Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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THE SECOND WAVE

From everything I have seen, this appears to be a seasonal pandemic. In all likelihood the pandemic will die down during the Spring and Summer as the humidity levels rise but reappear in the Winter as humidity levels drop again. Thus there is the concept of a second wave.

My brother up in Alaska is worried about the Second Wave. He said for the most part Alaska has not been affected by COVID-19. Most things are available in the stores, expect face mask. But now meat is starting to disappear and that is driving up his fears that the second wave will be worse than the first. He understands that Alaska is at the very, very end of the food chain. And he is worried. I told him that it will be less severe because we will have the option of preparing for the Second Wave. N95 face masks will begin to show up on store shelves in a couple months and people can prepare. He said "Exactly!, I want to prepare. But how do I do that?" So it sounded like he wants to become a Prepper. So I sent him a link to a Prepper store called Emergency Essentials and sent him a link to the Preparedness Plan I put together.

There was an article in my inbox today about The Second Wave:
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Much remains unknown about the coronavirus. A new paper published in The Lancet estimates that roughly 60% of the population needs to be immune to COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity.

For social and economic reasons, the lockdown simply cannot last much longer. As the country begins to reopen, there will be several major unanswered questions, perhaps the biggest of which is, "Will there be a second wave of COVID-19?"

Tackling this question first requires an understanding of the immunological response to the coronavirus and, specifically, what is needed to achieve herd immunity. A new paper published in The Lancet provides some insights. Below is a summary of some of the paper's major points in the form of a Q&A.

What is herd immunity and how is it achieved?

Herd immunity is the resistance that an infectious disease encounters when it attempts to spread in a population. If a sufficient number of people are immune to the disease, then the microbe cannot spread. Herd immunity can be achieved through infection (and recovery) or vaccination.

What percentage of people must be immune for us to achieve herd immunity?

The more infectious the disease, the greater the percentage of immune individuals needed to block its spread. Infectiousness is quantified by a measure known as R0, which is an estimate of the average number of people to whom an infected person will spread the disease in a totally susceptible population. With an R0 between 12 and 18, measles may be the most infectious disease among humans. To achieve herd immunity against measles, public health officials say that at least 90% (perhaps 93% to 95%) of people must be immune. With an R0 of roughly 2.2, SARS-CoV-2 would require a herd immunity of about 60%.

Can a person be reinfected with coronavirus?

This is unknown, but it's also unlikely in the short-term. Anecdotal reports of immediate reinfection are a bit suspect. Evidence from other coronaviruses suggests that a person should have at least some immunity for a couple of years.

What percentage of the population has been infected?

This is unknown. However, initial data suggests to the authors that herd immunity will not be achieved during this "first wave."

Can vaccine production be sped up?

It's very difficult to speed up the production of a vaccine faster than 12-18 months. The reason is because vaccines must be tested thoroughly for safety. This takes time. If a vaccine elicits an improper immune response, it can be harmful or even lethal. The authors provide a hypothetical scenario in regard to SARS-CoV-2:

"Some features of the immune response induced by infection, such as high concentrations of tumour necrosis factor and interleukin 6, which could be elicited by some candidate vaccines, have been identified as biomarkers of severe outcome."

Will there be a second wave?

The authors don't address this question directly, but given their analysis, a second wave seems very likely.

Source: Coronavirus: What Will It Take To Achieve COVID-19 Herd Immunity?
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I guess from my perception the idea of a wave makes some sense. It begins as a wave that infects the Northern hemisphere and then as the seasons progress the infection wave moves into the Southern hemisphere and takes hold. Then another 6 months later when the Northern hemisphere moves into its winter season, the wave returns to the Northern hemisphere as a second wave. But if you can dampen down the wave as it moves South, then it will become a minnow in a sea of whales.

I am getting in the mood of a 4th of July fireworks celebration. It sounds like I am not the only one. I have to buy some more fireworks!

An attention-grabbing face mask ....

California Shopper In Ku Klux Klan Hood Alarms Customers, Officials

https://timesofsandiego.com/business/20 ... ffs-probe/
https://news.yahoo.com/santee-san-diego ... 51827.html

He looks like someone who is in a protest mode or rebellion mode about the coronavirus lockdown in California.

I'm forced to wear a mask! I'll show them!

I'd probably hyperventilate and die if I saw that ^^

I hope no one here talks about “freedom of expression” or whatever.....

Another nurse of my son's (not the one whose cousin was a dr who died in Istanbul).. Her cousin died thurs from cobid19. Healthy and fit looking man with a wife.
No previously known underlying health conditions.


Mid or Late thirties.
She told me on Fri


It took 2 days of obvious symptoms--he died the second day. .


1st day he had upset tummy only..
dr said to take tylenol etc.

2nd day was rushed to hospital as drastically worsened and died there without even enough time to hook him onto anything or do anything ..

She has a pic of him n his wife together, as her whatsapp display pic.

Other nurse whose couain died thar i mentioned here before.. Cousin was 41 yrs old

Low-Quality Masks Infiltrate U.S. Coronavirus Supply
Many imported masks fall short of N95 standards, tests show, putting workers on the front lines of battling the virus at risk

U.S. regulators and state officials are finding a significant number of imported N95-style masks fall short of certification standards, complicating the response to the coronavirus crisis and potentially putting some front-line workers at greater risk.

Recent tests by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health found that about 60% of 67 different types of imported masks tested allowed in more tiny particles in at least one sample than U.S. standards normally permit.

One mask that Niosh tested, sold in packaging bearing unauthorized Food and Drug Administration logos, filtered out as little as 35% of particles. Another, marked KN95, a Chinese standard similar to N95, had one sample test below 15%, far short of the 95% it advertised, Niosh said. KN95 and N95 both refer to standards that call for masks to block 95% of very small particles.

The Niosh tests, combined with recalls and additional testing from multiple states, show that millions of substandard masks have been imported from China and other countries as the need for protective gear for workers confronting the pandemic has skyrocketed.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-werent- ... 1588528690

Blooie’s post makes me realize how lucky I am.....

I did not ask her what his job was.. As nurse Mehri's cousin was a dr he was in direct contact with patients with it..

Perhaps he too was in the healthcare field.
She is from Burundi.

My friend from grade 11 and 12 (now she is in Nigeria and became a doctor) told me in Nigeria the testing is almost nil but luckily they have lots of PPE. I messaged her recently to ask how she is. .

She said 'the delay in testing makes contact tracing nearly impossible.'
I told her here it is almost the opposite. PPE shortages causing staff shortages and difficulties for vulnerable ppl in homes

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CURE: GOUT MEDICINE

A team of researchers in New York is pairing with another group in Montreal to explore whether a common anti-inflammatory medication used to treat gout and other conditions may help coronavirus patients. The teams, from NYU Langone Health and Montreal Heart Institute Research Center, are seeking to enroll 6,000 participants for a monthlong trial involving Colchicine.

Colchicine, taken orally, does not cure gout but helps prevent the buildup of uric acid and inflammation in the joints, according to the Mayo Clinic. It’s not considered a pain reliever, but it has also been used to treat Mediterranean fever in adults and children.

The study’s principal investigator at NYU Langone, in a press release. “Our experience with Colchicine suggests that early use of this drug may help dampen inflammation that the body produces in response to the virus and enable patients to recover without being hospitalized.”

For the trial, dubbed COLCORONA, participants must have been diagnosed with COVID-19 within the last 48 hours but not hospitalized for it, be 40 years or older, have at least one high-risk criteria, be willing to take the drug or a placebo for at least 30 days and be willing to participate in two follow-up calls by phone or video conference.

“If successful, this medication could be added to treatment protocols quickly across the country and internationally,” Dr. Michael Pillinger, professor of medicine and co-principal investigator on the study at NYU Langone, said in a news release. “We are at a critical point in this pandemic where implanting our existing knowledge to find solutions is vital.”

Source: Gout medication eyed as possible coronavirus treatment by researchers

Throw everything at it including the kitchen sink and see what sticks.

Coronavirus’s new mystery: It’s causing strokes in healthy people


https://www.vox.com/2020/5/1/21244171/s ... lood-clots

https://theconversation.com/people-with ... far-137304