Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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In countries without government health care, just getting this thing is a huge concern.

You could wake up a week later and get a bill for $100,000.

Looks like we have been asking the wrong questions....

The evidence now points to people who recover from the virus could catch it again a few short months
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... fc3306b5a7

The evidence is stacking up that there's no such thing as immunity to COVID-19 “Essentially what they show is that, over the next two years, it’s going to be a constant battle - irrespective of the season,” he says. “Each time you lift social isolation measures, the virus is going to come back and bite.”

It's likely it might be 2025 before the lockdowns are finished for good

Broadway star Nick Cordero had his leg amputated due to Covid-19 complications

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/19/entertai ... index.html

Covid-19 can damage the heart and blood vessels, kidneys, liver, intestines, and brain

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04 ... brain-toes

If this was the case, the lockdowns need to be eased to the point of manageability and economies have to adapt to social distancing.
This is possible.

Yup.
NTs are going to be particularly unhappy.

This is what I've been most concerned about, I guess life post C19 will have to be fundamentally different.

"Are we there yet?"
No.
It is just speculation, at this time.
Plenty of time to panic, in isolation, when things have been verified.

True, cross bridges when you get to them, many unknowns.

I lurve "The Serenity Prayer."

No, he wasn't in Australia, the man was a Chinese national in China, but the newspaper sort of buried that way down the end.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-man-w ... 54kvn.html






I agree that it is far more likely to be a dodgy batch of tests.
The timelines claimed simply don't make any sense for a reinfection scenario.

True, in such countries it would be quite scary I imagine.

OK SOME WONDERFUL NEWS.

The Nederländerna have just published a study.
Those clever people tested blood donations.
A great way to get a sample. A bit annoyed that I did not think of doing that.

Officially the Netherlands has 30,000 cases.
of which 3,500 died (about 11% death rate)

But when they tested a random sample of 10,000 blood donations.

3% of them were positive for Corona Virus.
The population of the netherlands is 17 Million people.
So 3% is about 500,000 which results in a death rate around 0.6%

This means their were roughly 18 undetected/asymptomatic infections, for every detected infection and the virus is much less deadly than it initially appeared to be.

This is wonderful news.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN21Y102

So in other words for every positive case of the coronavirus in the Netherlands, there are 17 times that number of people who have been infected. That means the coronavirus is endemic in the population. It probably means that contract tracing is useless.
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Since antibody test have begun to roll out, they are producing a rather strange finding.

A team of researchers in California found that the number of coronaviruses cases in one county may actually be up to 85 times higher than the what health officials have tallied, and say their data may help better estimate the virus’ true fatality rate.

Earlier this month, Stanford University-led researchers tested 3,330 adults and children in Santa Clara County, who were recruited using Facebook ads, for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and found that the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49 percent to 4.16 percent.

“The most important implication of these findings is that the number of infections is much greater than the reported number of cases,” the researchers wrote, in a yet-to-be peer-reviewed study. “Our data imply that, by April 1 (three days prior to the end of our survey) between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara County. The reported number of confirmed positive cases in the county on April 1 was 956, 50-85-fold lower than the number of infectious predicted by this study.”

Source: Coronavirus antibody testing finds Bay Area infections may be 85 times higher than reported

That also means that the coronavirus is endemic in the population. If you upscale those findings across the entire U.S., it could mean that perhaps as many as 13.7 million people in the U.S. have been exposed to the coronavirus. Most of these have recovered because their bodies have produced antibodies to the disease. It also means the mortality rates for this virus is extremely low, perhaps in the range of the common cold.

Sometimes thoughts just flow through my mind. One raced by and I captured it.

Far Ultraviolet Light (UVC) kills viruses and bacteria. Patients in hospitals often are exposed to secondary infections that kill them. These go by the name healthcare- associated infection (HAI). Some patients are so weak they cannot even breath by themselves and require a ventilator. A ventilator is a machine that provides mechanical ventilation by moving breathable air into and out of the lungs, to deliver breaths to a patient who is physically unable to breathe, or breathing insufficiently. So the thought is why not install a UVC sanitizer into a ventilator. It would be a simple inexpensive mod.

So I checked the Internet to see if ventilators were already so equipped. It doesn't seem like existing ventilators incorporate this mod. But I did come across a similar article:

The morbidity, mortality, and financial cost of healthcare- associated infection (HAI) is well established. Hospitals are penalized financially for 30-day readmissions of patients with an HAI (1). Patients in skilled nursing facilities, especially ventilator units, are at continued risk for HAI, and these facilities will also soon be penalized for readmissions.

HAI management and prevention efforts are complicated by the emergence and persistence of multiple drug resistant organisms (MDROs). Some of the most common MRDOs include vancomycin-resistant enterococcus (VRE), methicillin resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA), and Acinetobacter. Clostridium difficile (C. difficile) is also a significant HAI.

In an effort to improve and extend standard infection control measures, many healthcare facilities are adding germicidal ultraviolet (UV-C) lights. It is clear that UV-C can reduce circulating pathogens. But how best to deliver the UV-C? Direct prolonged exposure to UV light is unacceptable because of the known deleterious biologic effects. The mobile emitters (the so-called robots) have been limited to room exposure when patient rooms are vacated, which can be problematical in areas such as an ICU, or a long-term ventilator unit with double-bedded rooms, such as in our study, where empty patient rooms are uncommon.

Rooms treated with mobile UV-C emitters do show reduced bacterial surface colony counts, but use of the emitter depends on initial cost, its availability, the allotted time between patients, the need for staff initiative, and an unoccupied space. Our study was designed to determine if the use of continuous, shielded UV-C lights that treat and recirculate patient room air could have an impact on infection rates. A long-term care ventilator unit was chosen because it is an environment with comparatively high infection rates, particularly MDRO and C. difficile.

Many of the common HAIs, such as C. difficile and MRSA, are considered contact transmissible. However, Best et al. reported that air and sample cultures were positive for C. difficile in 60% of hospital rooms where patients had symptomatic C. difficile infections. In other words, C. difficile can be suspended in air, and from there can settle onto surfaces. Surface bound bacteria may become intermittently airborne when surfaces are agitated. The frequent movement of bed sheets would be an example, as Shiomori et al. demonstrated. We wondered what impact cleaning the air with UV-C might have on HAIs, including those generally considered to be contact transmissible.

So they conducted an experiment and this is the results:

The overall infection rate was significantly less in patient rooms with shielded UV-C units where the rate was 12.5±-2.12 vs. the control group’s rate of 17.5±-2.81 p=0.022, CI 1.075-8.925. The infection rate for each group was calculated as the number of infections per 1000 patient days in that wing.

Source: UV-C light and infection rate in a long term care ventilator unit

So in their study they tried to eliminate microorganisms by sanitizing the room using UVC. But what I am suggesting is sanitizing the air just before it enters the patient's throat via a ventilator. Sanitize the air in both the inhale and exhale tubing.

Last edited by jimmy m on 19 Apr 2020, 10:03 am, edited 2 times in total.

Sometimes I think modern medicine can be as much a curse to humanity as a blessing. We'll all die someday anyway. The people dying of coronavirus would likely die of some other virus, infection, or complication within a relatively short time if coronavirus did not exist. This is how I see it, others can have their own opinion. I could care less if they reopen things or not, because I choose not to socialize much anyway. It gets me out of doing some of the things I hated before. Where I draw the line is with the laws requiring people to wear masks. It violates civil rights. It causes people with sensory issues pain and extreme discomfort and hampers our ability to provide for ourselves. I will be protesting this. They can keep their laws off my body.