Joined: 30 Jun 2018 Age: 77 Gender: Male Posts: 9,832 Location: Indiana
29 Jun 2020, 9:21 am
According to the CDC, the coronavirus death rates in the U.S.:
Table 1. Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by week ending date, United States. Week ending 2/1/2020 to 6/20/2020. (Updated June 26, 2020)
Week ending date in which the death occurred All Deaths involving COVID-19 Total Deaths---109,188 2/01/2020------- 1 2/08/2020------- 1 2/15/2020------- 0 2/22/2020------- 5 2/29/2020------- 5 3/07/2020------- 33 3/14/2020------- 52 3/21/2020------- 551 3/28/2020------- 3,052 4/04/2020------- 9,504 4/11/2020------- 15,698 4/18/2020------- 16,350 4/25/2020------- 14,103 5/02/2020------- 11,670 5/09/2020------- 10,747 5/16/2020------- 8,772 5/23/2020------- 6,666 5/30/2020------- 5,445 6/06/2020------- 3,904 6/13/2020------- 2,148 6/20/2020------- 481
So despite the fact that coronavirus infections are on the rise in the U.S.. The death rate is dropping like a lead brick. This pandemic is almost over. It is a seasonal virus and we are into the summer.
The most interesting part of this anomaly is the "why". Why are infection rates rising and death rates dropping? IMHO it is related to viral load. As we move into summer, the humidity levels rose into the 40%-60% indoor relative humidity range which locked down the airborne spread of dessicated viral particles and that combined with the added sunlight (which effectively kills the virus) resulted in a reduced viral load. Our immune systems rather then becoming overloaded by a massive viral load, was able to come on-line and counter the virus when the viral load began dropping.
Joined: 25 Aug 2013 Age: 68 Gender: Male Posts: 39,637 Location: Long Island, New York
29 Jun 2020, 10:09 am
jimmy m wrote:
According to the CDC, the coronavirus death rates in the U.S.:
Table 1. Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by week ending date, United States. Week ending 2/1/2020 to 6/20/2020. (Updated June 26, 2020)
Week ending date in which the death occurred All Deaths involving COVID-19 Total Deaths---109,188 2/01/2020------- 1 2/08/2020------- 1 2/15/2020------- 0 2/22/2020------- 5 2/29/2020------- 5 3/07/2020------- 33 3/14/2020------- 52 3/21/2020------- 551 3/28/2020------- 3,052 4/04/2020------- 9,504 4/11/2020------- 15,698 4/18/2020------- 16,350 4/25/2020------- 14,103 5/02/2020------- 11,670 5/09/2020------- 10,747 5/16/2020------- 8,772 5/23/2020------- 6,666 5/30/2020------- 5,445 6/06/2020------- 3,904 6/13/2020------- 2,148 6/20/2020------- 481
So despite the fact that coronavirus infections are on the rise in the U.S.. The death rate is dropping like a lead brick. This pandemic is almost over. It is a seasonal virus and we are into the summer.
The most interesting part of this anomaly is the "why". Why are infection rates rising and death rates dropping? IMHO it is related to viral load. As we move into summer, the humidity levels rose into the 40%-60% indoor relative humidity range which locked down the airborne spread of dessicated viral particles and that combined with the added sunlight (which effectively kills the virus) resulted in a reduced viral load. Our immune systems rather then becoming overloaded by a massive viral load, was able to come on-line and counter the virus when the viral load began dropping.
The median age of those tested positive has dropped dramatically and that means they are less likely to die or be left seriously disabled. The death rate usually lages behind the infection rate. With COVID this is often several weeks. Let’s see what happens when the infected infect their older relatives and fellow shoppers.
If it is affected by the weather why is Brazil a horror show, and the spikes at occurring in the sun belt?. Either it is not seasonable or the weather is a factor but not the predominant one.
Hospital ICU’s at near capacity does not indicate the pandemic is nearly over. It indicates even if it is not killing them it is getting them sick enough to require hospitalization.
Economic and psychological damage vs infection rate is a political and moral choice. If the choice is to keep the health system intact any reopening should not involve any public interaction indoors or no mask.
_________________ “Self Acceptance is a process not a performance” “You are autistic enough. And you always have been”
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013 DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity.
Joined: 30 Jun 2018 Age: 77 Gender: Male Posts: 9,832 Location: Indiana
29 Jun 2020, 11:12 am
ASPartOfMe wrote:
If it is affected by the weather why is Brazil a horror show, and the spikes are occurring in the sun belt?. Either it is not seasonable or the weather is a factor but not the predominant one.
People are looking at the warmth as a parameters. They are focusing on temperature and not the humidity. The focus should be on the indoor environment. Indoor environment can be driven by outdoor environment. Brazil is in the southern hemisphere. They are approaching their fall and winter.
The ideal indoor environment to control the spread of the virus is 40% to 60% relative humidity. The virus is primarily transmitted by desiccated airborne viral particles below 40%. That is why the proper mask such as N95 will limit the spread during the dry winter months. But above 60% the spread of infections is primarily driven by direct contact such as hand to mouth transmissions, or touch transmissions such as kissing, handshakes, sharing dinnerware, etc. Cleanliness becomes more of an issue in hot humid environments.
Quote:
Hospital ICU’s at near capacity does not indicate the pandemic is nearly over. It indicates even if it is not killing them it is getting them sick enough to require hospitalization.
The coronavirus is still out there, people in the U.S. are still getting sick, they are going to hospitals, but the number that are dying are dropping and this is because the viral load is falling.
And that may not be a bad thing. The more people that become infected but survive produces a herd immunity effect. When we again transition back into the winter months when the virus will become deadly again, fewer people will be able to spread the virus. If enough people get it, there will not even be a second wave.
Joined: 30 Jun 2018 Age: 77 Gender: Male Posts: 9,832 Location: Indiana
29 Jun 2020, 11:19 am
I read an article today that had an interesting graph that was originally published in the Washington Post.
The number of new cases in the European Union is far, far lower than the number of new cases in the United States. A rolling seven-day average reveals 24 thousand new cases in the U.S. compared to only 4 thousand in the EU.
Joined: 30 Jun 2018 Age: 77 Gender: Male Posts: 9,832 Location: Indiana
29 Jun 2020, 11:47 am
There were a couple comments to the above article that compares E.U. and U.S. infection rates that are probably worth noting:
vaccinia [pseudonym] wrote: Wonderful, the EU will be battling this for years while the US have a highly reduced R0 in a much shorter period of time. The Infection AUC (area under curve) is inexorable and CANNOT be changed except by a vaccine (2 years away) or a therapeutic (Remdesivir is mediocre for mortality and does little for infection rates and Dex [Dexamethasone] is ok for mortaility but does not affect infection). Thus. it's a pay me now or pay me later deal....by the way, the mortality AUC is similar.
[R0 is the average number of people who will catch the disease from a single infected person, in a population that’s never seen the disease before.]
Daniel Goldman wrote: We're not seeing a second wave. We're seeing the continuation of a first wave. The extreme lockdowns prevented the infection from spreading. That's nice and all, but it also means that the susceptible population is almost as big as it was during the beginning of the outbreak. The lockdowns were ignorant measures that kinked the hose. Now the hose is being released. Modulated social distancing informed by random sampling was the appropriate course of action. But it's not the option that was taken.
There were a couple comments to the above article that compares E.U. and U.S. infection rates that are probably worth noting:
vaccinia [pseudonym] wrote: Wonderful, the EU will be battling this for years while the US have a highly reduced R0 in a much shorter period of time. The Infection AUC (area under curve) is inexorable and CANNOT be changed except by a vaccine (2 years away) or a therapeutic (Remdesivir is mediocre for mortality and does little for infection rates and Dex [Dexamethasone] is ok for mortaility but does not affect infection). Thus. it's a pay me now or pay me later deal....by the way, the mortality AUC is similar.
[R0 is the average number of people who will catch the disease from a single infected person, in a population that’s never seen the disease before.]
Daniel Goldman wrote: We're not seeing a second wave. We're seeing the continuation of a first wave. The extreme lockdowns prevented the infection from spreading. That's nice and all, but it also means that the susceptible population is almost as big as it was during the beginning of the outbreak. The lockdowns were ignorant measures that kinked the hose. Now the hose is being released. Modulated social distancing informed by random sampling was the appropriate course of action. But it's not the option that was taken.
Actually, it's almost exactly what is happening here.
_________________ Let's not confuse being normal with being mentally healthy.
Joined: 19 Nov 2014 Age: 38 Gender: Male Posts: 61 Location: Dunakeszi, Hungary
29 Jun 2020, 12:17 pm
Just wondering if Trump will be forced to wear a mask in public by law like Bolsonaro already had forcedto wear a mask in public or even he will have to pay a fine.
Joined: 4 Feb 2014 Gender: Male Posts: 87,510 Location: Queens, NYC
29 Jun 2020, 1:34 pm
NYC has been using precisely the same criteria since at least April. They include nursing home and prison deaths (but not federal prisons). There aren’t very many tourists these days.
_________________ BOLTZ 17/3 2012 - 12/11 2020 Beautiful, sweet, gentle, playful, loyal simply the best and one of a kind love you and miss you, dear boy
This is the unknown factor that makes the "jumping into herd immunity so the emidemics quickly ends" approach extremely risky. It might simply never work, just like you can't have herd immunity against common cold.
One of the reasons for taking measures to slow the spread down is to gain time so we can learn answers for such questions first.
_________________ Let's not confuse being normal with being mentally healthy.
Indoor restaurant dining in New Jersey, initially set to open Thursday, is postponed indefinitely.
Gov. Phil Murphy announced on Monday that restrictions will remain in place, citing surges in COVID-19 cases in other states "driven by, in part, the return of indoor dining."
"We've always said that we would not hesitate to hit pause if needed to safeguard public health," Murphy tweeted. "This is one of those times."
The announcement comes as some states are experiencing COVID-19 spikes and walking back their own reopening plans.
Northeast: Coronavirus-Related Restrictions By State CORONAVIRUS RESTRICTIONS IN EACH STATE Northeast: Coronavirus-Related Restrictions By State After Texas reported three consecutive days of record-breaking case increases, Gov. Greg Abbott ordered bars to close and restaurants to reduce their seating capacity. And in California, officials mandated the closure of all bars in seven counties and recommended closures in eight others.
Murphy said that social media and news reports showing overcrowding, social distancing violations and a lack of face coverings at some establishments statewide also contributed to the decision to delay indoor dining.
Outdoor dining reopened in New Jersey on June 15 under Stage Two of the state's restart and recovery plan. Food and beverage establishments must follow health protocols including seating no more than eight people at a table and spacing parties at least 6 feet apart.
Murphy noted that many establishments and patrons are complying with reopening requirements, and urged others to do the same.
"The carelessness of one establishment can completely undo the good work of many others," he wrote. "We will not tolerate outlier bars and restaurants — and frankly, patrons — who think the rules don't apply to them."
New Jersey was one of the states hardest hit by the coronavirus earlier this spring, but brought the number of new cases down significantly after weeks of restrictive measures. It was one of the last states to lift its stay-at-home order, doing so only on June 9.
The state was recording more than 3,000 new cases a day for much of April, with cases shrinking gradually over the course of May and June. Murphy said Monday that 156 new cases had been reported, bringing the state's cumulative total to 171, 272.
Mayor de Blasio appears to be reconsidering plans to reopen restaurants for indoor dining next week, citing a busy first week for outdoor dining in NYC and a national surge in novel coronavirus cases. Gov. Cuomo also indicated that indoor dining may be postponed at a press conference later in the morning.
In a press conference on Monday, the New York City mayor said that his office would be examining whether it still made sense to include indoor dining rooms in NYC’s third phase of reopening, which is set to get underway July 6. “We can go into phase three on all the other fronts, but the indoor we really need to examine closely and come to a decision in the next couple of days,” de Blasio said.
Mayor de Blasio attributed the decision to a growing number of novel coronavirus cases nationally. Though he did not cite NYC specifically — where cases remain roughly flat — 311 complaints about social distancing have surged in recent weeks, as local revelers have flocked to bars and restaurants in popular neighborhoods across the city, often without masks.
Roughly 2,500 social distancing complaints were registered during the weekends beginning in June 11 and June 18, according to city data analyzed by the New York Post. The bulk of those violations occurred in Manhattan, with the most violations in the West Village, Upper East Side, and Soho neighborhoods.
“The facts have been worrisome,” de Blasio said during the press conference. “In the course of this week it got worse and worse around the country. We have an issue here.”
Fourteen people have tested positive for COVID-19 in Westchester County — a cluster likely sparked after two families traveled to Florida then attended a graduation ceremony in the suburban New York county, officials said Monday.
The infected people in the cluster visited the Sunshine State — a current hotbed of the coronavirus — then attended a drive-thru graduation ceremony at the Chappaqua train station for Horace Greeley High School on June 20.
Thirteen people who attended the ceremony have tested positive for the virus, Westchester County Executive George Latimer said.
A student who is infected also went to a “field night” event later that night, ABC 7 reported. The event, which was not sanctioned by the school, was attended by juniors and seniors from several high schools in the county.
“Of the 14 that are positive, these people are all inter-related by where they were or by personal association, but that’s what constitutes a cluster,” the county’s health commissioner, Dr. Sherlita Amler said Monday.
All of the people infected are self-isolating for 14 days.
_________________ “Self Acceptance is a process not a performance” “You are autistic enough. And you always have been”
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013 DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity.
Joined: 30 Jun 2018 Age: 77 Gender: Male Posts: 9,832 Location: Indiana
30 Jun 2020, 7:45 am
CORONAVIRUS MUTATION
I read an interesting article this morning on the coronavirus mutation and thought I would share it.
Scientists are trying to understand a mutation of the novel coronavirus seen around the globe that some believe could make the virus more contagious, according to a report.
The mutation, officially designated D614G or "G" for short, has been found to affect the virus' spike protein, which is a structure that allows it to enter human cells. The more effective the spike protein, the easier it can enter a host's body.
Research has suggested that the mutation, which changes amino acid 614 from “D” (aspartic acid) to “G” (glycine) might make the spike protein more effective, which enhances the virus’ infectiousness, according to The Washington Post.
Researchers have found that out of the roughly 50,000 genomes of the new virus uploaded to a shared database, about 70 percent carried the mutation.
“The epidemiological study and our data together really explain why the [G variant’s] spread in Europe and the U.S. was really fast,” Hyeryun Choe, a virologist at Scripps Research, told the paper. “This is not just accidental.”
Choe was the lead author of an unpublished study on the G variant’s enhanced infectiousness in laboratory cell cultures. He said there were a couple of reasons why "G" was more effective in spreading the virus.
In the mutation, the outer parts of those proteins that bind to a human receptor were less likely to break off, which was a fault of SARS-CoV-2, the virus originated in China that causes COVID-19.
The faulty mechanism made it so the SARS-CoV-2 had a harder time invading host cells. He added that "G" has more spike proteins, and said those reasons made the mutation 10 times more infectious in lab experiments, according to the Post.
“I think this mutation happened to compensate,” Choe said.
The mutation was also found to be more contagious in four studies that have yet to be peer-reviewed. One study by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory concluded that patients with the "G" mutation also have more virus in their bodies, making them more likely to spread it to others, the report said.
Choe added the mutation didn't impact the lethality of the virus for those infected, only how contagious it became, according to the paper.
Coronavirus patients are increasingly being stricken by mystery pains even months after they are deemed recovered, according to a report.
“What we are seeing is very frightening,” Prof. Gabriel Izbicki of Jerusalem’s Shaare Zedek Medical Center told the Times of Israel.
“More than half the patients, weeks after testing negative, are still symptomatic.”
Rather than typical symptoms of COVID-19, however, many patients are reporting pain in completely unexpected places, Eran Schenker, director of a clinic in the city of Bnei Brak, told the paper.
“It can appear in the arms, legs, or other places where the virus doesn’t have a direct impact,” Schenker said.
“If you ask about the pain level on a 1 to 10 scale, can be 10, with people saying they can’t get to sleep,” he told the paper.
“Some of them had coronavirus in March, so they may have been recovered for months,” he stressed, saying the long-term pains do not correlate with how seriously ill they were while infected.
“We do scans and can’t see anything, but they have this pain — we’re told about it again and again,” he said.
One 55-year-old man who had coronavirus in March now “feels like he’s broken,” his wife told the paper — even though he tested negative for COVID-19 last month.
“He’s actually worse than he was when he was hospitalized,” she told the paper, saying he is so fatigued, he can hardly walk.
As with almost everything connected to the coronavirus, the complete novelty of the symptoms make them almost impossible to treat.
“Painkillers block the pain but don’t relieve the source, but we don’t know how to address the source and you can’t be on painkillers the rest of your life,” Schenker said.
You really do not want to get COVID-19.
These after-effects should be taken into account when deciding when and how much to reopen or to reopen at all. The patients who get these after-effects are not going to be contributing all that much to the economy, and of course, living a life of misery. If it turns out that half or more of the patients are left with long term or permanent disabilities it should be a game-changer in how we think of COVID-19.
_________________ “Self Acceptance is a process not a performance” “You are autistic enough. And you always have been”
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013 DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity.
29 Jun 2020, 6:45 am
