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Fnord
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09 Apr 2020, 8:35 am

As of 2020-04-09, at 05:26:33.

7,800,000,000 Total Global Population (appr.).
1,498,833 Total Confirmed Global CoViD-19 Infections.
337,074 Total Confirmed Global Recoveries.
89,733 Total Conformed Global Deaths.

0.0192% Global Infection Rate (appr.; up 0.0008% since yesterday).

21.0 Deaths for every 79.0 Recoveries, so far.

Source:
Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Website



EzraS
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09 Apr 2020, 8:40 am

I don't expect the ratio of recoveries and deaths to change much. Unless an effective treatment can be established.



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09 Apr 2020, 8:50 am

I check the world counts on the Sick Map John Hopkins site daily. I'm surprised the global count of confirmed cases isn't even 1.5 million. I think it was at around 1.3 million days ago. That doesn't seem like exponential growth any longer.



Fnord
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09 Apr 2020, 9:29 am

Yes, there were more deaths yesterday, but less more than the day before.


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EzraS
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09 Apr 2020, 9:55 am

Magna wrote:
I check the world counts on the Sick Map John Hopkins site daily. I'm surprised the global count of confirmed cases isn't even 1.5 million. I think it was at around 1.3 million days ago. That doesn't seem like exponential growth any longer.


Based on the case numbers there has never been exponential growth so far when compared other viruses and pandemics. 1.5 million is a small number just for the US much less the entire world. That's why I figure there has to be many more than that. Either that or a whole lot of people are immune to it.



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09 Apr 2020, 9:56 am

CDC director downplays coronavirus models, says death toll will be 'much lower' than projected
Models released last week showed the virus could kill 100,000-240,000 Americans.

One of the nation’s top public health officials suggested Monday that because Americans are taking social distancing recommendations “to heart,” the death toll from the novel coronavirus will be “much, much, much lower” than models have projected.

“If we just social distance, we will see this virus and this outbreak basically decline, decline, decline. And I think that's what you're seeing,” said Robert Redfield, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control.

“I think you're going to see the numbers are, in fact, going to be much less than what would have been predicted by the models,” he said.


https://abcnews.go.com/Health/cdc-direc ... d=70011918


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EzraS
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09 Apr 2020, 9:58 am

Fnord wrote:
Yes, there were more deaths yesterday, but less more than the day before.


I've looked at graphs of other pandemics like the 2009 swine flu and they were pretty zig zaggy dipping and climbing. But very hopefully there won't be a sudden spike.



Fnord
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09 Apr 2020, 10:00 am

EzraS wrote:
Fnord wrote:
Yes, there were more deaths yesterday, but less more than the day before.
I've looked at graphs of other pandemics like the 2009 swine flu and they were pretty zig zaggy dipping and climbing.  But very hopefully there won't be a sudden spike.
We'll know in about 2 to 3 weeks.


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EzraS
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09 Apr 2020, 10:01 am

Darmok wrote:
CDC director downplays coronavirus models, says death toll will be 'much lower' than projected
Models released last week showed the virus could kill 100,000-240,000 Americans.

One of the nation’s top public health officials suggested Monday that because Americans are taking social distancing recommendations “to heart,” the death toll from the novel coronavirus will be “much, much, much lower” than models have projected.

“If we just social distance, we will see this virus and this outbreak basically decline, decline, decline. And I think that's what you're seeing,” said Robert Redfield, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control.

“I think you're going to see the numbers are, in fact, going to be much less than what would have been predicted by the models,” he said.


https://abcnews.go.com/Health/cdc-direc ... d=70011918


I am certainly no expert but from watching the rate of progression over the last few weeks, I did not see that happening.



EzraS
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09 Apr 2020, 10:02 am

Fnord wrote:
EzraS wrote:
Fnord wrote:
Yes, there were more deaths yesterday, but less more than the day before.
I've looked at graphs of other pandemics like the 2009 swine flu and they were pretty zig zaggy dipping and climbing.  But very hopefully there won't be a sudden spike.
We'll know in about 2 to 3 weeks.


Yep I agree with that.



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09 Apr 2020, 10:02 am

In Connecticut it looks like the Governor is trying to make sure that there is a bed in an isolation ward and a ventilator for everyone who needs it. 39% of nursing homes have at least one infected person as of yesterday.
He is trying to make sure that even disadvantaged groups are getting proper care in this crisis.



Fnord
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09 Apr 2020, 10:46 am

My concern is that once the general public gets the idea that CoViD-19 is not going to wipe out human civilization, they're all going to over-react, form one massive mosh pit and get infected anyway.


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EzraS
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09 Apr 2020, 10:51 am

I can definitely see that happening.



Karamazov
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09 Apr 2020, 11:04 am

You know, I’m starting to suspect that you guys have met humans before.



Fnord
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09 Apr 2020, 11:08 am

Indeed.

That's why I prefer the company of domesticated cats.


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EzraS
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09 Apr 2020, 11:09 am

Karamazov wrote:
You know, I’m starting to suspect that you guys have met humans before.


More like observed.