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jimmy m
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04 Nov 2020, 7:50 pm

Coronavirus has infected 1.7 million New Yorkers, study estimates

An estimated 1.7 million New Yorkers have had COVID-19 — six times the official count, a study released Tuesday suggests. Researchers from the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai also found the coronavirus was circulating through the five boroughs “long before” the first recorded case, the study published in Nature states.

The researchers used more than 10,000 plasma samples taken from the beginning of February to July during routine health visits and COVID-19 hospitalizations to reach their conclusion.


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kraftiekortie
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04 Nov 2020, 8:00 pm

I never lost my sense of taste/smell.

I had slight fever, chills, fatigue, "wet" pins-and-needles sensations. Basically, I felt like a mild case of the flu to me. It lasted 3 weeks, though.



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05 Nov 2020, 7:31 am

Some bad news from Denmark:

Denmark plans to cull up to 17 million mink to stop mutated coronavirus

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/05/euro ... index.html

What it says... We're even bringing in the military to assist in the culling.

Antibodies are not very efficient at protecting against this mutated strain, so those who have already recovered could get re-infected by the new strain.

For the same reason the COVID vaccines currently under development might not be able to protect against it. If it spreads abroad, it could undermine worldwide efforts to create a functional vaccine.



jimmy m
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05 Nov 2020, 10:54 am

Canada quietly updates COVID-19 guidelines on risk of airborne spread

Canada has quietly revised its guidelines on how COVID-19 spreads to include the risk of aerosol transmission, weeks after other countries and international health organizations acknowledged the airborne threat of the coronavirus. "This is pretty major," said Linsey Marr, one of the top aerosol scientists in the world and an expert on the airborne transmission of viruses at Virginia Tech. "The big difference now is that ventilation is important — distancing alone is not enough."

The update to PHAC's guidelines came after Canada's Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam recommended the use of three-layer non-medical masks Tuesday to prevent the spread of COVID-19 ahead of winter weather that could bring more people together indoors. "If we were only concerned about large droplets, then pretty much almost any piece of single layer of fabric would work," she said. "But because we are concerned about aerosols, then we do need to think about the quality and fit of our masks and we know that having multiple layers improves the filtering performance of masks."

Studies of superspreading events, such as a choir practice in Washington state, a call centre in South Korea and a restaurant in China, have supported the conclusion that some degree of transmission is occurring through aerosols. Virus particles were also found in the air at a nursing home outbreak in May in Montreal, where a faulty ventilation system may have been a source of transmission that infected 226 residents and 148 employees. An outbreak at a spin studio in Hamilton, Ont., saw at least 85 people infected and prompted the city to announce new, enhanced guidelines for gyms and fitness centres including mandatory masking. "The gym followed all the guidelines: they had distancing, they did hygiene, they had people wearing masks before and after," Marr said, "but if it were just all large droplets, then the distancing and hygiene would be sufficient — but obviously, it wasn't."


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05 Nov 2020, 11:18 am

The US just reported more than 100,000 new Covid-19 infections, the most cases in a single day since pandemic's start

Quote:
The US recorded a staggering 102,831 new Covid-19 infections Wednesday -- the first time since the start of the pandemic it has reported a six-figure number.

The new high, as harrowing as it is, is only one part of a number of grim indicators pointing to what experts have already projected: an unprecedented fall and winter surge that will likely continue to get worse.

In just the past week, the US saw its top five days with the highest case numbers, with the country's previous record set at 99,321 infections on October 30. The nationwide 7-day average of new infections is now about 89,859, up by about 108% in just a month.

Now more than 9.4 million Americans have been infected with Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic and more than 233,000 have died, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

And every day, states across the country continue to report alarming patterns. At least 36 states are reporting more new cases than the previous week while only three states -- Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee -- are trending in the right direction, according to Johns Hopkins.

In a statement to CNN, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott was critical of a shutdown ordered by El Paso County Judge Ricardo Samaniego, saying the judge "illegally" shut down businesses in response to a rise in infections.

In one part of Kansas, closest ICU bed 6 hours away.

Across the US, more than 52,000 people are hospitalized with Covid-19, according to the COVID Tracking Project.
Hospitalizations peaked in at least 16 states Wednesday, the project said, adding that 20 states have more than 1,000 people currently hospitalized with the virus.

Dr. Steven Stack, Commissioner of the Kentucky Department for Public Health said officials are concerned "not that we will first run out of bed space but that we may not have enough health care workers to staff all those beds."

If it is not time to panic yet that time is getting really close.


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06 Nov 2020, 7:37 pm

Dr. Scott Gottlieb says actual number of new daily U.S. Covid cases is ‘at least half a million’

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The U.S. probably has more than half a million new coronavirus infections per day, significantly more than the actual number of diagnosed cases, Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC.

“Remember 120,000 cases aren’t 120,000 cases. We’re probably, at best, diagnosing 1 in 5 cases right now,” the former FDA chief said.

“We’re building up a lot of trouble for the future, and I think that this is going to explode in several weeks,” he added.

The worrisome indicators extend beyond just case counts, Gottlieb said. Hospitalization data is troubling, he said. The average number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 is up by at least 5% in 36 states, according to a CNBC analysis of data from the Covid Tracking Project, which is run by journalists at The Atlantic.

The mortality rate for Covid-19 patients has improved during the pandemic, as doctors and health-care workers are more experienced at treating the disease, Gottlieb noted. Additionally, he said more patients are being treated at home, compared with the early days of the outbreak in the spring.

The challenge facing the country right now is, simply, the number of people who are infected, he said. More infections ultimately will lead to more hospitalizations, which at a certain point strains health-care resources, he said.

“It’s just a fact that, even if we get the death rates down and we manage people in the hospital better, and ... we’re discharging people more easily, more quickly, we’re infecting a lot more people, so eventually the health-care system is going to get pressed,” Gottlieb said. He pointed to places where it’s already happened, such as Green Bay, Wisconsin, where a field hospital was set up last month.

Earlier in the pandemic, when a particular area such as New York experienced a severe crunch in its health-care system, it was easier to provide it with extra resources from around the country, Gottlieb said. “But if you have very diffuse spread across the country, which is where we’re headed, it’s going to be hard for the federal government to backstop that much.”


Cuomo to deploy National Guard troops to N.Y. airports for COVID-19 enforcement as infection rate rises
Quote:
National Guard troops will be deployed to New York airports to make sure arriving travelers have proof of recently testing negative for COVID-19, Gov. Cuomo said Friday.

The deployment follows a sweeping new entry test policy announced a week ago after the Empire State abandoned its travel advisory that mandated travelers from coronavirus hotspots quarantine for two weeks.

Airlines, the NYPD and the Port Authority are assisting with the effort.

If a test comes back positive, local health officials will issue isolation orders and initiate contact tracing to identify and quarantine other people exposed to the virus. Anyone caught violating a quarantine order could face a civil penalty of up to $10,000. The testing mandate does not apply to neighboring states.


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06 Nov 2020, 11:26 pm

Right now, 8:15, Friday night; I just got back from walking my dog. Walked past 2 people standing on the sidewalk smoking.
Of course, you cannot wear masks when smoking cigarettes.
The reason they were smoking outside is because smoking is not allowed in the B&B they were in front of.
So, they could be sharing/spreading any respiratory illness from whatever state they are from to anyone here, or picking up something from a passer-by, and taking it to their home state.
The Health Department and the officials are doing their best, but the public HAS to take this seriously!! :(


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jimmy m
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07 Nov 2020, 12:00 pm

COVID: Sweden's Experiment Didn't Work, Belgium Is A Basket Case, And U.S. Isn't As Bad As We Think

Early in the COVID pandemic, most countries, particularly those in Europe, chose harsh lockdowns to get the coronavirus under control, and they were largely successful. But not all of them. Sweden was the notable exception that implemented a different strategy.

Sweden's idea was, with the exception of a few enforced restrictions, to allow life to go on mostly as normal and to impose only voluntary restrictions. So while European countries were furiously working to quash new infections, Sweden took a more laissez-faire approach. Did it work? There are a couple of ways to answer that question. First, we can compare the second wave in Sweden to the second wave in other countries. Second, we can compare the infections in Sweden to those of its Nordic neighbors, Norway, Finland, and Denmark. By both measures, Sweden's experiment didn't work so well.

But Sweden is a blip on the radar compared to other European countries. Belgium is an absolute basket case, with the worst infection rate on the continent. Hospitals are overwhelmed. Government incompetence appears to play a role. Countries that once had the virus under control, like France, Italy, and the UK, have now completely lost control.

Image

The U.S. (magenta line) clearly had a very bad summer, even worse than Sweden's. But once autumn came, new viral infections in several European countries soared way past those in the United States. In terms of total COVID deaths per 100,000 people, the U.S. isn't doing wonderfully, but it's also not unusual when compared to European countries.

Image


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jimmy m
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07 Nov 2020, 12:36 pm

Coronavirus antibodies could last 6 months or more

After months of uncertain speculation, researchers have reported their strongest evidence yet that patients recovered from the coronavirus have a stronger, faster immune response if they’re exposed a second time.

The Rockefeller study included 87 patients with COVID-19, who were tested for antibodies just after one month and again at around six months, by which time their defenses had fallen to only about 20% compared to patients’ peak levels. However, researchers are less concerned with the overall concentration of leftover antibodies because they showed to be especially fortified to combat the disease a second time around.

Scientists call this the immune system’s “memory,” supported by its T- and B-cell anti-viral militias. The two immune cell types work together in their efforts to produce antibodies in the blood, then suppress and kill SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19. More specifically, T-cells lead the attack against the virus directly by annihilating infected cells, while B-cells analyze the virus in order to produce antibodies, which gather and trap invaders. Finally, macrophages, yet another critical immune cell, would then come to clean up the mess.

At the same time, the U.K. Coronavirus Immunology Consortium recently posted an immune study of its own on BioRxiv. Its study of 100 people who previously tested positive for the coronavirus showed “robust T-cell responses” six months out. “T-cell responses were present in all individuals at six months after SARS-CoV-2 infection,” read a report on the consortium’s website. “A robust cellular memory against the virus persists for at least six months.”


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07 Nov 2020, 8:16 pm

Why do we have to have threats like this that things won’t go as planned? :roll:

Quote:
Denmark is putting over a quarter of a million of residents on lockdown after discovering coronavirus outbreaks among bred minks, including a mutated strain.

The government announced a number of restrictions on parts of northern Denmark, the area hit hardest by the infections. Two days ago, officials ordered the mink population to be killed, totaling up to 17 million animals.

Restaurants in these areas are closed to diners. Public transportation within the region are shut down. Gatherings are largely limited to 10 attendees. Colleges are instructed to switch to online classes with a few possible exceptions.

The regional health authority said it was preparing to test the 280,000 residents in the affected areas for the coronavirus.

The mutated strain has not been found to be more dangerous than the coronavirus, but Danish officials warn it appears to have a weak reaction to antibodies. This could affect a future vaccine's effectiveness.

Twelve people have been diagnosed with the mutated virus strain so far, according to the World Health Organization. About 200 coronavirus cases overall can be traced to exposure from mink in Denmark.


Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO's technical lead for COVID-19, called the animal-to-human transmission among minks "a concern" during a WHO briefing Friday.

However, she stressed that viruses regularly mutate and the organization has been tracking changes from the beginning.

"It's too early to really jump to conclusions as to the implications of what the specific mutations have," Soumya Swaminathan, WHO chief scientist, said during the briefing. "I don't think we should come to any conclusions about whether this particular mutation is going to impact vaccine efficacy or not. We don't have any evidence at the moment."

Still, Danish officials are taking quick preventive measures. Kåre Mølbak, director of infectious diseases at Denmark's State Serum Institute, warned a mutated strain could complicate the global battle against the coronavirus.

"The worst-case scenario is that we would start off a new pandemic in Denmark," Mølbak said, according to The Guardian. "There's a risk that this mutated virus is so different from the others that we'd have to put new things in a vaccine, and therefore [the mutation] would slam us all in the whole world back to the start."

Control measures to prevent the spread of mink-related strains beyond northern Denmark are being developed, WHO said in a statement to NPR.

The U.K. said Friday it will require travelers coming from Denmark to self-isolate for 14 days in light of the mink outbreaks.

Denmark, which is the world's largest supplier of mink fur, is offering compensation to breeders in exchange for culling the animals.

But it represents a huge blow to the industry, said Tage Pedersen, president of the Danish mink breeders association.

"It is a dark day for all of us and for Denmark," Pedersen said, according to The Guardian. "Of course, we don't want to be the cause of another pandemic, but the government's decision is a disaster for our industry and Denmark. It is a de facto permanent shutdown and liquidation of the fur industry."



cyberdad
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07 Nov 2020, 9:45 pm

I guess the crowds in NY celebrating the election result aren't helping with spreading

Image

But I can understand the sentiment.



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08 Nov 2020, 6:24 am

cyberdad wrote:
I guess the crowds in NY celebrating the election result aren't helping with spreading

Image

But I can understand the sentiment.

Not great but most of them had masks on unlike some other political demonstrations.


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08 Nov 2020, 6:34 am

Here, the long-predicted collapse of the healthcare system is happening.
40% excess death rate is reported - 40% more people are dying than normally, country-wide.
Some are covid. Others are various conditions that couldn't be treated because of hospitals overload.

We had lockdowns in spring, no excess deaths back then. Relatively normal summer. And now, back-to-school, back-to-work, new infections skyrocket and it's happening - people who could have lived, die.


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jimmy m
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08 Nov 2020, 11:00 am

Need Permission to Leave Your Home

In Greece, you need permission to leave your home. Under a second nationwide coronavirus lockdown in Greece, people will need to text authorities if they want to leave their homes. People will only be allowed to leave their homes for work, physical exercise or medical reasons, and only after sending a text message to authorities. In the texts to the five-digit number, people will have to provide their name, address and the reason why they need to leave their home. When people venture out, they will be required to carry identification and a form detailing their reason for leaving home if they aren't able to text.

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Source: Coronavirus lockdown in Greece requires people to text authorities before leaving home


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jimmy m
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08 Nov 2020, 8:38 pm

Well I guess I do not need permission to leave my home. We are not in lockdown at least not yet. So today I went to town, swam 20 lapse at the YMCA, ate (outside) at a fine dining restaurant. The weather was warm 75 deg F. Then I went to the theater and watched a movie.

It was a strange film. I might use the word demented. They placed a non-verbal autistic boy in the middle of a scary monster movie. A good way of producing a meltdown in a young child. The film was called "Come Play". Don't see it.

Up and about.
Walking in the shadow of death.
Just me and my N95.


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08 Nov 2020, 10:48 pm

^^ A good reminder that this is worldwide when it feels like it's only your own government imposing lockdowns.