Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

Page 45 of 539 [ 8616 posts ] Go to page Previous 1 ... 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48 ... 539 Next

Previous topic | Next topic

Magna
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 21 Jun 2018
Gender: Male
Posts: 6,932

05 Mar 2020, 2:53 pm

Misslizard wrote:

Rotten Cotton’s take on the origin.
It’s possible, but more likely it was just a sick animal that someone ate.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnew ... rigins.amp

""I'm suggesting we need to be open to all possibilities and we need to demand that China open up and be transparent so a team of international experts can figure out exactly where this virus originated," Cotton said."

And I see what he said as being entirely reasonable. Words to live by: "People who have nothing to hide...hide nothing."

Misslizard
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 18 Jun 2012
Age: 61
Gender: Female
Posts: 20,550
Location: Aux Arcs

05 Mar 2020, 2:55 pm

Well I solved it.Here’s how it spreads.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/metro.co.u ... 59711/amp/

_________________
I am the dust that dances in the light. - Rumi

jimmy m
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 30 Jun 2018
Age: 77
Gender: Male
Posts: 9,832
Location: Indiana

05 Mar 2020, 4:28 pm

Another major milestone achieved.

Anyone showing symptoms of the coronavirus — reported to include fever, cough and shortness of breath — can be tested in the U.S. for the novel virus if a doctor agrees, federal health officials announced this week in expanded guidelines for coronavirus testing.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Wednesday announced the new guidelines. However, the federal agency “strongly encouraged” doctors to first rule out other respiratory illnesses such as the flu before testing patients for the virus.

Source: Doctors can now approve coronavirus testing, CDC says

_________________
Author of Practical Preparations for a Coronavirus Pandemic.
A very unique plan. As Dr. Paul Thompson wrote, "This is the very best paper on the virus I have ever seen."

jimmy m
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 30 Jun 2018
Age: 77
Gender: Male
Posts: 9,832
Location: Indiana

05 Mar 2020, 4:43 pm

Sylkat wrote:

Does anyone know how the spread of Coronavirus compares mathematically to the rapidity of the spread of Black Death?
Didn’t that disease kill 2/3 of Europe’s population?

The Bubonic Plague (the Black Death) ravaged Europe several times. As I remember it would start in China and then slowly work its way into the Middle East and eventually emerge in Europe. Each time the process took a several years to go from China to Europe.

Here is a link to a Wikipedia article on the Black Death. Bubonic plague

In the Late Middle Ages (1340–1400) Europe experienced the most deadly disease outbreak in history when the Black Death, the infamous pandemic of bubonic plague, hit in 1347, killing a third of the European human population. The Black Death originated in Central Asia and spread from Italy and then throughout other European countries. Arab historians Ibn Al-Wardni and Almaqrizi believed the Black Death originated in Mongolia. Chinese records also showed a huge outbreak in Mongolia in the early 1330s. Research published in 2002 suggests that it began in early 1346 in the steppe region, where a plague reservoir stretches from the northwestern shore of the Caspian Sea into southern Russia. The Mongols had cut off the trade route, the Silk Road, between China and Europe which halted the spread of the Black Death from eastern Russia to Western Europe. The epidemic began with an attack that Mongols launched on the Italian merchants' last trading station in the region, Caffa in the Crimea. In late 1346, plague broke out among the besiegers and from them penetrated into the town. When spring arrived, the Italian merchants fled on their ships, unknowingly carrying the Black Death. Carried by the fleas on rats, the plague initially spread to humans near the Black Sea and then outwards to the rest of Europe as a result of people fleeing from one area to another.

_________________
Author of Practical Preparations for a Coronavirus Pandemic.
A very unique plan. As Dr. Paul Thompson wrote, "This is the very best paper on the virus I have ever seen."

Magna
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 21 Jun 2018
Gender: Male
Posts: 6,932

05 Mar 2020, 4:53 pm

jimmy m wrote:

My doctor didn't mention testing when I contacted him on Tuesday of this week. I've been home sick since with what I assume is just a bad cold. I told him that I was in contact with someone (hugged them) who flew from San Francisco last week.

jimmy m
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 30 Jun 2018
Age: 77
Gender: Male
Posts: 9,832
Location: Indiana

05 Mar 2020, 8:14 pm

Magna wrote:

This is a new change that happened just today.

_________________
Author of Practical Preparations for a Coronavirus Pandemic.
A very unique plan. As Dr. Paul Thompson wrote, "This is the very best paper on the virus I have ever seen."

Syd
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 23 Dec 2007
Gender: Female
Posts: 1,280

06 Mar 2020, 1:00 am

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

Quote:

Mainland China: 80,552
South Korea: 6,284
Russia: 4

Alrighty then. Nothing suspicious about that. Nothing at all.

cyberdad
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 21 Feb 2011
Age: 58
Gender: Male
Posts: 36,036

06 Mar 2020, 1:01 am

Over here in Australia a school and hospital have now been shut down in Sydney

ouinon2
Snowy Owl

Joined: 5 Jul 2016
Age: 62
Gender: Female
Posts: 127

06 Mar 2020, 2:49 am

Bruce Aylward, medical officer of epidemiology, ref infectious clusters, etc, for the World Health Organisation, said a couple of days ago that he predicts 3 months of cases increasing to a peak in June followed by 3 months of tailing off.

I thought that he might be underestimating. lol But what I didn't realise immediately but have now is that this means it will seem dreadfully slow, to me anyway. It feels as if, after an initially fast moving start nothing new is happening.

Numbers keep growing, slowly, everywhere, but there are few or no new dramatic developments, disappointingly like many zombie/plague films and TV series in which discoveries and revelations dry up rapidly, replaced by "management".

I suppose I will/might feel differently in a month or two's time, and/or when I or someone I know catches it and/or has to self-isolate for real, or go to hospital. Right now it feels as if the emergency is over and it's business as usual.

Incidentally, does anyone have any theories for why Germany has 545 cases but, unlike France, Italy, etc no deaths at all and very very few critical/severe cases? Is their health service that much better or their population that much more resilient?

ASPartOfMe
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 25 Aug 2013
Age: 68
Gender: Male
Posts: 39,637
Location: Long Island, New York

06 Mar 2020, 4:05 am

Coronavirus update: Microsoft says two employees test positive

Quote:

Microsoft Corp confirmed early on Friday that two of its employees have been diagnosed with COVID-19.

"A Microsoft employee and a LinkedIn employee, both in Puget Sound, are among those diagnosed with COVID-19," the company said in a statement.

Tech firms in Seattle, a new focal point for the coronavirus epidemic, were telling employees this week to take advantage of technology to work remotely in an effort to contain the outbreak.

Ten of the 12 US fatalities from the outbreak have been in the northwest state, leading to an emergency declaration by the state and proactive measures in the community where tech plays a major role in the economy.

Online retail and cloud computing colossus Amazon, which has transformed the northwestern US city with its urban campus, has given its more than 50,000 employees in the region a green light to work remotely.

"We are recommending that employees in Seattle/Bellevue who are able to work from home do so through the end of the month," Amazon told AFP.

Facebook and Google, which have been steadily expanding operations in Seattle, are also encouraging workers in the state of Washington to stay away from the office to reduce risks amid a global outbreak which has killed more than 3,000 people and led to closings of schools and factories in some countries.

Microsoft, with headquarters in Redmond, a short distance from Seattle, put out word to employees this week that if possible, they should work from their residence for the next couple of weeks.

People considered more vulnerable to succumbing to COVID-19, such as those older than 60 years of age or with medical conditions, were told to arrange for time off if their jobs require them to go to the office, according to an online post by Microsoft.

_________________
“Self Acceptance is a process not a performance”
“You are autistic enough. And you always have been”

Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity.

firemonkey
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 23 Mar 2015
Gender: Male
Posts: 5,850
Location: Calne,England

06 Mar 2020, 8:16 am

Early research on existing drug compounds via supercomputing could combat coronavirus

Quote:

Researchers at the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory have used Summit, the world's most powerful and smartest supercomputer, to identify 77 small-molecule drug compounds that might warrant further study in the fight against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which is responsible for the COVID-19 disease outbreak.

The two researchers performed simulations on Summit of more than 8,000 compounds to screen for those that are most likely to bind to the main "spike" protein of the coronavirus, rendering it unable to infect host cells. They ranked compounds of interest that could have value in experimental studies of the virus. They published their results on ChemRxiv.

The idea was born out of an interest in the coronavirus' entry point into a host cell. When Chinese researchers sequenced the virus, they discovered that it infects the body by one of the same mechanisms as the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, virus that spread to 26 countries during the SARS epidemic in 2003. The similarity between the two virus structures facilitated the study of the new virus.

https://phys.org/news/2020-03-early-dru ... ombat.html

_________________
Socially drifted middle class

jimmy m
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 30 Jun 2018
Age: 77
Gender: Male
Posts: 9,832
Location: Indiana

06 Mar 2020, 9:37 am

ouinon2 wrote:

Incidentally, does anyone have any theories for why Germany has 545 cases but, unlike France, Italy, etc no deaths at all and very very few critical/severe cases? Is their health service that much better or their population that much more resilient?

Influenza has been around for hundreds of years and different regions have learned methods for surviving. The coronavirus is a form of influenza. The Germans found the sauna to be a very healthy tool.

John Hopkins has a mapping tool for the spread of the coronavirus. Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE When I looked at the map this morning I noticed that Iceland has a disproportionally high level. For an island with a population of 364,260; it now has 37 confirmed cases. I scratched my head for a little while and then I remembered that Iceland is a popular cruise ship destination.

_________________
Author of Practical Preparations for a Coronavirus Pandemic.
A very unique plan. As Dr. Paul Thompson wrote, "This is the very best paper on the virus I have ever seen."

eikonabridge
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 25 Sep 2014
Age: 63
Gender: Male
Posts: 929

06 Mar 2020, 9:42 am

ouinon2 wrote:

Numbers keep growing, slowly, everywhere, but there are few or no new dramatic developments, disappointingly like many zombie/plague films and TV series in which discoveries and revelations dry up rapidly, replaced by "management".

You remind me of kraftiekortie and cyberdad. When there were little reporting, they thought things were coming to an end. No reporting unfortunately meant there were cases developing beneath the radar. Kraftiekortie went so far as to say New York City has zero confirmed cases, with its 5 Chinatowns, and repeated his optimism several times. Back then he had no idea that US simply did not have test kits to check on whether people were infected.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The number of confirmed cases is not a good measure. Whether a country is doing well or not, should be measured by the ratio (number of samples tested)/(number of confirmed cases). Unfortunately, they don't publish that number. Another excellent ratio is (number of confirmed cases admitted to AIIR)/(number of confirmed cases hospitalized), where AIIR stands for Airborne Infection Isolation Room. Again, they don't publish this number, either. In Taiwan, those numbers are 400:1 and 100%, respectively.

At any rate, Iran just had 1,234 new cases yesterday.

_________________
Jason Lu
http://www.eikonabridge.com/

Last edited by eikonabridge on 06 Mar 2020, 9:58 am, edited 2 times in total.

Teach51
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 28 Jan 2019
Gender: Female
Posts: 2,808
Location: Where angels do not fear to tread.

06 Mar 2020, 9:51 am

eikonabridge wrote:

ouinon2 wrote:

You remind me of kraftiekortie and cyberdad. When there were little reporting, they thought things were coming to an end. No reporting unfortunately meant there were cases developing beneath the radar. Kraftiekortie went so far as to say New York City has zero confirmed cases, with its 5 Chinatowns, and repeated his optimism several times. Back then he had no idea that US simply did not have test kits to check on whether people were infected.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The number of confirmed cases is not a good measure. Whether a country is doing well or now, should be measured by the ratio (number of samples tested)/(number of confirmed cases). Unfortunately, they don't publish that number. Another excellent ratio is (number of confirmed cases hospitalized)/(number of confirmed cases admitted to AIIR), where AIIR stands for Airborne Infection Isolation Room. Again, they don't publish this number, either. In Taiwan, those numbers are 400:1 and 100%, respectively.

At any rate, Iran just had 1,234 new cases yesterday.

The problem in the US is that it's a private health system and you are correct, not enough sample tests are being taken. In Israel almost all outgoing and incoming flights have been cancelled. The situation is grave. 90,000 people are in isolation to date, relative to a population of 9 million that's a lot. 19 with an active disease, zero fatalities so far.
What's interesting is that one woman has had it twice

_________________
My best will just have to be good enough.

Magna
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 21 Jun 2018
Gender: Male
Posts: 6,932

06 Mar 2020, 9:55 am

Why would China lock down entire cities if the mortality rate is less than 3%?

eikonabridge
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 25 Sep 2014
Age: 63
Gender: Male
Posts: 929

06 Mar 2020, 10:13 am

Magna wrote:

Why would China lock down entire cities if the mortality rate is less than 3%?

Why would any government offer autism services, if the prevalence rate is less than 3%?

_________________
Jason Lu
http://www.eikonabridge.com/

Page 45 of 539 [ 8616 posts ] Go to page Previous 1 ... 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48 ... 539 Next

Jump to:

Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus Post Reply New Topic

Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus