Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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The Iranian Health Ministry recorded 523 new cases in the past 24 hours, bringing the country's known total to 1,501. They mark a 53 percent increase since the day before.

An adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has died from the new coronavirus, as other top officials in the country are confirmed to be infected, according to multiple reports on Monday. Mohammad Mirmohammadi, 71, was an Expediency Council member who advised Khamenei and settled disputes between him and parliament. COVID-19 has already infected Iran's vice president and deputy health minister.

The virus has killed at least 66 people in Iran, the highest death toll outside of China. The majority of 1,150 cases throughout the Middle East are linked back to the country. Iran's mortality rate from the virus is roughly 5.5 percent, compared to an overall fatality rate of about 2 percent in China. The difference in rates has led people to suggest the number of infections in Iran is higher than what the country has officially reported. The country's first case was reported less than two weeks ago.

Adviser to Iran's Supreme leader dies from coronavirus, as other top officials infected

I read another article this morning about IRAN. This article was written on 28 February before the numbers shot up dramatically.

If a new BBC Persian report is accurate, the death toll from coronavirus in Iran is far higher than the official numbers.

The official numbers, which are being tracked by Johns Hopkins, indicate that 34 Iranians have died. However, according to Al Arabiya, BBC Persian reports that at least 210 people have died from COVID-19 in that country.

If true, that means two things: (1) The Iranian government is lying (which isn't a surprise); and (2) COVID-19 has infected far more than the number of confirmed cases, which currently stands at 388 in Iran. Assuming that the case-fatality rate of 2% is roughly accurate, the actual number of cases in Iran is closer to 10,000. The virus is out of control in that country. It probably didn't help that the chief of Iran's coronavirus task force contracted the coronavirus.

At this point in time, it is almost impossible to say how many people have been infected. Data is limited for three reasons:

First, the virus has spread far and fast, outpacing public health officials' ability to test every suspected case and to acquire reliable information. Also, patients are only counted in the official tally if they show up to a hospital and get tested. People who acquire a mild or asymptomatic infection, and hence never see a doctor, will not get counted.

Second, as Nature Biotechnology describes, molecular testing kits aren't perfect. They can give false negatives, particularly if the virus sheds at different times and if non-ideal clinical specimens are collected. Given how quickly they were manufactured, the tests themselves can be flawed, such as the CDC's kit.

Third, authoritarian countries like China and Iran routinely lie about infectious disease. China has a history of lying (e.g., about SARS and HIV), and Iran is probably lying right now.

Source: BBC Report: 210 Dead In Iran From Coronavirus. How Many Are Infected?

There is one piece of good news.

China closed one of its makeshift hospitals for the first time on Monday as new coronavirus cases dipped in the country. China's recorded just 202 new cases since yesterday, the lowest infected total since Jan. 22, according to Reuters. Wuhan had 193 of those cases, its lowest total since Jan. 26.

This hospital was originally one of 16 rapidly constructed hospitals in the city of Wuhan -- considered the epicenter of the virus. It closed after discharging its last group of 34 recovered patients. The head of the largest of all the temporary hospitals in Wuhan announced they also plan to close by the end of the month. This one is located at an exhibition center, it was designed to treat as many as 2,000 patients and has a staff of 1,260. About 600 of its patients have been released and another 400 were transferred to other hospitals, according to Dr. Zhang Junjian, the director of the hospital.

Source: China closes first makeshift hospital as new cases drop in country, increase worldwide

New York City Has Its First Coronavirus Patient. Here’s What You Need To Know.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/03/01/new-york-city-confirmed-its-first-coronavirus-patient-heres-what-you-need-to-know/#1a50089e4097

U.S. surgeon general Jerome M. Adams. “Seriously people,” he tweeted from his official account Saturday, “STOP BUYING MASKS! They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!”

Isn't this a most curious comment? Masks are not effective for general public, but they are very effective for healthcare providers. I did not know we have "smart masks" that can automatically adjust their effectiveness depending on whether the wearer is a healthcare provider or not.

This is today's picture from Taipei City Hall's internal meeting. The mayor Ko (in red jacket) is an Aspie, and was a trauma surgeon earlier in his life. This is not in a hospital. This is the daily morning staff meeting, for the city hall cabinet. Taiwan has ~40 confirmed cases. Italy has ~1,700.


Do you trust your CDC, or do you trust the people that have successfully fought against SARS and the recent Swine Flu?

The truth is, all the comments about general public have no need to wear masks, are a small white lie. The US government just wants to save the masks for the healthcare workers, given the shortage of masks. The intention is very good. But it's still a white lie. I would think that behind the scene, US must be cranking up its manufacturing capability for masks. Taiwan has done that. Japan is doing that. Taiwan has rationed the masks for about one month, now, and at some point will lift the rationing, since the production capability has already caught up with the demand.

An Italian congressman was ridiculed for wearing a mask to the parlament.


The truth is, the people in Taiwan did not wear masks before SARS. It's something that they have learned to do after the painful losses from SARS. See, when the coronavirus just just started, there was this ACE2 theory that said Europeans won't be affected as much by this virus: https://www.eturbonews.com/542533/coronavirus-risk-for-asians-africans-caucasians-revealed/. In hindsight, that was a wishful thinking.

The first known case of the coronavirus in New York is a female 39-year-old health care worker who had been working in Iran before traveling back to the U.S. last Tuesday. The woman’s husband, who is also a health care worker, is being tested for COVID-19 as well. Both underwent testing at Mt. Sinai. Both are currently in isolation in their home.

Source: New York coronavirus patient is health care worker who traveled to Iran, isolated at home

CDC took 4 days to test patient with unknown origins because it didn't meet their strict testing criteria that's one way to keep the numbers low don't test and say the people died from the Flu or pneumonia since it is Flu season.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8051701/CDC-took-four-days-test-person-unknown-origin-coronavirus-case.html

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) took four days to test a woman with the first confirmed case of coronavirus where the origin of the disease is unknown because she hadn't traveled abroad or been exposed to an infected patient as experts warn the deadly virus could spread quickly in the US like it did in Italy.

The woman, who is a resident of Solano County, which is about 35 miles outside of Sacramento, was admitted into UC Davis Medical Center on February 19.

But questions are now being asked over the CDC's handling of the case after an email from medical center officials to employees revealed that the CDC took four days to test the patient for the deadly disease despite requests from staff at the center.

The leaked memo also suggested medical center staff may have been unnecessarily put at risk after dozens were told to go into isolation and watch for symptoms. According to the email, the CDC didn't test the patient, who has not been identified, for coronavirus until February 23.

It has also been revealed that experts like Dr Adrian Hyzler, the chief medical officer for Healix International, believe the virus could spread in the US overnight like it did in Italy.

'It spreads very rapidly because of the ease with which you can pass on this virus through respiratory droplets and surface spread,' Hyzler told The Daily Beast.

'There is every possibility that this could happen in the US,' Hyzler said, referring to the outbreaks in Iran and Italy.

Hyzler then pointed to a place like New York City where the coronavirus 'would spread very rapidly on a crowded subway or metro system'.

3 more people die in Seattle area

Are we post-apocalyptic yet?

I wanna know 'cuz Mel Gibson is knocking at my door and there's a bunch of weird-looking freaks running around Los Angeles and I wanna know if they're zombies or not.

Just askin'...

The death toll due to the coronavirus has now reached 6 in Washington State. Many of the fatalities and infections (18 in state) are related to Life Care Center, a nursing home.

The most vulnerable are the elderly and those with other serious health conditions. That is why the virus was so deadly on cruise ships such as the Diamond Princess because most of the passengers are elderly. 705 people aboard the ship contracted the illness and 7 have died. The other major vulnerability population is found in nursing homes, which is becoming quite obvious in Washington state.

Panic Mode Has Begun in the U.S.

The panic began slowly, with shoppers looking for face masks and hand sanitizers. But it hit fever pitch over the weekend as shoppers descended on supermarkets and big-box stores, snapping up cleaning supplies, toilet paper and nonperishable foods to prepare for the coronavirus.

“It has gotten crazier by the day,” said a Target employee who fulfills online orders at a store in Richmond. “A lot of it is obviously panic-buying, people stocking up on eight gallons of water or 20 kinds of soups. Items are selling out immediately, as soon as they go up on shelves."

Two coronavirus deaths in the United States over the weekend — and four more since — sparked fears of a wider outbreak and motivated Americans across the country to hit supermarkets, pharmacies and warehouse stores to stock up on necessities, resulting in bare shelves and long lines. A Target in Colma, Calif., sold out of bottled water. A Costco in San Francisco is out of Clorox wipes. A spokesman for Lowe’s said the hardware and home goods store is expediting shipments of face masks and cleaning supplies to meet increasing demand.

Hand sanitizer has gotten so hard to come by that some customers are buying up aloe vera and rubbing alcohol to make their own.

The relentless spread of the coronavirus has sparked the kind of panic-buying normally reserved for natural disasters. But unlike a hurricane, which delivers destruction before moving on, there is no end to the outbreak in sight — and it’s making shoppers crazy.

Source: Coronavirus fears send shoppers into panic-buying mode

... and threads like this do wonders for keeping people from panicking ...