Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

Post Reply New Topic

I read an interesting article this morning that had to do with the loss of credibility in public health experts.

Of all the things we have lost this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic – from the people we love to the jobs that put food on the table – one of the more pernicious is the loss of faith and confidence that Americans have in their public health institutions. How did it happen?

It’s not simply a matter of being wrong. It’s okay to be wrong, especially when confronted by a situation in which confusing and contradictory evidence changes on a daily basis. As long as experts admit to being wrong and can explain why, trust can actually increase because the public appreciates transparency.

A loss of credibility, therefore, happens for other reasons. In the case of coronavirus, we believe there are five reasons: Incompetence, waffling, moving the goalposts, disregarding unintended consequences, and being political.

Incompetence. Incompetence is far worse than being wrong. It puts on full display that the people in charge don’t actually know what they’re doing.

The CDC displayed incompetence when it sent out diagnostic tests that didn't work because they were tainted with the coronavirus. Later, it was revealed that the agency was conflating two different types of COVID-19 tests, one that detects active infections and the other that detects past infections. Undergraduate biology students know that you cannot add the numbers from two very different tests. This was not a case of adding apples to oranges; it’s more like adding apples to cheeseburgers. This absurd error nullified precious data that other officials were using to make decisions about lockdowns.

Likewise, the FDA displayed incompetence by failing to approve new coronavirus tests in a timely manner, setting back our country’s ability to track infections by several critical weeks.

Waffling. As data change, we should expect public health advice to evolve (slowly) over time; this is the nature of science. What is unacceptable is waffling, that is, giving one answer one day and a completely different answer another day. The WHO did that when it announced that asymptomatic carriers only rarely transmitted coronavirus infections, only to retract the statement 24 hours later.

Moving the goalposts. At the beginning of the pandemic, public health officials urged the need to “flatten the curve,” the goal of which is to prevent a spike in infections that overwhelms healthcare systems. This is an achievable and necessary goal.

Over time, however, “flatten the curve” took on a new meaning. Instead of slowing the spread of the disease – to decrease the burden on overloaded hospitals and buy time for the development of drugs or vaccines – the goal became to stop disease transmission entirely. This is a ludicrous goal because – like stopping the spread of the common cold or influenza – it is nearly impossible. Similarly, “finding a cure” became a common refrain, despite the fact that there may never be a good vaccine or antiviral for coronavirus.

Disregarding unintended consequences. Like the side effects of a drug, all policies have unintended consequences. The lockdown caused major damage to the economy, prevented cancer patients from receiving treatment, and increased the prevalence of mental illness. For these and other reasons, some experts believe that the lockdown cost more lives than it saved. Regardless if that is ultimately true, at the very least, uniform shutdown policies imposed without regard for differences in population density and local infection rates were deeply flawed.

Being political. The absolute worst way to damage credibility is to choose sides in our toxic culture war. Yet, public health experts did precisely that, too.

Many of the same experts who endorsed strict lockdowns in order to “stay home, stay safe” then endorsed anti-racism protests in which thousands of individuals crammed together on city streets. Public health advice is supposed to be apolitical and evidence-based. Such blatant political advocacy did not go unnoticed. A damning headline in Politico noted, “Suddenly, public health officials say social justice matters more than social distance.

Exacerbating all of these problems is extreme partisanship, in which point-scoring and blame-shifting are seen as more important than creating a unified front. This failure of leadership stretches from the White House down to Governors’ Mansions and City Halls across the nation.

At their best, public health experts deserve credit for eradicating smallpox and turning fatal diseases like HIV into manageable chronic illnesses. At their worst, they act like bureaucrats and political partisans. The resulting loss of credibility makes us all worse off.

Source: Coronavirus: Five Reasons Public Health Experts Have Lost Credibility

Which Drugs And Therapies Work And Which Don't?

Wow! Two interesting articles in one day! This article is written by William Petri.

I am a physician and a scientist at the University of Virginia. I care for patients and conduct research to find better ways to diagnose and treat infectious diseases, including COVID-19. Here I’m sharing what is known about which treatments work, and which don’t, for the new coronavirus infection.

Keep in mind that this field of medicine is rapidly evolving as our understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 virus improves. So what I am writing today may change within days or weeks.

Below are the treatments that have been tried and for which we have the best knowledge.

Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine – no evidence they work

There are three randomized controlled trials of hydroxychloroquine, all of which have failed to prove or disprove a beneficial or harmful effect on COVID-19 clinical course or clearance of virus. Given this current lack of evidence, these drugs, which normally are used to treat arthritis, should only be used within the context of a controlled clinical trial.

Lopinavir/ritonavir – not helpful

The drug Lopinavir is an inhibitor of an enzyme called HIV protease which is involved in the production of viral particles. Protease inhibitors for HIV were revolutionary, leading to our current ability to effectively treat HIV. Lopinavir also can inhibit enzymes that perform similar functions as the HIV protease in the SARS and MERS coronaviruses. Ritonavir increases the level of Lopinavir in the blood so the lopinavir/ritonavir combination was tested in a randomized controlled clinical trial for COVID-19.

Unfortunately, there was no impact on the levels of virus in the throat or duration of viral shedding, nor did patients’ clinical course or survival change. There therefore is no role for lopinavir/ritonavir in the treatment of COVID-19.

Steroids – yes for almost all COVID-19 patients

When a synthetic steroid hormone, called dexamethasone, was given to patients with COVID-19 the drug decreased 28-day mortality by 17% and hastened hospital discharge.

This work was performed in a randomized and controlled clinical trial of over 6,000 patients, and while not replicated in another study or yet peer reviewed, is certainly enough evidence to recommend its use.

Tocilizumab – too early to judge

Tocilizumab is an antibody, that blocks a protein, called IL-6 receptor, from binding IL-6 and triggering inflammation. Levels of IL-6 are higher in many patients with COVID-19, and the immune system in general seems to be hyperactivated in those with the most severe disease. This leads many physicians and physicians to think that inhibiting the IL-6 receptor might protect patients from severe disease.

Tocilizumab is currently FDA approved for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and several other collagen-vascular diseases and for “cytokine storm” – a harmful overreaction of the immune system – that can be caused by certain types of cancer therapy and COVID-19.

A retrospective observational study found that COVID-19 patients treated with tocilizumab had a lower risk of mechanical ventilation and death. But we lack a randomized controlled clinical trial so there is no way to ascertain if this apparent improvement was due to tocilizumab or from the imprecise nature of retrospective studies.

Convalescent plasma – too early to judge

Convalescent plasma, the liquid derived from blood after removing the white and red blood cells, contains antibodies from previous infections that the plasma donor had. This plasma has been used to prevent infectious diseases including pneumonia, tetanus, diphtheria, mumps and chickenpox for over a century. It is thought to benefit patients because antibodies from the plasma of survivors bind to and inactivate pathogens or their toxins of patients. Convalescent plasma has now been used in thousands of COVID-19 patients.

However, the only randomized clinical trial was small and included just 103 patients who received convalescent plasma 14 days after they became ill. There was no difference in the time to clinical improvement or mortality between those who did and did not receive treatment. The encouraging news was that there was a significant decrease in virus levels detected by PCR.

It is therefore too early to tell if this will be beneficial and controlled clinical trials are needed.

Remdesivir – yes, decreases hospital stay

Remdesivir is a drug that inhibits the coronavirus enzyme that makes copies of the viral RNA genome. It acts by causing premature stoppage or termination of the copying and ultimately blocks the virus from replicating.

Remdesivir treatment, especially for patients who required supplemental oxygen before they were placed on a ventilator reduced mortality and shortened the average recovery time from 15 to 11 days.

ACE inhibitors and ARBs – keep taking them

There was a concern that drugs called ACE inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), which are used to treat high blood pressure and heart failure, could increase levels of the ACE2 proteins, the receptor for SARS-CoV-2, on the surface of cells in the body. This would, physicians hypothesized, allow more entry points for the virus to infect cells and would therefore boost the severity of new coronavirus infections.

However, there is no evidence that this is the case. The American Heart Association, the Heart Failure Society of America and the American College of Cardiology all recommend that patients continue to take these medications during the pandemic as they are beneficial in the treatment of high blood pressure and heart failure.

We have made amazing progress in the treatment of COVID-19. Two therapies – steroids and remdesivir – have already been shown to help. Those who benefit from these treatments owe thanks to patients who volunteered to participate in controlled clinical trials, and the physicians and pharmaceutical companies that lead them.

Source: Coronavirus: Which Drugs And Therapies Work And Which Don't?

STATUS OF SUPPLIES

When the Coronavirus struck, many people were caught off-guard. Shortages occurred almost overnight. I remember one day I mentioned from past experience that there might be a shortage of toilet paper. In less than a weeks time a global shortage of toilet paper materialized. Even I, who normally prepares for all adversity, must admit I was somewhat unprepared.

I had some N95 masks which I bought a decade ago but I did not store them properly and they were totally mildewed. It took me a week to sanitize them and kill off the mildew. I wore a single N95 mask for 4 months afterwards until it became so ratty that I finally tossed it.

The worse supplies that quickly disappeared were the medical supplies that could hold the virus at bay.

The N95 mask disappeared almost at the onset, then the other types of face mask disappeared from store shelves. A week later all the hand sanitizers were gone. Then as people realized there was technological solutions to the viral spread such as using UVC sanitizers to kill the virus, these too disappeared.

So I thought I might discuss the status of these medical type supplies from my perspective [in the U.S.].

Hand Sanitizer gel is back in stock. So is Sanitizing wipes. Face masks are also widely available.

N95 face mask are still widely unavailable. IMHO these are the masks that really count because they filter out these microscopic viral particles. I have been checking with a company called ULINE, which is a major distributor of many items including N95s. They originally projected July, then they moved it to August, now it is September/October when these masks are projected to become available again. So I guess, they will not be available by the time the second wave hits at the beginning of winter. There are Knock-Off N95s on the market called KN95s. Many of these have been found to be unable to meet the filtrations standards of the N95. The FDA has banned many of these.

One of the problems with reusing N95 face mask is that the mask can be contaminated by the virus. Therefore they are normally a one time use item. But they can be used periodically for several months, if you don't get them wet and if you can sterilize them without destroying the filtration qualities of the mask. So early on in the pandemic I bought a couple Professional UV Sterilizer Box made by Beutil to sterilize the mask. This type of item has been around for a number of years. They were being used to sterilize baby pacifiers, cell phones, underwear, eyeglasses, jewelry, beauty tools etc. After I purchase these, they disappear from Amazon. And they have not returned. But there are a wide variety of manufacturers of these items, so there is not a shortage.

At the beginning of the pandemic, I purchased an air filter that uses UltraViolet (UVC) light to kill the airborne viruses in my home. It is a small unit designed for one room. When it arrived, I played with it a little and installed it in our bedroom and have been running it continuously for over 4 months now. It keep the air so clean that I have never slept so good in my entire life. The unit is called an OION Technologies B-1000 Ionic Air Purifier with UVC sanitizer. So after playing with it for a week, I purchased two more one for each of my grown daughters and gave it to them. Then almost immediately, they disappeared from Amazon. Well I noticed that they were back in stock today, so I purchased another spare. Interesting the price has actually dropped a little on the units.

Although the B-1000 offer a quick solution, it is less than ideal because it does not protect the entire house. So the best approach is to buy a UVC sanitizer that fits inside the ductwork of an HVAC system (the air inlet side). So I purchase one for my daughter called a REME-HALO. It is a commercial grade unit. There are other manufacturers such as Honeywell that makes commercial units. There are cheap units sold on Amazon but when I read the reviews, many said the units were broken when received and most had poor ratings. Is there a shortage of these units? It is hard to tell.

One of the other interesting items that flew off the store shelves were vitamins. I remember visiting our local big box store a few weeks back and the vitamin shelves were almost bare. Well the vitamin supplements are back and this shortage seemed to disappear. Research out of Europe is showing that Vitamin D is important in combating this coronavirus. It doesn't stop the infections but rather once someone contracts the virus, it minimizes and reduces the symptoms substantially. This makes some sense that Vitamin D is a major player on a solution.
* As a person ages, their bodies become deficient in manufacturing this vitamin. (That is one reason why the elderly are most vulnerable.)
* Whereas most vitamins are produced by our bodies from the foods we eat, this is not the story about Vitamin D. Our bodies produce this vitamin by sunlight striking our skin cells. In wintertime, people in high latitude climates are exposed to less sunlight.

COVID-19 strains can be identified by cluster of symptoms, study says

As I said yesterday, I bought a REME-HALO whole house filter for my daughter to protect their family from the coronavirus. Make their home a safe place. Well yesterday I read the box in which the filter came in. It read:

It incorporated 6 technologies: PHI, PCO, Bi-Polar Ions, UV, Hydrophilic and Cold Plasma.

So no wonder that the unit looks like something out of Star Wars.



As a result I searched the internet in order to try and understand these particular features. I primarily bought the unit for UVC germicidal sanitizer. Anyways this is what I found:

PHI [Photohydroiozination] -
Simulates the natural interaction between sunlight, water, and chlorophyll to purify the air. The principle of the tech is that instead of waiting for the dust to pass through the filter, the filter itself produces particles that find dust and sterilize them. On the other hand, PHI does everything that HEPA filter can do, and more at the same time. It removes dust mite, mold, toluene, PM2.5 particles- literally everything pollutant in the air. It can even eliminate bad odor. Adding on to that, it decomposes harmful gases and at the same time, deodorizes the air. The 99% sterilization rate means no air purifier has ever been as efficient as the ones using PHI technology.

PCO [Photocatalytic Oxidation] -
Photocatalytic oxidation purification is a process that involves a light-activated catalyst reacting with organic pollutants to oxidize them. Essentially, these pollutants undergo a chemical reaction that transforms them into non-toxic substances. PCO sterilize microorganisms, preventing them from growing or infecting. Airborne viruses, bacteria, fungal spores, and fungal fragments adhere to the catalyst where they are subjected to the oxidative species generated by the photocatalytic process. Microbial cell walls are destroyed through interaction with the free radicals generated on the light activated catalyst surface. Toxins and allergic substances are also oxidized in this process, so any components of the organism that may cause health problems are also safely destroyed. Toxins are invisibly present in any fragment of a microbe. The oxidative effect of a PCO device is destroys these toxins.

Bi-Polar Ions -
Bi-polar ionization splits water vapor into harmless positive and negative ions that are discharged into the air. These ions attach themselves to allergens such as VOCs, fine particulates, smoke, dust, pollen, dander and more. In addition to deactivating contaminants at the cellular level, particles continue to bond to each other until they are heavy enough to drop out of the air.

Far UltraViolet (UVC) -
UVC light sanitizer acts by penetrating the thin wall of a small microscopic organism and destroying its nucleic acids. This disrupts the DNA structure and either kills it or renders it unable to reproduce - and therefore harmless. UVC sanitizers kill bacteria and viruses very effectively because it kills germs regardless of drug resistance and without toxic chemicals. It is also effective against all germs, even newly-emerging pathogen strains.

Hydrophilic -
Hydrophilic, literally meaning “water loving”. Hydrophilic filters can be wetted with virtually any liquid, and are the preferred filters for aqueous solutions, as appropriate by compatibility. Once wetted, hydrophilic filters do not allow the free passage of gases until the applied pressure exceeds the bubble point and the liquid is expelled from the pores of the membrane.

Cold Plasma -
Cold plasma air purifier work by emitting both positive and negative ions. These ions have a similar makeup to water, which allows them to separate and rejoin around the harmful particles. When the ions join around the toxins, they become trapped within the plasma filter, effectively removing them from the air. [Some use the term “cold plasma” interchangeably with “bi-polar ion”. So they may be one and the same.]

So this leads to some questions:
What is the difference between Cold Plasma and Bi-Polar Ion?
What does Hydrophilic mean in terms of an air purifier? How does it make the air cleaner?

Can anyone help in resolving these questions?

IS IRAN THE EPICENTER OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC?

Iran has been accused of not reporting accurate numbers, of under reporting. I guess now it has swung in the opposite direction. It is now claiming 25 million cases, doubling the total worldwide caseload.

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani estimated that up to 25 million people in the country have been infected with coronavirus - nearly double the official worldwide tally.

Despite his estimate as well as urging citizens to take precautions, the country will not reimpose lockdown restrictions.

Rouhani, speaking in a televised address on Saturday, referenced a new study by the Iranian Health Ministry that has not been publicly released, and he did not cite specifics on how the estimates in cases were reached.

The current official coronavirus case total stands at more than 14 million, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.

Rouhani also said he believes an additional 30 to 35 million people could be infected in the coming months. Iran’s population is around 81 million people.

The president also said more than 200,000 people have been hospitalized and the report predicts that that number will soon be "twice as many as we have seen in the last 150 days.”

The same Johns Hopkins tally says 271,606 Iranians have been infected with coronavirus, with 13,979 deaths. The pandemic has also further debilitated the country's severely crippled economy, already struggling from U.S. imposed sanctions.

Faced with a spike of 2,166 cases on Saturday and 188 deaths in 24 hours, authorities in Tehran have closed some public spaces such as coffee shops, zoos, amusement parks, boarding schools, and indoor swimming pools and banned religious and cultural gatherings for one week.

It remains the hardest-hit country in the Middle East.

Iran has faced scrutiny about their reporting of coronavirus cases and deaths, which government officials admit are probably well under the actual count.

After denying the existence of the virus in Iran for days after the likely first infection took hold, Iran held mass demonstrations and a parliamentary election, turning out thousands of people en masse.

Two months after the pandemic ramped up, parliament delivered a report in April that estimated the number of people infected at the time was probably “eight to 10 times” higher than the reported figures and said that health officials lacked adequate testing to determine an official prognosis of the virus.

The reported deaths are based solely on people who died of COVID-19 in a hospital setting. Others who may have died at home have not been recorded and some families have opted not to disclose that their loved ones ever had the virus to avoid any stigmas associated with it.

Source: Iran estimates up to 25 million coronavirus cases since outbreak; nearly doubling the total worldwide caseload: report

I guess if I was skeptical of the old numbers, I am equally skeptical of the new ones. I wonder if the new numbers are related to money. In April, Iran requested $5 billion dollars of International Monetary Fund (IMF) for emergency funding to help it fight the coronavirus outbreak.

ANOTHER SHORTAGE

Due to the coronavirus many items disappeared from store shelves. But this one take the cake! I was in Kroger's Grocery Store a few minutes ago and they no longer had any change (coins). They said the Federal Reserve was running out of change. So if someone paid in bills and they were due some coins for change, they gave them a credit for the difference.

Coin Shortage

The coronavirus pandemic has led to a huge shortage of coins in the United States, creating problems for people who depend on cash for everyday purchases. Due to the virus outbreak, many businesses have started asking for payment through cards, e-wallets, or exact change if possible, as a precautionary measure.

Experts believe that it is more of a circulation problem than an overall shortage. On June 17, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had reportedly said that the flow of coins through has stopped due to the partial closure of economy. He added that the places exchanging coins for credit and cash have not been working and the whole system of flow has stopped as stores remain closed.

The U.S. Federal Reserve stated business and bank closures associated with the COVID-19 pandemic have significantly disrupted the supply chain and normal circulation patterns for US coins. It asserted that there is an adequate overall amount of coins in the economy but the slowed pace of circulation has reduced available inventories in some areas of the country.

Source: Why Is There A Coin Shortage In The United States Of America? Federal Reserve Explains



Typically, businesses request coins from banks, which in turn request them from the Federal Reserve Bank. But in June, the Fed announced temporary limits on banks’ requests for coin currency.

Besides a decrease in business transactions, companies that buy change with automated kiosks at malls and grocery stores have seen business drop, meaning there are fewer coins in circulation. The U.S. Mint also reduced the number of employees per shift at its Denver and Philadelphia facilities — which make all the coins for commerce in the U.S. — to enhance social distancing. From January to April, production fell about 35% at the U.S. Mint, a bureau of the Treasury Department. In May, the bureau worked mandatory Saturday overtime and offered voluntary Sunday overtime to ramp up production, a spokesman for the Mint said.

It produced 904.1 million coins in May, about a 13% increase from the April low, and produced 1.5 billion coins in June. For the rest of 2020, it plans to produce more than 1.35 billion coins a month. The Fed wants the Mint to maximize coin production and is asking banks to order only the coins they need to meet near-term customer demands. But “these measures alone will not be enough to resolve near-term issues,” according to the Fed, which expects the shortage to remedy itself as businesses reopen and coin circulation returns to normal.

Source: Coin shortage gives businesses yet another worry amid COVID-19 pandemic

This reminds me of the PlayStation 4 game called "Fallout" where due to a shortage of viable currency, individuals resorted to using bottle caps as a form of money.

The company I work at in Texas an executive and her daughter got an appointment to get tested at one of the drive through test sites they both missed their appointment and got notifed they test positive for Covid-19 and were never tested a co-worker told me her cousin also missed a scheduled test and got notifed he was positive for covid-19

I predicted that it would come to the USA and infect us like it did in China.. back on Feb 1, I even started a Facebook group about it! I saw it coming!! I also said it would be the same here as it was in Italy. I was right!!

There was an article today about updated guidelines from the CDC. There was one point in the article that I thought was important:

In six months since the virus emerged, the CDC said “there have been no confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection.”

Source: CDC updates coronavirus guidelines on isolation, testing

We have had the first death within the larger developmental disabilities community here. A person who lived in a group home. The virus was brought in by a staff person.

My middle brother Mustafa who I've often posted about on WrongPlanet (he's quite a character), likely has it. Has been having 2 days of fever and the symptoms, has tons of things like job interviews, online classes etc so he hasn't gone to get tested yet, just staying home.

All of us have been following protocol for months, with everything they tell you to do- including him (initially when this began he was really annoyed and tried not to), so it's really unexpected.

But that's how this virus works.
Mysterious, it could have been mail, someone sneezing at a supermarket and the droplets getting in past his glasses, I don't know.

I hope he gets tested soon. He hasn't even taken tylenol once for his fever which has been running off and on for days now. I call him to check and he keeps saying he didn't.

I guess if any of my brothers had girlfriends or wives they'd make them get tested for their own sake, too, but it's just them in a house and they're wrapped up in their own worlds instead of helping him.

I had told the eldest of them to give him tylenol and a glass of water but apparently he still hadn't...

My son's nurse told me 2 of the staff and 43 patients died at a hospital after getting covid19 at south lake hospital (a few weeks ago). Her friend works there.

My sister told me that at their hospital they no longer have any covid19 patients which is a relief ..finally.

My parents told me Abu Dhabi's handling it amazingly. She went to a govt place to get a blood test for her thyroid and they made them remove their gloves and replace them, put on protective thing over their clothes, and walk through a thing that sprays disinfectant all over you!
The country still won't let in mail so I still haven't been able to send them eid gifts i had in a parcel for them, and now the next eid's coming in 10 days.
Also curfews, streets getting washed and disinfected, etc.

However my dad told me even with all these precautions, they walked past a hotel room (they live in a hotel) that has a warning sign put on it saying that the occupant within had covid19 and has left the premises, and they're disinfecting the room and whatever.
So even with all these precautions, that person got it.

Makkah is clear of it for a few weeks now apparently but that's because nobody has been allowed in for months and they just put the 2 cities live on youtube so you feel like you're there and can participate in prayer..
which is really nice I guess because it could have been mishandled with so many pilgrims coming and going. I'm glad they did that well at least. Even if they don't do other things correctly like no libraries but lots of malls.