Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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25 Feb 2020, 7:48 pm

Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the agency’s director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in a press briefing on Tuesday that the time for Americans to begin preparing for a potential outbreak of the virus is now.

“As more and more countries experience community spread, successful containment at our borders becomes harder and harder,” Messonnier said. “Ultimately, we expect we will see community spread in this country. It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore, but rather more a question of when this will happen, and how many people in this country will have severe illness.”

Source: Coronavirus disruption to ‘everyday’ life in US ‘may be severe,’ CDC official says

In another article, Tucker Carlson noted:

"Officials in our country have reported about three dozen cases of the virus in the U.S. so far. But that's a misleading number. The truth is, we have no real idea how many Americans are infected. Why? Here's why. As of yesterday, only three public health labs in the entire country were properly equipped to detect the virus."

"Fewer than 500 people in America have even been tested for coronavirus out of a population of 327 million," Carlson added. "Keep in mind that 5.5 million people ride the New York City subway every day."

So the presence of the coronavirus in the U.S. and many other countries may be masked by the seasonal flu. If we are not testing for it, we are deceiving ourselves. We may not think it is a problem until it becomes a problem and at the point it will quickly become an epidemic overnight.

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jimmy m
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25 Feb 2020, 8:31 pm

On 3 June 2008, we were hit with several tornadoes. Over the next year I spent a significant amount of time cleaning up the mess these weather anomalies left behind.

Why do I bring that up? Many people have a misconception. They believe that when disaster strikes, the government will fix everything. Well it is not that way at all. They are operating under a disillusion. When disaster strikes the person on the front lines, the individuals are the ones that pick up the pieces.

It seems like the media and government are sending out mixed messages about the coronavirus. On one hand they are saying "this virus may dramatically affect lives in our country." and on the other hand they say "business as usual". That tells me they lack confidence. If our firewalls fail, it will be the average citizens that will bear the brunt of the pandemic. Ultimately our actions will dictate our survival. It is the actions that we take now to prepare for such a possibility that can have a big impact on our outcome. If we wait until the last minute, panic will set in and many of the options will quickly dissolve away.

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ASPartOfMe
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26 Feb 2020, 2:09 am

San Francisco declares state of emergency over coronavirus

Quote:

San Francisco Mayor London Breed (D) declared a state of emergency for the city on Tuesday amid concerns over the international coronavirus outbreak.

While no coronavirus cases have been confirmed in San Francisco, “the global picture is changing rapidly, and we need to step-up preparedness,” Breed said in a statement.

“We see the virus spreading in new parts of the world every day, and we are taking the necessary steps to protect San Franciscans from harm,” she added.

The new state of emergency will allow city officials to assemble resources and personnel to expedite emergency planning measures and boost the ability to deploy a rapid response to a potential coronavirus case in the city.

The move follows a similar declaration from Santa Clara County earlier this month. The declaration is effective immediately for seven days and will be voted on by the board of supervisors on March 3.

The statement from Breed comes amid stark warnings from U.S. health officials over the chances of an outbreak of the virus in the U.S.

US short on coronavirus facemasks, ventilators: HHS secretary

Quote:

The U.S. does not have enough facemasks or ventilators stockpiled to deal with threats of coronavirus spreading, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar told a Senate subcommittee on Tuesday.

Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., asked Azar if the U.S. had enough facemasks stockpiled after he said the administration was seeking additional coronavirus funding "to support the acquisition of personal protective equipment, especially masks, into the strategic national stockpile."

"Well, of course not, or we wouldn't be asking for a supplemental to seek more money," Azar said.

"This is an unprecedented, potential severe health challenge globally and will require these additional measures," he said.

The Trump administration asked Congress for $2.5 billion in supplemental spending to fend off the spreading coronavirus on Monday.

"We just asked for $2.5 billion on getting everything ready just in case something should happen and also helping other nations that really aren't equipped to do it," President Trump said at a business forum in New Delhi on Tuesday.

The funding request was released Monday evening and came as key government accounts were running low. The Department of Health and Human Services had already tapped into an emergency infectious disease rapid response fund and was seeking to transfer more than $130 million from other HHS accounts to combat the virus but is pressing for more.

The Trump administration is requesting $1.25 billion in new funding and wants to transfer $535 million more from an Ebola preparedness account that's been a top priority of Democrats. It anticipates shifting money from other HHS accounts and other agencies to complete the $2.5 billion response plan.

Democrats said that Trump's attempt to go after existing Ebola prevention funding was dead on arrival.

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Last edited by ASPartOfMe on 26 Feb 2020, 2:20 am, edited 4 times in total.

Kiprobalhato
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26 Feb 2020, 2:10 am

good thing i live on a small island with no bridges...just stop the ferry trips, problem solved :skull:

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ouinon2
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26 Feb 2020, 2:42 am

Fnord wrote:

There's something political going on here.

This.

I think that, as I said in my previous post ( bottom of page 26 ), this pandemic is pressing lots of rather sensitive buttons for many countries that normally don't care very much about the poor old, the ill old, or the poor ill , ( by far the most vulnerable to this coronavirus ), countries that generally prioritise wealth/wealth generation and protection over the lives of their weakest citizens.

The measures proposed by the World Health Organisation are entirely non-discriminatory; they are attempts to protect everyone equally, rich or poor, white or black, etc and are going to be very expensive and potentially very disruptive to trade, as China's example has already demonstrated.

And I suspect that some countries already affected, and many of those still relatively free of cases, may have hoped/still hope that that expense can be avoided, that they can get away with only the most rudimentary, cosmetic or non-existent measures, ie neglecting or failing to effectively screen/test, contain, treat or respond to any but the most publicly unavoidable cases/situations.

I think that quite a few governments/leaders/administrations would much rather let 3% -5% or even more of their poor old, ill old and poor ill die, as they usually let many of their weakest die/suffer, systematically, rather than risk damage to their economies. So they will say all the right things to the media but action will be patchy/inconsistent, ( as you point out ), ineffective, minimal.

It *is* very political.

Last edited by ouinon2 on 26 Feb 2020, 2:52 am, edited 2 times in total.

EzraS
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26 Feb 2020, 2:46 am

Kiprobalhato wrote:

good thing i live on a small island with no bridges...just stop the ferry trips, problem solved :skull:

I figured ꧁꧂⎝⎠ ╲╱╲╱ ⎝⎠꧁꧂ is an island.

Darmok
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26 Feb 2020, 2:55 am

Kiprobalhato wrote:

good thing i live on a small island with no bridges...just stop the ferry trips, problem solved :skull:

Until the bats arrive.

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Kiprobalhato
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26 Feb 2020, 3:03 am

oh crap. yeah, that's a good point.

ezra, have you ever seen bats in this area (king county, seattle, vashon)? i haven't, yet

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EzraS
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26 Feb 2020, 3:18 am

Kiprobalhato wrote:

oh crap. yeah, that's a good point.

ezra, have you ever seen bats in this area (king county, seattle, vashon)? i haven't, yet

Far as I know there are plenty of bats in the Puget Sound region. I often see bat houses when trail walking. However they are not a delicacy here. And they rarely fly into your mouth accidentally. Also they mostly only come out at night. Mostly.

ouinon2
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26 Feb 2020, 3:47 am

ouinon2 wrote:

Fnord wrote:

There's something political going on here.

An example might be Iran, which according to Canadian researchers may actually already have 18,000 infected.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20027375v1

Another is Indonesia, which so far supposedly has no cases at all, "because protected by prayer" according to its ex-military health minister.

Shabrem
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26 Feb 2020, 6:25 am

kraftiekortie wrote:

We have 14-day quarantines here at Kennedy Airport for people who are arriving from anywhere in China.

Some leaving China, take a round-about route.

Shabrem
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26 Feb 2020, 6:43 am

I'm stocking up on supplies to minimise my exposure if the virus strikes around here. I live a near hermit lifestyle as it is, so I would be quite comfortable hunkering down. Pretty safe, atm. Getting Chinese food tomorrow to support the business.
Apparently, the virus is more like the flu and mostly affects the elderly, very young and those with immune issues. Very few are at risk of dying, relatively speaking.
There is good progress in developing an anti-virus. All in all, there seems to be an overreaction, imo, when you consider how many die each year from the typical influenza virus.
BTW, the share market is crashing due to lack of components, etc, for businesses.

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26 Feb 2020, 7:48 am

Just saw tweet saying a leaked govt document says if 80% in UK get the virus 500K could die.

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EzraS
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26 Feb 2020, 7:57 am

firemonkey wrote:

Just saw tweet saying a leaked govt document says if 80% in UK get the virus 500K could die.

In 2018, there were 541,589 deaths registered in England and Wales.

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26 Feb 2020, 8:02 am

EzraS wrote:

firemonkey wrote:

Just saw tweet saying a leaked govt document says if 80% in UK get the virus 500K could die.

In 2018, there were 541,589 deaths registered in England and Wales.

They could mean an extra 500K , on top of the figure you quoted .

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ouinon2
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26 Feb 2020, 8:09 am

firemonkey wrote:

Just saw tweet saying a leaked govt document says if 80% in UK get the virus 500K could die.

At least!

( and as you say above this would be in addition to normal deaths ), and it also represents a massive increase in hospital treatment demand likely to cause more deaths from other causes as medical system struggles to keep up.

Researchers say that between 40%-70% of populations are liable to infection if exposed to the virus, and data so far indicates that of those infected 80% will probably experience no or only mild symptoms.

Of the remaining 20% who become seriously ill, and require sustained medical attention, a tenth/10% ( or 2% of the total number infected ), are likely to die, most of them the old or the already ill, or weakened by other factors ( ex. poverty/stress/malnutrition ).

In the UK this means that between 26-45 million would be infected, of whom 5-10 million would become ill enough to require serious medical care, and eventually ***between 500K and 900K could die***. The 500K figure is actually the lower end of estimates/projected fatalities!

But the government would be relieved of a lot of old and ill and poor people, especially if medical care was limited or disorganised, which would reduce the burden on benefits systems, care homes, hospitals and society generally ... ... ....

Some other governments would probably appreciate this effect too.

Last edited by ouinon2 on 26 Feb 2020, 8:42 am, edited 3 times in total.

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