Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus
Personally I think they're taking too long to find an anti CV19 vaccine - it should be easier with today's technology - it took many years for the efficacious prevention of polio, leprosy and smallpox but there should be more state of the art resources in 2020 surely?
Exactly what I've been saying since February.
"Agenda 21"
The culling of the human population.
I am not pushing this conspiracy theory.
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Order 66... ![]()
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Then there are others who are saying that the virus id losing its potency. But now's not the time to be complacent yet.
That is a question for an expert to answer, I am by no means an expert.
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^ Perhaps Jimmy will be able to enlighten us on that one. Otherwise I'll see what the online resources say...
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CDC says COVID-19 cases in U.S. may be 10 times higher than reported
"Our best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections," Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the CDC, said on a call with reporters Thursday.
The assessment comes from looking at blood samples across the country for the presence of antibodies to the virus. For every confirmed case of COVID-19, 10 more people had antibodies, Redfield said, referring to proteins in the blood that indicate whether a person's immune system has previously fought off the coronavirus.
Those samples aren't just from people who have had antibody testing. They also come from testing performed on donated blood at blood banks or from other laboratory testing of blood.
Currently, there are 2.3 million COVID-19 cases reported in the U.S. The CDC's new estimate pushes the actual number of coronavirus cases up to at least 23 million. "This virus causes so much asymptomatic infection," Redfield said. "The traditional approach of looking for symptomatic illness and diagnosing it obviously underestimates the total amount of infections."
The estimation comes amid rises in cases across the Southeast and Western U.S., particularly among younger adults in their 20s, 30s and 40s.
Also Thursday, the CDC expanded its list of who is at greatest risk for COVID-19 complications, removing the age cutoff of 65.
"There's not an exact cutoff of age at which people should or should not be concerned," Dr. Jay Butler, head of the COVID-19 response at the CDC, said. Rather, a person's risk increases with age, but that doesn't preclude younger adults from complications.
ndeed, people of any age with certain underlying health conditions have a higher risk, though the likelihood of having these conditions increases with age. At risk are those with heart disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, obesity, type 2 diabetes, sickle cell disease and anyone with a compromised immune system.
CDC also clarified the list of other conditions that might increase a person’s risk of severe illness, including asthma, high blood pressure, neurologic conditions such as dementia, cerebrovascular disease such as stroke, and pregnancy.
Research published on Thursday from the CDC specifically addressed the risk in pregnant women. When compared to nonpregnant women with the virus, pregnant women with COVID-19 were more likely to be hospitalized, admitted to the intensive care unit and put on a ventilator.
Death rates between the two groups of women, however, were similar.
Why is the CDC making this announcement based on tests they admit are wrong half the time?
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CORONAVIRUS MORTALITY RATES
While coronavirus is obviously concerning and a very real threat to some people (namely, the elderly and immunocompromised), these data also show that the risk for the rest of the population is quite low.
The CDC has accumulated mortality data about the COVID-19 pandemic from February 1 to June 17. Using this, it is easy to summarize how the disease has impacted Americans differentially based on age and race. Bear in mind, that the CDC's mortality data often lags behind other sources. (For example, the death toll in the United States according to Johns Hopkins is over 120,000, but the CDC's most recent data only shows roughly 103,000.)
Risk of Death from Coronavirus: COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
None of the above data answers the question, "What is my risk of dying from coronavirus if I get infected?" For that, we need to look at the infection fatality rate (IFR), which is the percentage of people who die given that they are infected. (This includes people with asymptomatic infections or those who are infected but never get tested.) One group believes the range is 0.1% to 0.41% (with a point estimate of 0.28%). Another group, which examined deaths in Geneva, Switzerland, concluded that the overall IFR is 0.38% to 0.98% (with a point estimate of 0.64%.)
Of course, IFR varies depending on age. Young people are far less likely to die than older people. The Swiss study estimated IFR's by age group:
While coronavirus is obviously concerning and a very real threat to some people (namely, the elderly and immunocompromised), these data also show that the risk for the rest of the population is quite low.
Source: Coronavirus: COVID Deaths In U.S. By Age, Race
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US hits record high in daily cases
A recent surge in infections and hospitalisations has prompted the states of Texas, Florida and Arizona to pause reopening plans.
Texas's governor ordered bars to close and announced other "targeted measures" on Friday to bring infections down.
Florida announced it was suspending alcohol consumption at its bars.
JHU's previous high of 36,400 was on 24 April when less testing took place.
The US has 2.4 million confirmed infections and 122,370 deaths - more than any other country.
While some of the increase in daily cases recorded is down to increased testing, the rate of positive tests in some areas is also increasing.
The surge in cases was being driven by young people testing positive, especially in the south and west of the US, said the head of the CDC, Dr Robert Redfield.
Which states are worst hit?
Texas, which has been at the forefront of moves to end lockdown measures, has seen thousands of new cases, prompting Republican Governor Greg Abbott to call a temporary halt to its reopening on Friday.
He announced that he was closing bars, stopping river-rafting, and ordering restaurants to return to 50% capacity to try to stem the outbreak.
It is clear that the rise in cases is largely driven by certain types of activities, including Texans congregating in bars," he said in a statement.
Texas confirmed a record 5,996 new cases on Thursday, while there were also 47 more deaths reported, the highest daily toll for a month.
On Friday, Florida broke its own daily record for new infections, reporting 8,942 new cases. The previous record was 5,508, reported on Wednesday. The state now has a total of 122,960 recorded cases and 3,366 deaths.
State officials announced that alcohol consumption was being suspended at bars across the state. However, it was not clear how the new measures would affect restaurants that served alcohol, the Miami Herald reported.
Earlier, Florida's governor said there was no plan to continue reopening step-by-step. "We are where we are. I didn't say we were going to go on to the next phase," Ron DeSantis told reporters.
Arizona has emerged as another epicentre of the crisis. Disease trackers there say the state has "lost control of the epidemic", the Washington Post reports. Governor Doug Ducey, who had been giving businesses a "green light" to reopen, now says Arizona residents are "safer at home".
The light is at "yellow", Gov Ducey said on Thursday. "I'm asking for Arizonans to proceed with caution, to go slower, to look both ways."
Other states, including Alabama, California, Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Wyoming, have all seen record daily increases in the number of confirmed cases this week.
In California, which reported a record 7,149 new confirmed cases on Wednesday, Disney said it was delaying reopening of its Disneyland Park and Disney California Adventure Park originally set for 17 July. The company said it first needed to receive approval from government officials.
Governor Gavin Newsom said the state had carried out more than a million tests over the past two weeks, with about 5% coming back positive. Mr Newsom has made wearing a face mask mandatory in public.
The University of Washington predicts 180,000 US deaths by October - or 146,000 if 95% of Americans wear masks.
The European Union is reportedly considering banning US citizens from entering the bloc as it considers how to reopen its external borders.
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Not sure what the solution is - just stay safe and take responsibility for your own protection, as it seems that conflicting opinions and advice at state and federal level are causing problems for you guys.
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Covid in wastewater.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/28/was ... y-warning/
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You've already beat it, 47,341 new cases yesterday, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... ctions-us/ shows it's mostly the South now.
We're living in interesting times. There were more "interesting" times through the history but I won't complain.
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I bet we'll have a vaccine next year, perhaps multiple vaccines.
We already have a growing list of effective treatments, with many more in the works.
There are over 120 vaccines in trials for the COVID-19 coronavirus.
There are over 125 in Preclinical trials (vaccines not yet in human trials).
There are 11 in Phase I (vaccines testing safety and dosage).
There are 8 in Phase II (vaccines in expanded safety trials).
There are 3 in Phase III (vaccines in large-scale efficacy test).
There are 0 vaccines approved for use.
The New York Times provide a detailed summary of those vaccines in Phase I or beyond, in an article yesterday. Here is a link:
Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker
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Azar warns 'window is closing' on combating Covid spread
"The window is closing," Azar said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "We have to act, and people as individuals have to act responsibly. We need to social-distance. We need to wear our face-coverings if we're in settings where we can't social-distance, particularly in these hot zones."
Azar didn't endorse mask mandates, or announce new federal initiatives to combat the spreading coronavirus. But his call for universal use of masks went beyond any remarks made so far by President Donald Trump or Vice President Mike Pence. Trump has generally avoided wearing or recommending masks. Pence notably did not mention face coverings at a major public health press conference on Friday, even when asked directly about them. But the vice president wore one Sunday when he attended a "Celebrate Freedom Rally" at the First Baptist Church in Dallas.
Azar, who was appointed by Trump, was one of several public health experts and political figures from both parties on the Sunday talk shows urging broader and more consistent mask use to combat the spreading virus, which is hitting record levels in some states including a few November election battlegrounds. Several Republicans urged Trump to signal support for face coverings, rather than politicizing them.
"I wish the president would wear a mask, because millions of Americans admire him and would follow his lead," Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) lamented on CNN. "It also would help get rid of this political debate that if you're for President Trump you don't wear a mask and if you're against President Trump you do wear a mask. The stakes are much too high for that."
Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, who served under Trump, called for mandatory face coverings on CBS' "Face the Nation." "We mandate that people have to wear seat belts in cars, but we're not saying that they have to wear a mask in the setting of an epidemic," Gottlieb said. "If a large percentage of the population, not everyone, but a large percentage of the population wore masks on a regular basis, reasonable quality masks, that alone could reverse the epidemic."
Fewer than half of states have any kind of mask mandates. Not all Democratic governors have enacted them, and fewer Republicans have, even as hospitalizations climb and outbreaks grow. Some Republicans have even moved to prevent local leaders from requiring them.
Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, a Republican whose state saw a 25 percent increase in infections in the last week, told ABC Sunday morning that while masks are "a very important part of the equation," he will not require them.
"We're not going to pass a mandate that is unenforceable," he said.
In Florida, where cases are spiking, Gov. Ron DeSantis warned young people on Sunday to stay away from the elderly and individuals with underlying health issues.
“They need to be thinking about who they're coming into contact with who may be in the more vulnerable groups," DeSantis told reporters in Pensacola.
Florida reported 8,577 new Covid-19 cases Saturday, which DeSantis said was the result of young people crowding into bars and attending graduation parties. More than 3,500 people in the state have died from the virus.
The weekly average rate of positive cases has more than doubled, to 11.7 percent last week from 4.5 percent the week of June 7, DeSantis said Sunday.
Bars that have ignored state-mandated limits on capacity have contributed to a rapid spread of the coronavirus that has outpaced expanded testing efforts, he said.
DeSantis shut down bars and nightclubs statewide on Friday after the state Department of Health reported a record-breaking 9,564 new cases of infection.
Azar on Sunday also called for shifting the country's Covid-19 testing strategy to broadly test pools of people in high-risk populations — like nursing home residents or meat packing workers. That would enlarge testing capacity quickly by putting many samples together — with follow ups if any came out positive for the virus. But his comments mostly focused on shared personal responsibility.
"We all own as individuals, our individual behavior to make sure that we are practicing appropriate social distancing and wearing facial covering when we're not able to, and practicing good personal hygiene and especially protecting our most vulnerable citizens," he said.
At that press conference, the first by the White House's coronavirus task force in two months, the vice president declined to recommend masks even when directly asked. He also downplayed the outbreaks — which are so severe that a handful of states are moving to shut down bars and some of their beaches — as localized "hot spots."
But by holding the event at HHS rather than the White House and including only health officials — compared to past briefings dominated by Trump, his economic advisers, and CEOs friendly to the administration — the task force stressed the seriousness of the current moment, when the country seems to be losing ground weeks after emerging from painful lockdowns.
A CBS News survey released on Sunday shows Americans are highly critical of the Trump administration's handling of the pandemic. It found 62 percent think the U.S. is doing badly at managing the virus. Just 41 percent say the president is doing a "good job" — the lowest since the outbreak began.
Multiple Democratic governors ripped into the administration in interviews on Sunday for insisting that the country is making progress on combating the virus while failing to act on a wave of outbreaks.
"When I heard the vice president talk about how things are just hunky dory, it's just maddening," Washington Gov. Jay Inslee told "Face the Nation," referencing the Friday press conference. "The situation is critical in many places across the United States and all the happy talk and wishful thinking in the world is not going to wash that away."
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo told "Meet the Press" that federal leaders have passed the buck to states and offered only vague guidelines while claiming publicly that the worst is over.
"They're basically in denial," he said. "They don't want to tell the American people the truth. And they don't want to have any federal response."
California Gov. Newsom orders bars closed in counties including Los Angeles, citing coronavirus
The order from Newsom, a Democrat, affected the counties of Fresno, Imperial, Kern, Kings, San Joaquin, Tulare, and Los Angeles -- the most populous in the United States. State officials have asked at least eight other counties to issue local health orders closing bars.
Officials in Texas and Florida have made similar moves, essentially pausing parts of their states' economic comebacks as cases spike.
"COVID-19 is still circulating in California, and in some parts of the state, growing stronger," Newsom announced in a written statement. "That's why it is critical we take this step to limit the spread of the virus in the counties that are seeing the biggest increases."
The governor's decision Sunday represented a marked turn from recent decisions to let local officials decide how and when to let businesses re-open.
Earlier this month, Newsom ordered all Californians to wear masks while out in public amid concerns that residents have failed to voluntarily take precautions.
HOUSTON PARAMEDICS REPORT HOUR-LONG WAIT TIMES TO TRANSFER PATIENTS FROM AMBULANCE TO HOSPITAL
Peña said the department has been receiving a 20 percent higher call volume over the last three weeks, and that when paramedics arrive at the hospital with patients, the time it takes to get the person into the hospital is taking double or triple the normal amount of time.
The longer it takes us to service those critical calls, it is going to cost us in lives," Peña said. “Our system is getting strained.”
He said at least 560 calls for service resulted in hour-long wait times or longer within the past three weeks, straining a department that is already short-handed by about 300 firefighters, with another 241 "out of service" due to either quarantine or positive COVID-19 tests.
“We have 104 ambulances in the system, and we need each one of those to be as efficient as we can," Peña said. “What was taking 20, 30, 35 minutes, now has doubled in certain instances.”
Hospitals in the Texas Medical Center are busier than normal: the TMC announced on its website that 100 percent of its base level ICU beds are full.
Twenty-eight percent of those patients have COVID-19, and the other 72 percent have other illnesses. Hospitals can carry a "sustainable surge capacity," repurposing general beds into ICU beds by equipping them with ventilators, other equipment and staff.
Peña did not reference specific hospitals, but spokespeople from Houston Methodist and St. Luke's Health responded to KHOU's request for comment:
Florida’s Covid Cases Up Fivefold in 2 Weeks: ‘The Numbers Are Scary’
As the inventory manager of Farm Share, an immense South Florida food bank, Mr. Delgado, 51, finds himself holding his breath under his face-covering as he speaks to the many clients who come in without masks, for fear that coronavirus particles will seep through the fabric.
Because he interacts with the public every day, Mr. Delgado sleeps outdoors to avoid contaminating his wife, aging mother-in-law, three sons and grandson. At night, he sometimes peeks through the window to watch his wife sleep. By day, he does socially -distanced yard work with his sons.
“I want to sleep in my house, sleep in my bed,” he said. “I want to hug my wife, my children, grandson, and want to go out to the community not feeling like I’m in ‘The Walking Dead,’ where I’m going to be attacked by a zombie. I want to live. Right now, I don’t feel like I’m living.
“How long is this going to be?”
On Saturday, for the second straight day, Florida crushed its previous record for new coronavirus cases, reporting 9,585 infections. Another 8,530 were reported on Sunday.
Six-hour lines formed in Jacksonville over the weekend as thousands of people flocked to get drive-through tests. Orlando has seen an explosion of coronavirus: nearly 60 percent of all cases diagnosed in that county came in just the past two weeks.
Much of Florida’s new surge in cases appears to follow from the reopening of beaches, bars, restaurants and other social activities. The state’s beaches are full and throngs of revelers pack its waterways on boats.
Many people have had enough of staying inside, feeling trapped and scared. As fear subsided, coronavirus grew.
Florida now joins South Carolina and Nevada among the states that broke daily records over the weekend.
“I’m one of the people who contributed to the 9,000-person day,” said Ian Scott, a 19-year-old college sophomore in Orlando who tested positive on Friday. He has no idea how he got it.
Mr. Scott said that for young people, getting tested has become an amusing pastime. They challenge each other to see who can get the nasal swab test without crying. About half of his fraternity has tested positive.
The median age of new coronavirus patients is now 36, the Department of Health said.
“Those groups are much less at risk for very serious consequences,” Governor DeSantis said of younger patients. But they can spread the virus to their older relatives and others who are medically vulnerable without even realizing it, he stressed.
Officials have done little so far to halt public interactions. The mayor of one affluent Miami suburb implored residents this week to stop throwing house parties; on Friday, state officials prohibited the sale of alcohol in bars. Miami-Dade and Broward counties chose to close its beaches for the busy Fourth of July weekend.
Why is nobody using the term "exponential growth" anymore?
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Cases are way up—but deaths are way down. We haven’t had a 288-death day in the US since March.
In NYC, we had more than 500 deaths A DAY for over a week in April. Yesterday, there were “only” 28 deaths in NYC.
Of course, this is because young people are getting COVID. Of course, this disease can be transmitted into more vulnerable people, potentially meaning many more deaths again. I certainly hope the theories about COVID becoming “less virulent” are true.
?
Looks like it's the opposite.
June 27 506 deaths
June 26 599 deaths
June 25 644 deaths
June 24 688 deaths
June 23 766 deaths
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Last edited by TheRobotLives on 29 Jun 2020, 6:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
