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The_Face_of_Boo
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17 Apr 2020, 9:04 am

kraftiekortie wrote:
The vast majority of mild cases have been resolved in 2 weeks. Total recovery. Including myself.



I didn't know you had it.

Good to hear.



kraftiekortie
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17 Apr 2020, 9:14 am

It’s not “confirmed.” But I’m almost positive I had it.

Probably at least half of NYC residents had it in some form.



The_Face_of_Boo
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17 Apr 2020, 9:27 am



The_Face_of_Boo
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17 Apr 2020, 9:27 am



kraftiekortie
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17 Apr 2020, 9:30 am

Yep. The NYC subway was probably a prime place of transmission.



EzraS
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17 Apr 2020, 9:37 am

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:
EzraS wrote:
The_Face_of_Boo wrote:
Image

Umm... this 21% death isn't scary? Why people focus on the 2-5% death rate (dead count divided by TOTAL number of cases, including active and closed cases), while, the above death rate should be really the main concern?

Am I missing something?


It starts out with 96% mild and 4% serious or critical. Of that 4% 79% recover and 21% die.

Image

Those percentages have pretty much been a constant for the least couple of months



Nowhere they're saying that the closed cases are part of the 4% critical only, no; those who had mild condition yet survived or dead would also be counted in the closed cases.

The 4% critical are part of the ACTIVE cases, meaning people who are still sick.

Only 32% of the total cases had an outcome (surviving or dead) so far..


The way I am seeing it is the 96% mild cases were told to self isolate to let the virus resolve on its own (like Tom Hanks and his wife). The 4% serious or critical are the ones who were hospitalized. The 79% recovered/discharged are the 4% who were hospitalized who recovered and were discharged from the hospital.



kraftiekortie
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17 Apr 2020, 9:49 am

According to NYC figures, 26% of positive COVID19 cases have been hospitalized.

Out of those people hospitalized, about 25% have died.

People with confirmed cases, by and large, are people with more serious conditions.



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17 Apr 2020, 9:57 am

If the mortality rate was 21%, we would have constant sirens. Many people on my block would have died. Nobody would know where to put all the bodies accumulating. Talk about an emergency!! !!



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17 Apr 2020, 10:11 am

Actually come to think of it I believe while there are 4% serious or critical, closer to 15% (including that 4%) are hospitalized. Probably a lot of that 15% were hospitalized for observation.



ASPartOfMe
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17 Apr 2020, 10:16 am

kraftiekortie wrote:
If the mortality rate was 21%, we would have constant sirens. Many people on my block would have died. Nobody would know where to put all the bodies accumulating. Talk about an emergency!! ! !

Services and supply lines and would be collapsing or collapsed as the people who run them are either, dead, dying, or too petrified to leave the house. In other words forget no toilet paper on Amazon pretty much no everything. Hospitals would be useless for similar reasons but getting an ambulance to get there would be a sketchy proposition anyway.

There would be severe personal shortages for everything, TV and radio stations, people who run the government, the internet, the electric companies, cops and firemen etc, etc.


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kraftiekortie
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17 Apr 2020, 11:11 am

Yep. All that APOM said.



Darmok
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17 Apr 2020, 11:20 am

In a free society, the government exists by the consent of the people, and laws are in almost every case obeyed voluntarily. When governments become oppressive, there is a point — and it comes faster than oppressors think it will — when the people simply withdraw their consent. ("Local officials are losing control" means the people no longer consent.)

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goldfish21
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17 Apr 2020, 11:23 am

EzraS wrote:
goldfish21 wrote:
EzraS wrote:
Pepe wrote:
NEWS FLASH!

Death statistics in china jump by around 30% in one day.

Hmmmm. :mrgreen:


The normal daily mortality rate in the US is between 7,400-7,800 per day. China has over 3 times the population of the US, so a ballpark estimate of the daily mortality rate there should be around 23,000 per day. That's a lot to keep track of under normal circumstances.


How so? They also have 3x as many people to do the keeping track. Plus their people excel at math.. sooo :nerdy:


Based all the news reports and posts here, they're not doing a very good job, so that was another dumb question. I'm going to surmise you are asking dumb questions to be annoying. Think I'll ignore you for a while. See how hard you try to get me to reply to you.


China is not having difficulty keeping track. :roll: They are lying. :!:

And you claim to be smarter than me. :lol:


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kraftiekortie
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17 Apr 2020, 11:24 am

There could be construction going on.

Taking out two lanes on a highway causes congestion even when relatively few cars are on the road.



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17 Apr 2020, 11:44 am

Antibody research indicates coronavirus may be far more widespread than known
Of 3,300 people in California county up to 4% found to have been infected.

A critical question in the path towards the future is how many people actually have protective novel coronavirus antibodies and possible immunity? Two research teams in California -- backed by armies of dedicated volunteers -- set out to answer this very question and the first set of results are in.

The first large-scale community test of 3,300 people in Santa Clara County found that 2.5 to 4.2% of those tested were positive for antibodies -- a number suggesting a far higher past infection rate than the official count.

Based on the initial data, researchers estimate that the range of people who may have had the virus to be between 48,000 and 81,000 in the county of 2 million -- as opposed to the approximately 1,000 in the county's official tally at the time the samples were taken.

“Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health," Dr. Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study, said in an interview with ABC News' Diane Sawyer.


https://abcnews.go.com/Health/antibody- ... d=70206121


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jimmy m
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17 Apr 2020, 11:57 am

ANOTHER SYMPTOM OF COVID-19

COVID-19, the disease that has caused the coronavirus pandemic, is a respiratory illness that has symptoms that can include fatigue, a persistent cough and fevers. However, researchers in Spain believe they have discovered another symptom —lesions on feet.

According to a statement from the Spanish General Council of Official Podiatrist Colleges, the lesions are described as similar to those seen with chickenpox and can largely be seen on the feet of children and adolescents. They have also been spotted on some adults.

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"These are purple-colored lesions (very similar to those of chickenpox, measles or chilblains) that usually appear around the toes and that usually heal without leaving marks on the skin."

Researchers discover new coronavirus symptoms: feet lesions


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