Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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Progress of COVID Inoculations

According to the coronavirus vaccine tracker, the U.S. has now administered 24.48 million vaccine doses with around 7.3% of the U.S. population vaccinated (with at least one dose).

Globally 71.36 million vaccinate doses have been given with the U.S., China and U.K. in the top three positions.

Source: COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker

I received a newsletter from a travel adviser yesterday. Since I went on a cruise just before the pandemic struck, the VacationsToGo.com thought I might be interested in the current status from a cruise line perspective. Having said that I thought the information was worth sharing:

According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, new cases of COVID-19 reached an all-time peak in the U.S. on January 11 and have plunged since then.

As seen on Worldometers.info, the 7-day moving average of new cases in the US was 254,862 on January 11 and has since fallen by 31% to 175,021 as of January 25.

Similarly, the 7-day moving average of new cases in Canada peaked on January 9 at 8,885 and has fallen 39% to 5,420 as of January 25.

It's important to recognize that the peak and decline happened before the rollout of vaccines had any significant impact. With multiple vaccines now approved and the delivery of vaccinations expected to accelerate, perhaps the battle against COVID-19 has reached the turning point.

New mutations in COVID-19 have raised the possibility that vaccines may someday have to be tweaked to be effective against new strains, as flu shots are, but according to Anthony Fauci, America's chief medical adviser for Covid-19, "We don't need to do that right now."

The chief science advisor of Operation Warp Speed, the U.S. government's expedited search for development and delivery of a vaccine, has said that every American who wants a vaccine will be able to get one by June. Health officials in Canada have said that all Canadians who want a vaccine will receive one by September. Even if those dates slip a bit due to vaccine delivery glitches, the end of the tunnel is in sight.

The decline is partially why certain locales are easing restrictions. Now the question is do the variants slow, stop, or even reverse the natural+vaccine caused declines. Antidotal observations indicate to me that fears of widespread anti-vaxx skepticism were significantly overblown. The few reported incidents of people going into shock and reported incidents of people becoming quite sick after the second dose has not dampened the seeming desperation of people to get it.




New Zealand's borders may stay shut for most of the year, PM Ardern says

jimmy m. got his shot today.

It was Moderna vaccine, first shot!!

With all the hype I have been hearing over the past several months, I was expecting that an old geezer like me might experience some problems.

In all the many vaccine shots I had over my lifetime, this has got to be the least painful shot I ever received. I didn't feel anything. After the 15 minute observation period following the shot and I went back to the car, I remarked to my wife, I didn't feel a thing. I told her that perhaps we should remove the bandage on my arm and check to make sure there was even evidence of a shot. I suspect that they may have been reducing the size of the needle, so maybe that would account for it.

It is over an hour since the shot, and still no reaction. If I feel or experience anything within the next day, I will report back here.

From everything that I read, it is the second shot that may produce adverse reactions. So I will let you know in around 3 week what the results are after I receive the second shot. I heard that older people are less affected by the adverse reactions to the shots anyways. So the adverse reactions may be more localized to the younger crowd.

N95 Face Masks

A health expert from Harvard made his case Tuesday that everyone in the U.S. should wear N95 face masks in order to slow the spread of COVID-19.

Joseph G. Allen, the director of the Healthy Buildings program at the university, penned an op-ed in the Washington Post and said there’s "no reason any essential worker—and really, everyone in the country – should go without masks that filter 95%."

Allen wrote that if two people wore N95s it would result in a "greater than 99% reduction in exposure."

"Think about that for a minute. We could reduce exposure by 99 percent for what should be $1 a mask. (Prices are higher now because of the failure to produce an adequate supply.) Throw in better ventilation and some distance between people, and you have hospital-grade protections," he wrote.

Source: Harvard health expert makes case for everyone to wear N95 masks

Congratulations

Thanks!

Progress of COVID Inoculations

According to the coronavirus vaccine tracker, the U.S. has now administered 25.65 million vaccine doses with around 7.7% of the U.S. population vaccinated (with at least one dose).

Globally 82.51 million vaccinate doses have been given with the U.S., China and U.K. in the top three positions. [The E.U. and also the individuals countries that make up the E.U are listed in the same table. Sort of redundant. In comparing vaccine inoculations I choose to compare individual countries.]

Source: COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker

N95 Face Mask

Back in March 2020 on a CBS interview, this is what Anthony S. Fauci said:
"Right now in the United States, people should not be walking around with a mask."
The Interviewer said: "You're really sure. Because people are listening really closely to this."
Then Fauci said, "Right now people should not be walking around with a mask. When you are in the middle of an outbreak wearing a mask, it might make people feel better. It might even block a droplet but it is not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is."

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Then by 7 July 2020 he changed his recommendation to "Everyone needs to wear masks in public."

But the mask that he recommended people wear were CLOTH face mask. [These single layered mask offer minimal protection against the virus.]

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On 25 January 2021, Fauci is recommending people double masks.

Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, touted double-masking during a Monday appearance on the “Today” show, saying two layers “just makes common sense that it likely would be more effective.”

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So Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and one of the lead authorities on combating the coronavirus IMHO lacks any credibility on his directives for wearing face masks.

Wearing a proper face mask, an N95 or better facemask in indoor public spaces, could quickly bring this pandemic under control. jimmy m. has said this from the very beginning. On 15 February 2020 [page 22 of this thread], I recommended the following:

My advice on facemask hasn't changed over the course of this pandemic. What has changed is that the medical community is slowly beginning to admit the importance of wearing effective N95 facemasks.

According to a recent Washington Post article:

As with other parts of the pandemic response, the United States lags behind other parts of the world when it comes to masks. Several Asian countries, including Singapore and South Korea, have mass-produced high-quality masks to send directly to residents. In recent weeks, European countries have begun mandating medical-grade masks in public settings as the virus strain first identified in the United Kingdom threatens to ravage communities. British scientists estimate it could be as much as 70 percent more transmissible.

Some public health experts said the federal government should have prioritized certifying or manufacturing better masks earlier so Americans do not have to fend for themselves to avoid counterfeits or upgrade their own.

Abraar Karan, a physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School has, since last spring, called on government and industrial leaders to mass-produce comfortable, effective masks. He said the country could have avoided its current situation, with Americans learning how to better protect themselves largely alone.

“This seems just like the rest of our covid tragedy: We just don’t have answers, we just put out fires constantly, and we are asking people to do things on their own,” Karan said. “You’ve always needed better masks. We needed better masks from the start.”

Linsey Marr, a Virginia Tech engineering professor who has researched mask effectiveness, said the public has better tools to reduce viral loads getting into the air and into bodies.

Sources:
* Anthony Fauci says wear masks to limit surging coronavirus cases
* Time to double or upgrade masks as coronavirus variants emerge, experts say

Well I promised everyone a status report.
I was vaccinated yesterday with the Moderna Vaccine (first dose).
I didn't even feel them prick me with the needle. They must have used some new type of microscopic needle.
When I got to the car I told my wife I didn't feel a thing.
When we got home I said let us take the bandage off and see. She declined.
Later that afternoon I removed the bandage. There wasn't even a speck of blood on the bandage. I showed my wife. She said you know what that means - "You're bloodless!"
Well a day has past. My arm where they gave me the shot was a little tender. I couldn't sleep on that side during the night.
But that was all.
I understand the second shot might be significantly more intense. So we will see.

How many will die from the virus in the USA?
Anywhere between 1 million to 2 million Americans will die from the virus.
Americans must fear the virus and wake up to the fact that it is deadly and it is killing lots of people.

How many people will die from the virus globally?
10 million+ will die from this virus, it is hard to keep track of all the people that will die from the virus in third world countries with minimal health care available.

I have had the Corona Virus and luckily I survived it.
It feels like you are dying, it is worse than any flu that I have had in my life.
Older people and sick people are more likely to die from this virus.

Progress of COVID Inoculations

According to the coronavirus vaccine tracker, the U.S. has now administered 27.30 million vaccine doses with around 8.2% of the U.S. population vaccinated (with at least one dose).

Globally 86.45 million vaccinate doses have been given with the U.S., China and U.K. in the top three positions. [The E.U. and also the individuals countries that make up the E.U are listed in the same table. Sort of redundant. In comparing vaccine inoculations I choose to compare individual countries.]

Source: COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker

So when did you contract the virus? Did you go to the hospital? What were your symptoms? How long were you laid up? How did you treat the condition when you contracted it? Did you suffer any permanent damage and if so what?

I received a COVID vaccine (Moderna) two days ago. Nothing new to report. Just a mild sore arm where the shot was administered. In general, getting the shot was well organized. I had to preregister in advance. I had a date and time to show up. I arrived 30 minutes early and they took me right in. First step was a desk as you walk in to make sure your name was on the list. Next stop was a registration desk where they check your driver's license and your health insurance cards. Then you sit in a chair waiting your turn for the shot. Then a nurse administered a painless shot in the arm - the opposite from my predominant hand - the hand I use to write with. Then a bandage is applied and I was given a health card with my next appointment date (for shot #2). Then I was given a timer and went to a waiting area for 15 minutes of observation to make sure I suffered no adverse reactions. And then I was free to go. Very simple, very well organized, very painless.

I read an article today from Josh Bloom who lives in New York City. He described his experience with getting the vaccine. He interjected a little bit of humor into the telling. So anyone who has not gotten their shot yet, might like to read his account. My COVID Vaccine Trip Report: Bravo, Weill Cornell!

In my State, they currently are giving shots to anyone 70 and older. Since I am 72, I qualify. My wife is a few months shy of being 70 years old. My state has standby lists. If someone has an appointment and they don't show; rather than toss the vaccine in the trash, they go to the standby lists and call someone from this list. They have 30 minutes to get to the immunization site.

So yesterday, we had around 2-3 inches of snow. I woke up in the morning and thought I wonder if my county has a standby list. I called the Health Department and asked how I would go about getting my wife on the standby list. The man I spoke with said "You just did." He asked for her name and info which I provided and now she is on standby. Kind of like being on a standby list for an airline flight.

The Lethality of the U.K. Variant

There are 3 main variants of the Coronavirus. These are called the U.K. variant, the South African variant and the Brazilian variant. They call these variants "variants of concern" (VOC). As time progresses, I am sure other variants will make their presence known. One of the first variants to capture the attention of the medical community was the U.K. variant otherwise called B.1.1.7. It spread rapidly in the U.K. and was determined to be highly infectious. But one of the questions that was asked was "Is it more deadly?" Well, some preliminary studies seemed to point in that direction.

From research by The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), when adjusted for age, gender, co-morbidities, and geographic location, the B.1.1.7 virus was 35% more likely to result in death.

From research by The Imperial College of London, they found that B.1.1.7 was 29 to 35% more likely to result in death than “normal” COVID-19.

From research by Public Health England, they found an approximate 28% increase in death.

Of course this is very preliminary information. This variant is still very new and has produced very few deaths in comparison to that produced by the original non-mutated COVID-19 virus.

Source with all the details: Is COVID Variant B.1.1.7 More Lethal?

Herd Immunity

I read a very pessimistic report about herd immunity by Chuck Dinerstein this morning.
Here is a link: Tracking The Vaccinations: Week 2

What percentage of the population needs to get vaccinated to have herd immunity to COVID-19?

Experts do not yet know what percentage of people would need to get vaccinated to achieve herd immunity to COVID-19. But that doesn't mean that the so called experts aren't throwing around SWAGs (scientific wild-ass guesses). Many experts in the medical community initially estimated the threshold for herd immunity to be in the 60% to 70% range.

Now in the real world, nothing is every frozen in time. There are multitudes of variable to be accounted for in the analysis. That is one of the reasons why the analysis more likely will be wrong. So in reviewing Dinerstein's article, this is my non-expert review.

First Herd Immunity is achieve by combining several factors. Some people in the population already have a natural immunity. Maybe they brushed up against SARS and built up an immunity years ago. Then you have the individuals that became infected with COVID19 and survived. They have a measure of immunity. Then you have the individuals that are being vaccinated for the virus. So herd immunity is a summation:

Herd Immunity = Natural Immunity + Immunity from Contracting Virus + Vaccine Immunity

So if you look at vaccine immunity for example this is not a static number. I was vaccinated 2 days ago. Right after being vaccinated with my first dose of the Moderna vaccine I had essentially 0% vaccine immunity. Two weeks from now, I will have around 50% vaccine immunity. Then when I receive my second dose I will still be around 50% of vaccine immunity. But my immunity will climb so that two weeks after my second shot I will be around 95% immunity.

So herd immunity is like a moving target. So in reviewing Dinerstein pessimistic article, this is what I see.
1. He only focuses on vaccine immunity and does not integrate the sums of the three types of immunity. Therefore he comes up to the conclusion that it will be many years before herd immunity is achieved.
2. He provides a graph of immunized by state. But the graph only focuses on those individuals that have received both doses. So at present his graph shows California as only 0.86%. This is a little misleading because many individuals in California have already received their first dose of the vaccine. I read an article a couple weeks ago that said 1/3 of the individuals in Los Angeles have been infected with the coronavirus. That means there is a great amount of herd immunity build up within the city already and adding the immunity gained by the first inoculation of the vaccine combined with those that received the second shot of the innoculation means that the city is most likely at the 40% mark for herd immunization at present.