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EzraS
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04 Mar 2020, 10:26 pm

My dad was telling me about a big pandemic scare being talked about on usenet a long time ago. He found one thread that had the following post:

"We are becoming a nation of cowards and whiners... scared silly by
politicians and the media.

A plane flies over NY and there is panic in the streets. The newest version
of the flu arrives and we have the media with their "instant updates" and
dire scenarios of "what might" happen. PANDEMIC! People killing pigs.
Contaminated peanuts/spinach/beef. Mad cow, ebola, bird flu, swine flu,
boo-hoo.

It is the End Of The World As We Know It!! !! !! !

Film at 11."


https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searc ... uvrP6w8zkJ



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04 Mar 2020, 10:44 pm

A family member who is a nurse at a Hospital told me they got an email that is it hard for the hospital to get PPE equipment because of issue in China and also because people have been buying up the PPE equipment online and that is the reason why the Gov and Doctors have been on TV and the Net saying the masks and equipment won't help you
you just need to wash your hands because they are concerned the health care workers won't be able to get replacement PPE

I was also told that Houston Methodist hospital has a coronavirus patient in ICU but they are not allowed officially tell people as it is being kept quite.

I will try to keep you guy and girl informed on everything I hear.


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EzraS
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04 Mar 2020, 10:45 pm

eikonabridge wrote:
EzraS wrote:
Welp maybe global warming will work to an advantage this year and roll in early summer weather.

Yep, it also provides protein. That is, if you don't mind the cyanide content.
Image
We are heading back to the Jurassic Era level of CO2 and temperature. So, everything is getting bigger and nastier.


I keep hearing about how flying insect population is rapidly diminishing. There being no more bug splat on cars as evidence.



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04 Mar 2020, 10:56 pm

With panic over H1N1 being so revved up in May, I looked up when it started and got: April 2009.

I bet if it had started in January it would have been a lot worse.



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04 Mar 2020, 11:31 pm

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/04/812121540/coronavirus-los-angeles-declares-emergency-and-u-s-reports-80-cases-in-13-states

Quote:
... Newsom declared a state of emergency over coronavirus in California, which has more than 50 confirmed cases, according to health officials. ...
... "Approximately 515 persons have been tested to date," the California Department of Public Health says. ...

Assuming 3 sample tests per person, that's 1,545 sample tests. Divided by 50 it would be around 30:1. Well, that's getting more decent: at par with Korea's level from last week ... but still far below Taiwan's level of 400:1. Anyway, it's good news that 1 million test kits will be ready at the end of this week, but frankly US currently only has the manpower to test about 10,000 samples per day, about 4 times the capability of Taiwan, having 14 times the population. But all in all, US is finally catching up. A bit too late, but better than never.

I just read that Saudi Arabia has 1,400 negative pressure isolation rooms. US still has not published how many negative pressure isolation rooms it has. Taiwan has 1,100. Western Europe and Japan each has 1,800. I was thinking, how come Saudi Arabia is so well prepared? Then I remember, oh, it was recently hit by MERS. That is why. Iran did not suffer as much during MERS, so it wasn't prepared for COVID-19.


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05 Mar 2020, 12:36 am

Brehus wrote:
A family member who is a nurse at a Hospital told me they got an email that is it hard for the hospital to get PPE equipment because of issue in China and also because people have been buying up the PPE equipment online and that is the reason why the Gov and Doctors have been on TV and the Net saying the masks and equipment won't help you
you just need to wash your hands because they are concerned the health care workers won't be able to get replacement PPE.


This has several parts to the answer. There have been several articles in the news over the last week about the lack of availability of face mask. Part of the problem is that most of the face mask are being manufactured overseas, much of it is in China. Since the coronavirus hotspot is China, it is perhaps logical that China would focus the production supplying Chinese needs first.

Some industry officials are attributing the shortages not just to high demand but to disruptions in supply: An outsize share of the world’s surgical masks are made in China — 50%, by its own estimate. But even factories there that have ramped up demand say they are hard pressed to meet local demand. The government has taken over manufacturers, and exports have plunged.

“Before the outbreak of the epidemic, we used to export 600,000-700,000 surgical masks a month, but now the amount is zero," David Peng, manager of Ningbo Buy Best International Trading Co. in Ningbo, south of Shanghai, said. The company's dozen or so suppliers in Hubei, near the center of the outbreak, have been ordered to prioritize government orders.

Apart from shortages of workers, manufacturers say they are struggling to get enough raw materials to make the masks.

Companies that make masks are struggling to keep up.

Medicom Group, a Montreal medical supply company, usually makes 150 million masks per year at its factory near Angers, France. At the beginning of February, the factory had orders for 500 million masks. Orders have only grown since then, the company said, and it has hired new workers and increased capacity at its plants, including two in Shanghai and one in Augusta, Georgia.

3M, the Minnesota-based manufacturer, said it has ramped up production of respirators at its facilities in the U.S., Europe, Asia and Latin America.

Mike Gania of the American Society of Health-Systems Pharmacists said some hospital pharmacies are saying that they have only a one- to two-week supply of masks and that the major wholesalers are unable to fill orders.


Source: Coronavirus fears sparks global run on face masks - even though most people who aren't sick don't need them

The second part of the issues is the governments recommendation that people who are not sick don't need them. That seems almost counterintuitive to a falsehhood. So maybe it is worth discussing.

Let us start with a simple question. Why do surgeons wear surgical mask when they perform operations. Wikipedia says, "A surgical mask, also known as a procedure mask, medical mask or simply as a face mask, is intended to be worn by health professionals during surgery and during nursing to catch the bacteria shed in liquid droplets and aerosols from the wearer's mouth and nose. They are not designed to protect the wearer from inhaling airborne bacteria or virus particles and are less effective than respirators, such as N95 or FFP masks, which provide better protection due to their material, shape and tight seal."

So in general, if you look at the population at large that currently are out in the streets wearing surgical mask, they do not provide protection from the coronavirus. Also many people are buying light weight construction dust mask. These too are unable to filter out extremely small virus particles. So in general terms, people are buying the wrong type of mask and many are wearing them improperly and it is doing them no great good.

So when the CDC says they don't recommend that people wear masks to protect themselves from the virus. The CDC says people infected — or those showing symptoms such as fever and shortness of breath — should wear masks to avoid spreading it to others. Health care workers also need masks, the agency says. This is probably a true statement if they are referring to surgical mask.

But there are other types of face mask. These are generally N95. The construction of these mask have extremely fine filter capable of filtering out virus size material. They are also constructed with good tight seals around the face.

N95 mask are effective but there is a problem here. A run on these types of mask by the general public would mean that many of the doctors and nurses that treat incoming coronavirus patients might not have the N95 mask because they are no longer available (OUT OF STOCK).

Within hospitals, surgical masks are worn by operating room teams — doctors, nurses, anesthesiologists — and frequently by pharmacists. Staff members caring for patients with dangerous infections wear the N95 masks.

So it is a better utilization of resources, if the medical staff gets first priority with this type of mask.


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05 Mar 2020, 3:05 am

i should have brought all the n95 masks we bought back when all of CA and my town were up in flames and ash was falling like it was snow!

duh...

the surgical masks may not filter virus particles, but they convey a message of "stay away from me, i may be contagious", they block the bulk of sneeze material and they prevent you from touching your nose and mouth, for that alone they are better than nothing.


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05 Mar 2020, 3:40 am

Seattle urges people over 60 to stay home 'as much as possible' due to coronavirus

Quote:
Officials from King County in Washington state are urging elderly people, pregnant women and others at higher risk from the coronavirus to stay home and avoid large gatherings as much as possible.

Public health officials in Seattle and King County said Wednesday that “people at higher risk of severe illness should stay home and away from large groups of people as much as possible.”

People at higher risk are classified as people age 60 and older; people with underlying health conditions such as heart disease, lung disease or diabetes; people with weakened immune systems; and people who are pregnant.

“We understand these actions will have a tremendous impact on the lives of people in our community,” the public health department for Seattle and King County said in a statement. “We are making these recommendations in consultation with [the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] based on the best information we have currently to protect the public's health.”

Officials said the steps are not mandatory but are recommended to keep people safe.


Coronavirus in N.Y.: 9 New Cases, All Connected to Westchester Man
Quote:
Just a day after a Westchester County man was confirmed as New York’s second case of the new coronavirus, the authorities revealed on Wednesday just how readily it was spreading, saying that nine people connected to the man had all tested positive.

The sudden jump in positive results — from one on Sunday to 11 by Wednesday — reinforced what officials had warned about for weeks: As investigators traced the virus’s spread and began to test more people, the number of cases was likely to grow.

The state’s disease detectives continued working furiously, sorting through the circle of friends, family and co-workers of the people who had tested positive for the virus. State officials said they had asked more than 1,000 people to voluntarily isolate themselves.

Late Wednesday, New Jersey officials announced the state’s first case of the coronavirus, a man in his 30s who had been hospitalized since Tuesday in Bergen County, just across the Hudson River from New York City.

The nine new cases in New York on Wednesday included the Westchester man’s wife; his son, a 20-year-old college student in Manhattan; his daughter, 14; and a neighbor who drove the man to the hospital.

A friend of the man who spent time “in close proximity” with him also tested positive for the virus, as did that friend’s wife and three of their children, Mr. Cuomo said.

Officials said they were still uncertain how the man, 50, who had not been to any areas with widespread transmission of the virus, had become infected. He became ill on Feb. 22 and was admitted to NewYork-Presbyterian Lawrence Hospital in Bronxville, N.Y., five days later.

So far, public health workers have focused their efforts on determining whether any other people connected to the man were infected. They advised some nurses and doctors at the hospital in Bronxville that they would need to be quarantined. Eight employees there were being tested for the virus, Mr. Cuomo said on Wednesday.

The man is the only one of the people confirmed to have the virus to be hospitalized so far. His family is quarantined at home in New Rochelle, just north of New York City.

On Tuesday night, restaurants on a main avenue in New Rochelle were nearly empty, and store shelves had been cleared out of spray disinfectant, rubbing alcohol and bleach.

Among those asked to self-quarantine were a group of people who had come into contact with the man and subsequently attended the annual conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee in Washington this week, the event’s organizers said in a note emailed to conference attendees and posted on Twitter on Wednesday.

The conference organizers said in the note that “to our knowledge” no one who attended the event — which typically draws thousands of people, including many members of Congress — had tested positive for the virus.

The lawyer’s 20-year-old son, a student at Yeshiva University in Manhattan who lived in campus housing, had not been at the school since Feb. 27, officials said. He had shown symptoms of the virus but was “getting better,” Mr. de Blasio said.

Classes at the university’s campuses in Washington Heights and Midtown will be canceled until Friday, school administrators said.

On Wednesday, the typically bustling campus seemed largely deserted, with streams of students hailing taxis or heading toward the subway to leave campus with luggage in tow.

In and around the university, the coronavirus was the major topic of conversation, with many students saying that anxiety had steadily risen.

“You can’t even cough without people losing their minds,” Jared Weinstein, a freshman, said as he walked through campus.

New York Law School in TriBeCa also canceled classes and closed its facilities after a student there reported having contact with the Westchester man.

The Westchester man’s daughter, who was asymptomatic, is a student at the Salanter Akiba Riverdale High School in the Bronx. The school had been voluntarily shut down by administrators on Tuesday and Wednesday and would remain closed until after the Purim holiday on March 10, Mr. Cuomo said. An associated school, the SAR Academy, would also be closed through Friday as a precaution.

The Hastings-on-Hudson and Mount Vernon public school districts in Westchester County also closed schools through Friday to sanitize them “out of an abundance of caution” after learning that a parent in Hastings-on-Hudson and two students in Mount Vernon were under self-quarantine after possibly having been exposed to the virus.

With the virus spreading, around 300 students and faculty at State University of New York and City University of New York campuses who were studying abroad in China, Italy, Japan, Iran and South Korea — all of which have been epicenters of the illness — would be asked to come back to the United States, Mr. Cuomo said.

They would travel back to the U.S. on a chartered plane and be quarantined upon arrival for two weeks, Mr. Cuomo said. The state was identifying dormitories where they would be isolated.

Several New York City employees not connected to the Westchester case, including five police officers and one public-school teacher, all of whom had traveled to an affected country, were self-isolating as a precaution, Mr. de Blasio said. Officials had not yet tested them for the virus but planned to, he said.

Asked about potential public school closures, Mr. de Blasio said the city had a “basic capacity” to provide remote learning.

The city schools chancellor, Richard A. Carranza, said that school closures would represent a “last resort” because of the many issues that significant closures would create.


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05 Mar 2020, 3:53 am

EzraS wrote:
My dad was telling me about a big pandemic scare being talked about on usenet a long time ago. He found one thread that had the following post:

"We are becoming a nation of cowards and whiners... scared silly by
politicians and the media.

A plane flies over NY and there is panic in the streets. The newest version
of the flu arrives and we have the media with their "instant updates" and
dire scenarios of "what might" happen. PANDEMIC! People killing pigs.
Contaminated peanuts/spinach/beef. Mad cow, ebola, bird flu, swine flu,
boo-hoo.

It is the End Of The World As We Know It!! ! ! ! ! !

Film at 11."


https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searc ... uvrP6w8zkJ


I am old enough to remember the 1968 Hong Kong Flu Pandemic that killed an estimated "1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States". I was in 5th grade at the time. Out of my class of 25 only 5 of us made it to class. We did not wear masks and school was not closed until the scheduled Christmas break which ended the outbreak.

Infectious Diseases: A2-Hong Kong-68, or Whatever - Time Magazine December 13, 1968
Quote:
A plague was moving across the U.S. last week. Hundreds of thousands of Americans were sniffling, hacking, running low fevers and complaining that their bones ached. The vast majority of adults said they had "the flu," and many tried to show their medical sophistication by identifying it as "Hong Kong flu."

In most cases, the precise identity of the affliction and the microbe causing it was unknown. Cautious doctors described their patients' illnesses simply as "URD" or "URI" (for upper respiratory disease, or upper respiratory infection) and let it go at that. Whatever its nature, the illness was emptying schools and offices, stripping military installations of active-duty personnel, and decimating Broadway casts. Jane Morgan in the title role and eight other players in Mame had to yield their places to understudies. The cast of George Ml had five out. Playing the barber in Man of La Mancha, Leo Blum became so ill that he fell off the stage, and since his understudy was ill, the stage manager had to pinch-hit. At the Metropolitan Opera, John Alexander had to give up after two acts of La Sonnambula. And in Philharmonic Hall, Pianist Jose Echaniz could not even make it past intermission.

Notice
1. The caviar tone of the reporting.
2. The show went on crowded theater and all.

Either people were not snowflakes or stupid or both.


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ouinon2
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05 Mar 2020, 4:41 am

ASPartOfMe wrote:
EzraS wrote:
"We are becoming a nation of cowards and whiners... scared silly by politicians and the media.
I am old enough to remember the 1968 Hong Kong Flu Pandemic that killed an estimated "1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States.
Quote:
... the illness was emptying schools and offices, stripping military installations of active-duty personnel, and decimating Broadway casts. Jane Morgan in the title role and eight other players in Mame had to yield their places to understudies. The cast of George Ml had five out. Playing the barber in Man of La Mancha, Leo Blum became so ill that he fell off the stage ... . At the Metropolitan Opera, John Alexander had to give up after two acts of La Sonnambula. And in Philharmonic Hall, Pianist Jose Echaniz could not even make it past intermission.
Notice
1. The cavalier tone of the reporting.
2. The show went on, crowded theater and all.

Either people were not snowflakes or stupid or both.

If it only killed 1 million worldwide then it was a lot less deadly, 10 - 100 times less deadly, than the current virus. But even so it "emptied schools and offices" etc.

But yes, the attitude of the journalist is indeed quite astonshingly matter of fact, laconic even, with a touch of dead pan humour, which you almost certainly wouldn't see/get away with today.

I think that people were more used to death, to people dying around them, than now. Almost all adults had lived through a "great war".

People *seem* to be much more risk averse than they used to be. You see it in the design of children's playgrounds, etc.

I don't know how much this is because a price has been put on almost every single kind of damage that it's possible to suffer, ie how much it's going to cost the individual, their family, society generally, or the insurer.

But on the other hand the vast majority of people regularly and routinely consume huge amounts of substances which have a well documented negative effect on health and life expectancy. :?

In fact many humans seem in many ways to have become in fact more prone to taking risks, less careful with their bodies ... perhaps because they have been trained/conditioned to believe that it will be OK, because "insurance" will cover it? ....

Perhaps a little like rich people in the Middle Ages who used to give money to the church to "make sure" that "their sins would be forgiven"/that they would still "go to heaven" whatever else they did? ... ...

... ... I expect that somebody is making money, on the stockmarket maybe, ( rather than the Catholic Church ;) ), out of encouraging/feeding people's snowflakiness.



Last edited by ouinon2 on 05 Mar 2020, 5:10 am, edited 2 times in total.

ASPartOfMe
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05 Mar 2020, 5:06 am

ouinon2 wrote:
ASPartOfMe wrote:
EzraS wrote:
"We are becoming a nation of cowards and whiners... scared silly by politicians and the media.
I am old enough to remember the 1968 Hong Kong Flu Pandemic that killed an estimated "1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States.
Quote:
... the illness was emptying schools and offices, stripping military installations of active-duty personnel, and decimating Broadway casts. Jane Morgan in the title role and eight other players in Mame had to yield their places to understudies. The cast of George Ml had five out. Playing the barber in Man of La Mancha, Leo Blum became so ill that he fell off the stage ... . At the Metropolitan Opera, John Alexander had to give up after two acts of La Sonnambula. And in Philharmonic Hall, Pianist Jose Echaniz could not even make it past intermission.
Notice
1. The cavalier tone of the reporting.
2. The show went on, crowded theater and all.

Either people were not snowflakes or stupid or both.

If it only killed 1 million worldwide then it was a lot less deadly, 10 - 100 times less deadly, than the current virus. But even so it "emptied schools and offices" etc.

But yes, the attitude of the journalist is indeed quite astonshingly matter of fact, laconic even, with a touch of dead pan humour, which you almost certainly wouldn't see/get away with today.

I think that people were more used to death, to people dying around them, than now. Almost all adults had lived through a "great war".

People *seem* to be much more risk averse than they used to be. You see it in the design of children's playgrounds, etc.

I don't know how much this is because a price has been put on almost every single kind of damage that it's possible to suffer, ie how much it's going to cost the individual, their family, society generally, or the insurer.

But on the other hand the vast majority of people regularly and routinely consume huge amounts of substances which have a well documented negative effect on health and life expectancy. :?

In fact many humans seem in many ways to have become in fact more careless of risk, less careful with their bodies ...

While the flu was common that pandemic was unusual, that is why I remember it so clearly over 50 years later.
Today's parents would faint if they saw the playgrounds we used, the burning metal rusted slides, standing on top of the monkey bars no hands.
Everybody is more lawsuit-happy. They determine decisions more than merit.


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ouinon2
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05 Mar 2020, 5:40 am

ASPartOfMe wrote:
[ ref Hong Kong flu 1968 ]
Quote:
A plague was moving across the U.S. last week. Hundreds of thousands of Americans were sniffling, hacking, running low fevers and complaining that their bones ached. The vast majority of adults said they had "the flu," and many tried to show their medical sophistication by identifying it as "Hong Kong flu." In most cases, the precise identity of the affliction and the microbe causing it was unknown. Cautious doctors described their patients' illnesses simply as "URD" or "URI" (for upper respiratory disease, or upper respiratory infection) and let it go at that. Whatever its nature ...

It occurs to me that something has happened since then, or rather two things, which may be contributing to the scale of the apparent panic phenomenon now.

The first one is that scientific testing, screening and identification processes have become much more sophisticated in the last 30 years, enabling much earlier and much more specific red flags/alarms to be sounded and various complex detection and containment/protection measures to be taken while problems still "small scale".

The second thing is the rise of computer/IT enabled/driven big data crunching and the internet. Illnesses and deaths which might just 30 years ago have passed unnoticed until the numbers were really big get noticed much earlier, when numbers are still relatively low but calculations indicate that it's going to get very very big.

This does make people's reactions seem sort of silly when look at the actual existing numbers of dead ... .... *but* not so silly when look at the big data crunched projections of 126 million dead .... People are reacting to and taking increasingly seriously the ever more elaborate and "tenuous" virtual realities conjured up by IT ... before the physical one catches up ...

... which sometimes doesn't but sometimes does/will.



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05 Mar 2020, 8:47 am

Just saw a headline that the death toll in China has reached 3,000.

The city of Wuhan where it started has a population of about 11,800,000.

I am no good at math. What percentage is 3,000 out of 11,800,000?

This thread started Jan 22 which was 43 days ago.

This virus is a bad thing. But it is no "Captain Trips" (name of killer super-flu bio-weapon that got lose in The Stand by Stephen King).



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05 Mar 2020, 8:51 am

EzraS wrote:
Just saw a headline that the death toll in China has reached 3,000.

The city of Wuhan where it started has a population of about 11,800,000.

I am no good at math. What percentage is 3,000 out of 11,800,000?

This thread started Jan 22 which was 43 days ago.

This virus is a bad thing. But it is no "Captain Trips" (name of killer super-flu bio-weapon that got lose in The Stand by Stephen King).


3000 out of 11.8 million is 0.025 percent



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05 Mar 2020, 8:59 am

The total number of recoveries so far is more than half the total number of infected so far.


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05 Mar 2020, 9:01 am

Bravo5150 wrote:
EzraS wrote:
Just saw a headline that the death toll in China has reached 3,000.

The city of Wuhan where it started has a population of about 11,800,000.

I am no good at math. What percentage is 3,000 out of 11,800,000?

This thread started Jan 22 which was 43 days ago.

This virus is a bad thing. But it is no "Captain Trips" (name of killer super-flu bio-weapon that got lose in The Stand by Stephen King).


3000 out of 11.8 million is 0.025 percent


Thanks.

In The Stand everyone in the military bio-weapons lab died pretty quickly after the containment breach. I am wondering if there is any info regarding the personnel of that Wuhan bio-lab contracting the virus.