Hurricane Irma

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...EYE OF IRMA BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST OF CUBA
WHILE WEATHER IS DETERIORATING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...
...MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
DAYBREAK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 80.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 43...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

Corrected day of week to Sunday in first Key Message

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane sampling Irma indicate
that the hurricane has not recovered yet from its interaction
with Cuba. It is estimated that the maximum winds are 110 kt. Given
the excellent satellite presentation, the lower pressure just
reported by the NOAA plane, and the fact that the hurricane will
move over the warm waters of the Straits of Florida, some
intensification is anticipated during the next 24 hours. Irma is
expected to remain a very dangerous hurricane while it moves near or
over the Florida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. After
48 hours, Irma will be moving farther inland and weakening.

Radar data indicate that Irma is moving toward the west-northwest
at about 8 kt. The turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is
about to begin since the hurricane is already at the western edge of
the subtropical ridge. The track guidance continues to be tightly
packed, and the bulk of the models take the hurricane over the
Florida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. The NHC
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and given the
good agreement among models, the confidence in the track forecast is
high.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected bring life-threatening wind and storm surge to
the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane tonight through Sunday. Preparations in southwest
Florida should be completed within the next few hours, as
tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin tonight.

2. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge
flooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the
Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat
of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest
coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground
level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation, and
everyone in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation
instructions from local officials.

3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida
regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma
are also expected to spread northward through much of Georgia
and portions of South Carolina and Alabama.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts
of between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the
Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through
Monday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early
next week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the
southeast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is
forecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South
Carolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. Residents
throughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood
threat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings.

Here are some live webcams I am watching, and the first three or four on the list are in the Florida Keys:

Watch Hurricane Irma from these Florida web cams

...0100 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...IRMA SLOWLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE WESTERN FLORIDA KEYS...

A National Ocean Service station in Vaca Key, Florida, recently
reported sustained winds of 41 mph (67 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph
(119 km/h). A National Ocean Service station located in Key
West, Florida, has recently indicated a tide level 1.5
ft above MHHW.

SUMMARY OF 0100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 81.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES



NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

Irma's nearly 24-hour traversal of the north coast of Cuba appears
to have affected the hurricane's structure and intensity. An
earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a more recent Air Force
reconnaissance flight both measured maximum flight-level winds near
105 kt and surface winds near 95 kt. The planes have reported
a double eyewall structure, which has also been observed in WSR-88D
Doppler radar data from Miami and Key West. Irma's intensity has
been conservatively lowered to 105 kt, and I'd rather wait to lower
the winds further until we've seen the full data set from the Air
Force mission.

Irma has stuttered near the north coast of Cuba for the past few
hours, which may be a harbinger of the north-northwestward turn
that we've been waiting for. In any event, Irma appears to be
moving very slowly toward the northwest, or 305/5 kt, very gradually
shifting away from the north coast of Cuba. With the hurricane
located near a break in the subtropical ridge, it should turn
north-northwestward soon and accelerate near or along the west
coast of Florida during the next 36-48 hours. Because of Irma's
hesitation to move northwestward, the new track guidance has shifted
ever so slightly westward, and the new NHC track is just a little
left of the previous one. Although it is likely that the eye will
move near or over the Lower Keys Sunday morning, the hurricane's
angle of approach to the west coast of Florida makes it very
difficult to pinpoint exactly where Irma will cross the Florida Gulf
coast.

If an eyewall replacement occurs within the next 6-12 hours, Irma
has an opportunity to restrengthen a bit while it moves across the
Straits of Florida. After that time, however, southwesterly shear
is expected to increase to 25-30 kt in about 24 hours and then
continue increasing through 48 hours. This shear, in addition to
Irma's core interacting with Florida, is likely to cause a
weakening trend after 24 hours. The new intensity guidance calls
for an adjustment from the previous forecast, although it
conservatively lies near the upper bound of the reliable models.
Irma is still expected to approach the Florida Keys and Florida
west coast as a major hurricane, and combined with its large size,
will produce significant storm surge flooding in those areas.

As of 11 p.m., there were 109,341 outages in Miami-Dade, 61,194 in Broward, and 30,983 in Palm Beach County.

They should have canceled our cruise in the first place so we could have avoided this or dropped us off somewhere else,” a frustrated Allen told the Los Angeles Times.

I hope there aren't many people buying the 'this storm is overhyped not that bad' rhetoric that is apparently going around from some people..like idiot Rush limbaugh(however you spell his name), because waiting it out looks like a good way to get killed.

"It was storm surge that was the big killer in the Keys’ worst catastrophe more than 80 years ago. The most intense hurricane to strike the United States, the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, tore first through Craig Key with estimated winds that exceeded 200 miles an hour. One estimate put the toll at 485 dead, including about 250 veterans who were caught in work camps building new highway bridges when the storm struck

That storm was also the death knell for the Keys extension of the Florida East Coast Railway, which had been battered by hurricanes since it began operating in 1912. The railroad, which was then the only line of ground transportation to Key West, had weathered the 1926 Great Miami hurricane that killed 200 on the mainland as well as the storm in 1919 named for the Florida Keys that sank ships off the coast and killed more than 800. But the 1935 hurricane, with a surge that tore up tracks and overturned a train filled with evacuees, doomed the project financially.

A monument in Islamorada memorializes the victims of that hurricane. And author Les Standiford, director of the creative writing program at Florida International University, wrote a history of the tragedy in the 2003 book, “Last Train to Paradise.” "

The storm made landfall at Cudjoe Key, toward the bottom of the archipelago and about 20 miles east of Key West, at 9.10am, according to the National Weather Service.

For hours, waters have been rushing up overland on the islands and then sweeping out again. Many roads are completely impassable, and the worst surges have yet to come in the wake of the winds.

In Miami, the winds are picking up and downing trees, street signs and power lines.

The lower islands of the Florida Keys are now inside the center of the storm, the National Hurricane Center reports. The storm had sustained winds of 130mph at 9am local time.

Shortly before the hour, the National Weather Service station on Key West reported sustained winds of 71mph and gusts up to 90mph. Shortly afterward, the station reported a wind gust of 106mph on Big Pine Key.

In Miami-Dade County up through Palm Beach County, on Florida’s east coast, there are intermittent gusts of 80mph wind, as well as streaky periods of intense rain, growing more common.

On the Florida Keys, the storm is pushing the ocean over roads.