developed depression and other illnesses. People that have felt on a daily basis since the election that their lives have been very bad to horrible. What will those people do if there's a reelection? Will they look back twenty years from now and say: "To this day I can say that the worst 8 years of my life where when this guy named Trump was president."?



Meh, IF he causes World War 3 or a second American Civil War then I'm finished. I'm either going to attempt to run away to another country or just simply end it all. :shrug:



Antrax
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16 Oct 2019, 10:12 pm

LoveNotHate wrote:
kraftiekortie wrote:
Why aren't people talking about how Trump, in 2016, narrowly won states which usually vote Democratic...and won them by the slimmest of margins?

If Trump loses those states in 2020 which he narrowly won in 2016, he's lost the election. It's those "swing states" that are the most important. Most states, at this point, are inevitably "Democrat," or inevitably "Republican."

The point of the model is that it says people don't vote out incumbent presidents when the economy is doing so well.


Past presidents have been more popular under those circumstances. Also we're a ways off from November 2020 yet.


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EzraS
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16 Oct 2019, 10:43 pm

DoTheTw1zt wrote:
LoveNotHate wrote:
kraftiekortie wrote:
Why aren't people talking about how Trump, in 2016, narrowly won states which usually vote Democratic...and won them by the slimmest of margins?

If Trump loses those states in 2020 which he narrowly won in 2016, he's lost the election. It's those "swing states" that are the most important. Most states, at this point, are inevitably "Democrat," or inevitably "Republican."

The point of the model is that it says people don't vote out incumbent presidents when the economy is doing so well.



IOW it's always about money. We're a greedy nation that's willing to tolerate all kinds of corrupt things as long as it means more money for us.


Yeah they don't like hardship. They like not having to worry as much about making ends meet and being able to provide well for their children. How dare they.



ASPartOfMe
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17 Oct 2019, 5:12 am

LoveNotHate wrote:
kraftiekortie wrote:
Why aren't people talking about how Trump, in 2016, narrowly won states which usually vote Democratic...and won them by the slimmest of margins?

If Trump loses those states in 2020 which he narrowly won in 2016, he's lost the election. It's those "swing states" that are the most important. Most states, at this point, are inevitably "Democrat," or inevitably "Republican."

The point of the model is that it says people don't vote out incumbent presidents when the economy is doing so well.

I do not think people perceive the economy is doing well. In past full employment periods they worked at jobs that were more steady and secure, in the past both partners did not need to work at multiple jobs just to get to a living paycheck to paycheck situation to nearly the degree they do now.


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LoveNotHate
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17 Oct 2019, 9:13 am

ASPartOfMe wrote:
LoveNotHate wrote:
kraftiekortie wrote:
Why aren't people talking about how Trump, in 2016, narrowly won states which usually vote Democratic...and won them by the slimmest of margins?

If Trump loses those states in 2020 which he narrowly won in 2016, he's lost the election. It's those "swing states" that are the most important. Most states, at this point, are inevitably "Democrat," or inevitably "Republican."

The point of the model is that it says people don't vote out incumbent presidents when the economy is doing so well.

I do not think people perceive the economy is doing well. In past full employment periods they worked at jobs that were more steady and secure, in the past both partners did not need to work at multiple jobs just to get to a living paycheck to paycheck situation to nearly the degree they do now.

Trump's approval rating on the economy is at 50%.

So, sure, half the country is not happy about his economics.


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kraftiekortie
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17 Oct 2019, 9:24 am

The thing is:

Enough people, in the "swing states," would have to become disenchanted with Trump----whether because of his economics, his morals, or whatever---for him to lose in 2020.

I feel like this is a distinct possibility.

Trump won many of the "swing states" by less than 1 percentage point in 2016.



ASPartOfMe
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17 Oct 2019, 12:01 pm

One thing to think about, most of us me included are re litigating the 2016 election in one way or another, specifically assuming that the swing states and issues of 2016 will be the swing states and issues of 2020.


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