Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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Sounds like a good question. kraftiekortie provided some good answers. What would be my approach?

I see two major issues here. The first is related to the cruise ship protocols and the second is related to the individual national response imposed on the cruise ships.

So to begin with I am no expert. Other than the fact that I took my wife on a cruise last year around Hawaii for a Second Honeymoon or the fact that I use to get the influenza bug each year and suffer immensely from it - I have no experience.

So what comments do I have on the cruise ship protocol. A cruise ship operates on two levels. There is the passengers and then there is the crew. The day I walked onto the cruise ship, the first thing they did was to divide up all the passengers into small groups and assign an emergency meet-up location. We then assembled that evening and they passed onto all the passengers the protocols for evacuating the ship through lifeboats should the ship be in danger of sinking. The ship would alert passengers of this emergency should it occur by distinctive pattern of horn alarms. So even though the passengers were there to have a good time, safety came first and there were protocols in place to protect the passengers, and the crew was ultimately in charge.

So that the protocols used by the cruise ship Diamond Princess did not protect 624 passengers on the ship that became infected with the coronavirus, so the protocols need a major revision. What type of revision. I would probably begin with looking at the protocols used by the U.S. Navy aboard a submarine. What would the ship's captain of a submarine do if one of its crew became infected with a coronavirus. That would be my initial model. It is also important to know why the cruise ship protocols failed. Therefore an elaborate post mortem needs to be conducted. How did the passengers become infected?

I would probably look at ships design. I would probably focus on the recycled air in cabins. The HVAC system on the ship IMHO needs to incorporate UV radiation treatment in order to kill biologicals in the air and also must be kept to an ideal relative humidity of between 40 and 60 percent.

Then I would look at PPE (Personal Protective Equipment). Everyone outside their personal cabins should use PPE to prevent the spread of infections. (This applies to the passengers and crew alike.) As far as PPE, I would probably require everyone to have available face mask similar to RespoKare Anti-Viral Face Mask This type of face mask does not only filter out viruses it kills them. Kills them dead. It kills 99.99% of coronavirus within 1 minute. I think PPEs should also include goggles to protect the eyes from exposure. Medical exam gloves to protect the hands and bottles of hand sanitizers that kill 99.99% of the germs within 15 seconds.

Generally the safe exposure distance of person to person contact is around 3 to 4 feet; and outside the cabins, passengers should maintain this distance. So all group activities are out.

There are two other routes in which the virus might be transmitted and those are food and laundry. When we were aboard the cruise ship there was a variety of meal options available. One of the most used was the buffet. Meals are a critical weakness in maintaining exposure controls. Actually almost all the restaurants on the ship would rank poorly. So the primary approach would be to substitute restaurants with having meals distributed directly to the rooms. But even that might be insufficient because the members of the cooking staff and the porters that bring the food to the rooms might be contaminated with the flu. Probably the best approach is to issue a supply of MRE (Meals Ready-to-Eat) to the passengers. Passengers wouldn't like this option but then again I suspect they might not like to land up on a slab in the morgue either.

The laundry operations is another exposure route. If the staff performing this operation they could potential contaminate many passenger. Generally the ship's staff change the sheets and towels every day. These might be needed to be bathed in UV lights prior to being distributed to each cabin. They should just be dropped off at the cabin door and the passengers should put these away in order to minimize exposure.

Each of the cabins on the ship had television sets and they had a separate channel set aside for ship safety. So this is a very good means for education the passengers on PPE and other ship status related to this threat.

The second problem is related to the individual national response imposed on the cruise ships. The cruise ship Diamond Princess was docked in the harbor in Tokyo Bay, Japan under quarantine for weeks. Each day more and more passengers became infected. Worldwide there are around 314 cruise ships. Each year, these cruise ships carry around 24 million passengers from around the world on cruises. When the coronavirus struck, these cruise ship became disowned. They were orphaned. Look at the cruise ship MS Westerdam. The luxury liner spent 13 days at sea after being denied entry by five ports including (Thailand, the Philippines, Guam, and Japan) amid an escalating coronavirus crisis before it was finally allowed to land in Cambodia. The ship was orphaned.

In the future there should be a type of global response available. There should be someplace where cruise ships can land and disembark its passengers in the event of another coronavirus and place them under quarantine. For example Australia might offer a site such as Christmas Island and designate it as a global quarantine site. The island has a sea port and an international airport. It also has quarantine facilities. Such a facility could be expanded and medical staff from around the globe could man the facility in the event of another coronavirus. A place for a cruise ship irrespective of its registry could head to find a shelter.

Last edited by jimmy m on 19 Feb 2020, 3:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Who would pay for the global response? It seems like the world is getting more divided these days.

Who is paying for this right now! This virus outbreak is wreaking economies, especially China's. It seems like there first must be a vision and once a vision is well articulated. Then nations need to step up to the plate and make it happen. Or suffer the consequences.

Princess Cruises (the cruise line that operates the Diamond Princess) has announced the cancellation of dozens of upcoming voyages amid the ongoing coronavirus outbreak.

News of the Princess Cruise cancellations comes after the Diamond Princess was quarantined at a port in Yokohama after passengers tested positive for COVID-19. The cruise line began announcing modifications and cancellations to its itineraries as early as last week. Princess Cruises blamed the cancellations on ongoing travel restrictions and the closure of ports in Asia, along with its concern for the guests and crew on its ships.

Source: Princess Cruises cancels dozens of voyages due to coronavirus concerns, closed ports

If my count is correct, the number of coronavirus patients in the U.S. is now 37. Eleven more American evacuees transported to the U.S. from the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship have tested positive for the coronavirus.

This coronavirus has now killed about three times the amount of people in China than were sickened during the SARS outbreak in the early 2000s. The SARS outbreak killed 349 people in mainland China in 2002-2003 -- with 744 deaths and 8,096 infections globally, according to the CDC. The new coronavirus has claimed the lives of 2,236 people and infected 75,465 around the globe. Only 11 people have died outside mainland China.

The U.S. has 37 patients, including 11 confirmed so far at a Nebraska hospital, 19 in California, one in Texas, one in Wisconsin, one in Arizona, one in Washington state, one in Massachusetts and two in Illinois. [Some of these patients are currently being relocated to a hospital in Washington state so the count might be a little off.]

Source: At least 11 American Diamond Princess evacuees test positive for coronavirus, another doctor in China dies

I think it is possible that there are even more cases in the US then is being reported. I bet some of the cases are being misdiagnosed as the Flu since it is Flu season.

In Australia there are also claims of a conspiracy to silence an outbreak but without disclosure it's impossible to be certain?

It looks as if it's got out. Containment has failed.

Several cities/towns in Italy are in lockdown, and the number of cases there and in Iran and South Korea are escalating rapidly, ( and still no cases at all declared in Indonesia!? ... ) and many cases with double transmission outside China or no discernible connection with China or anyone from there.

Very low to negligible fatality rate for young people up to age 30, and overall rate of "just" 2.6%, ( still 10-20 times more than regular flu though ), but fairly serious mortality rates ( from 6% - 14% ) for old and/or ill. And 20% of infected fall seriously ill and need intensive healthcare.

So probably not enough to change the world in itself, unlike Plague, etc but, even more than Spanish Flu the chaos of coping with the infected may really make a mess in many countries.

Yikes!

NB. This seems to be an excellent site for data tracking:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The various nations have set up firewalls. Some are better than others. As firewalls fail, the unaffected nations will modify their firewalls to compensate. But for the individual nations that are affected, panic can set in. It is best to prepare a little for such a possibility should the firewall fail. It is a proactive approach.

As ouinon2 has reported, it looks like major firewalls have been breached in Italy, Iran and South Korea.

Italy
Italy is considered the site of Europe's first major outbreak and the largest outside of Asia. The number of infected cases jumped to 152, compared to just three 10 days ago.

The country is currently scrambling to disrupt the spread of the virus, which has seen 110 cases in Milan, its financial district and Venice, known as a famous hub for tourists throughout the world. Events and soccer matches were canceled in the country, while some of its movie theatres were reportedly shuttered, including Milan's legendary La Scala.

Iran
A staggering 50 people died in the Iranian city of Qom from the new coronavirus in the month of February, Iran's semiofficial ILNA news agency reported on Monday. The new death toll is significantly higher than the latest number of confirmed cases that Iranian officials had reported just a few hours earlier, which stood at just 12 deaths out of 47 cases, according to state TV.

The 50 deaths date back as far as Feb. 13, according to an Iranian official. Iran previously reported its cases and deaths from the virus on Feb. 19.

Authorities are struggling to contain and understand the outbreak in those countries, where infected cases have skyrocketed as they have increased over 2,000 percent in the past couple weeks.

South Korea
Cases in South Korea increased to 763 on Monday, with 161 more people infected within the last 24 hours. The country had just 28 infected cases on Feb. 14.

President Moon Jae-in called for "unprecedented, powerful" steps on Sunday to fight the virus which is spreading rapidly throughout the country — including the capital Seoul. He raised the threat level to "red alert," its highest national threat level for the first time in a decade.

More than 140 of South Korea's new cases were from Daegu, a city of 2.5 million people. Five of the countries seven deaths occurred at a hospital near the city.

Global Impact
Iranian travelers with the virus have also been confirmed in Canada, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates.

The Dow dropped almost 1,000 points this morning. Most of this sell-off appears related to the coronavirus breaking through the containment barriers set up by Iran, Italy and South Korea. One of the perceptions that has been shattered is that the nations with advanced health care systems are somewhat immune from this coronavirus. Dr. Siegel has said, "I've been saying that it's all about health care infrastructure, that China doesn't have it, we have it, other Western countries have it. Well, guess what, South Korea has a fantastic health care system. They tested over 20,000 people and ended up with over 800 positive cases. That's showing that this is a highly contagious virus that is spreading despite the best efforts of top health systems to contain it."

The FBI has purchased $40,000 worth of hand sanitizer from PDI Healthcare and face masks from 3M “in case the coronavirus becomes a pandemic in the United States," according to an acquisition document signed Friday.

Source: Global outbreak causes coronavirus pandemic fears after cases jump in Italy, South Korea and Iran

After firewalls break down, panic sets in. Latest videos out of Italy, show people panicking, store shelves empty.

Last edited by jimmy m on 24 Feb 2020, 12:17 pm, edited 3 times in total.

A problem is that coronavirus is probably being mistaken by sufferers and primary care doctors for the flu outside of the known infection areas.

I suspect you are right. That is why the creation of the specific coronavirus DNA test kits were so important. A few weeks ago I mentioned that the development of these test kits were one of the major milestones in countering this virus.

In South Korea, health officials indicated they will test all of Daegu's residents that have cold-like symptoms, which could be 28,000 people.

One of the features that will come into play in Europe is the "open borders policy".

Italy is the first nation in Europe to see an explosion of coronavirus cases. The new virus presents Europe with perhaps its greatest challenge since the 2015 migration crisis. It could test the principle of open borders within much of Europe and the vaunted but strained European public health systems.
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Another point to note is that since Iran has essentially an open borders region with Pakistan. Pakistan’s 596-mile border with Iran, a largely lawless area with few border controls, poses particular challenges in controlling the spread of the virus. They also have an open border region with Afghanistan. So the containment wall may break along this open border region and Pakistan and Afghanistan may see an explosion in cases shortly.
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Bruce Aylward, a Canadian doctor and epidemiologist who led the global health body’s mission to China, credited the draconian lockdown measures imposed in late January for controlling the crisis, but he also warned that it could quickly flare up again if measures were not sustained.

Since late January, the Chinese government has sealed off cities, shut down businesses and schools, and ordered people to avoid mass gatherings. Dr. Alyward said those measures had most likely prevented tens or even hundreds of thousands of infections.

“In the face of what has been a previously unknown disease, China has taken one of the most ancient strategies for infectious disease control and rolled out probably the most ambitious and I would say agile and aggressive disease-contagion efforts in history,” Dr. Aylward, who led a team to China, said at a news conference in Beijing on Monday.

WHO has warned that the world is not prepared for a global outbreak. So I suspect other nations may follow the lead of China in trying to contain this coronavirus. Those measures are impose a quarantene, shut down all transportation leaving the region, shelter in place, close schools and businesses and gatherings.

Source: Coronavirus Live Updates: W.H.O. Warns the World Is Unready for Global Spread

I've been wondering to what extent various countries, whether proceeding honestly/transparently or dishonestly, ( with respect to the testing, containment, declaring of cases, etc ), are being swayed by calculations weighing up probable loss of life/number of fatalities against economic factors ( catastrophic disruption of trade routes, supply *and* demand/consumption, etc ).

ie. whether some countries will decide that they would rather lose 2% - 3% or even 5% of their population, ( mostly the oldest and the already ill ), than suffer an equivalent or greater % cut in their GDP/financial "growth" as a result of the draconian quarantine and healthcare initiatives otherwise required ....

... and if a country decides to prioritise its economy over the old, and ill, and more or less inevitably the poorest of its citizens, whether their most effective strategy would be simply failing to test or screen effectively for as long as possible, until international attention and outcry makes that impossible/difficult ....

.... Obviously countries *are* free in the modern world to concentrate on the economy, on making money, rather than on protecting the weak, eg. a great many of them .... systemically discriminate against/exploit non-whites, women, the less educated, mentally ill, disabled, etc etc etc without attracting noticeable or crippling amounts of international disapproval .... but where is the line drawn?

... or doesn't it matter so long as it is invisible/has a good enough cover story like "austerity"?

What if a country in the East ( middle or far ), said outright "we value our country's gdp and/or the wealth of our most successful /strongest more than the lives of our weakest and so we're not going to take any but the most rudimentary measures to contain or treat this" ... on the basis of "sound"/"sensible" pragmatic budgeting/cost assessment, informing us, for example, ( erroneously as it happens, considering how modern money systems actually work ), that "there is no magic money tree"?

Would the UK, for instance, have the right to criticise any country that chose to neglect, or pretended to fail at, or never really began, screening, testing, containment and treatment because it had decided to save money/to protect wealth instead?

I've just been wondering!

I didn't go back to read every page of this post so forgive me if this has already been said, but I read a theory from an epidemiologist who said this virus can't be contained. It's too late. He believes 40-70% of the world population will get this virus. It's probable then that some of us on WP will get this virus and hopefully can report first hand what it's like.

Masks aren't an entirely effective preventative since the virus could land on your eyeballs and infect you from what I've read.

Hopefully the mortality rate stays very low at the 2-3%. I can't help but be skeptical. One good thing in a way is that since this is spreading the world will get accurate information about this virus. Either China was telling the truth, or China was lying about the number of infected and the number who have died. We'll find out.

If this was in fact created in a Chinese lab rather than being of entirely natural origin, I think China should be held financially accountable for this as they would be grossly negligent. In short, they should be sued internationally back to the Stone Age; class action lawsuits by victims and families as well as countries. If they were to refuse to make restitution then I would hope the world would boycott them and that their name would be "mud".

Unfortunately we have several cases now in Israel also. High alert because South Korean tourists were here for 2 weeks prior to diagnosis, all are infected and came into contact with hundreds of people, hotels, places of prayer of all religions, schools. Hundreds are quarantined. It's an integral world and this virus won't be contained. No fatalities though among the infected thank goodness. We have built separate hospital units with separate sewage systems and hands-off treatment for those who are positive.5 year imprisonment penalty for those who don't adhere to home quarantine.