Hurricane Irma

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...IRMA HEADED FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...
...WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 81.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km). A 120 mph (193 km/h) gust was recently reported at
the National Key Deer Refuge in Big Pine Key. A sustained wind of
62 mph (100 km/h) with a gust of 94 mph (151 km/h) was reported at
the Federal Aviation Administration station at Miami International
Airport. A pressure of 940 mb (27.75 inches) was measured in the
calm of the eye on Upper Sugarloaf Key.

observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters had
flight-level winds that corresponded to surface winds near 110 kt.
Thus, given sampling considerations, the 115-kt intensity is
retained for this advisory. Irma should maintain this intensity
until the center reaches the southwest Florida coast, and then begin
to weaken while the system interacts with the landmass of the
Florida peninsula. Increasing southwesterly shear associated with
an upper-level trough should also cause weakening of the hurricane
during the next day or so. More rapid weakening is likely after Irma
moves into the southeastern United States in 24-36 hours, and the
cyclone should weaken to a remnant low in 72 hours or sooner. The
official intensity forecast is close to the simple and corrected
consensus models.

The center of Irma wobbled more northward over the past few hours
and the initial motion estimate is about 350/8 kt. Irma is embedded
within a broad mid-level gyre over the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone
is expected to be steered north-northwestward at a faster forward
speed over the next day or two on the eastern side of the gyre. This
will take Irma inland over northern Florida early on Monday and the
southeastern United States over the next couple of days. The track
guidance remains fairly tightly clustered with the ECMWF track a
little to the left and slower than the other models. The official
track forecast lies between the model consensus and the ECMWF
solution. This is just slightly east of the previous official
forecast.

A crane has collapsed in Miami

The service has also announced an extreme wind warning for Collier County: its radar detected winds stronger than 115mph, “associated with the eyewall” of the storm, are approaching the coast 10 miles south of Everglades City. Nearby are Naples, Marco Island, Chokoloskee, and Golden Gate Estates.

“The safest place to be,” the agency advises, “is in a reinforced interior room away from windows. Get under a table or other piece of sturdy furniture. Use mattresses, blankets or pillows to cover your head and body. Remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions.”


Florida governor Rick Scott is giving a noon briefing, with details about the Florida Keys, where reporters and officials have been almost entirely cut off from the mainland.

Seawater has flooded over US-1, the road connecting the archipelago to the peninsula, and the Keys have already recorded up to 12 inches of rain. South Florida should expect an additional eight to 15 inches of rain, he says.

South-west Florida should expect huge and fast storm surges: up to 15 feet of impact above ground level. The Big Bend area will see surges of four to six feet, and Tampa will see a surge of five to eight feet – more than enough to move cars and as tall or taller than a person, with the force of brutal hurricane winds. “The storm surge comes after the strongest winds,” Scott warns, saying that when the wind dies down “do not think it’s safe to come out.”

“The storm surge could rush in and kill you. You need to stay in a safe place.”

The storm surge could be before the storm or after the storm, depending on the winds and your location, Scott says. What’s certain is that it will surge on both coasts.

There have been tornadoes all across central and south Florida, and hurricane force winds will be felt today as far north as Tallahassee, the capital. “Take this deadly storm seriously. Stay safe,” he says. “Pray.”

If it's the type of crane I'm thinking of (there a few types) they should have lowered the boom and secured it...

The booms are free to swing in the wind like weather vanes, and they are supposed to be able to stand hurricane-force winds.

The NWS on Key West meanwhile has just reported that – based on its reading of a social media photo – the storm ssurge at Cudjoe Key was 10-14ft. “Photograph showed water nearing the base of a house on stilts, stated to be approximately 15 feet above ground level.”

Hurricane Irma has dslowed to a category three storm with sustained 120mph winds, and is steadily approaching landfall on Florida’s gulf coast.

The storm is about 35 miles south of Naples. It has drained massive amounts of water from Tampa Bay ahead of storm surges, cut off the Florida Keys, and put swaths of downtown Miami underwater. Tornadoes have cut across much of central and east Florida, including one formed in the last hour near Fort Lauderdale airport.

The National Hurricane Center’s 2pm advisory warns people not to underestimate the storm, which will “remain a powerful hurricane while it moves near or along the west coast of Florida”.

The NHC’s Atlantic Office has just issued an all-caps warning for everyone on the state’s western coast: “MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATER!”

A crane has collapsed in Miami

Looting has started...