Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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My daughter just bought the last wipes in the Target near her in Northern Cali.I had just ordered a giant jug of Lysol from Walmart a few days ago,not because of corona,I ran out.Just checked to see if it is still in stock,it’s not.

Yes, it seems to be acting as a focus for a lot of the fear ( and the often associated rage ) caused by the huge increases in inequality and systematic exclusion, divisions and conflicts created and/or encouraged by powerful ( financial ) interests in recent years.

A bit like Brexit acted as a flash point in the UK. But whereas that could/can only kill indirectly, through the future hardship it's likely to cause, this actually kills.

Really effective preventative strategies would, as I said several pages back, have involved years of funding better/cheaper/free health care and better nutritional policies, education, etc, etc, to increase resilience. Right now it's remarkable how this virus is making the extent of the current mess visible.

Definitely a bit biblical.

Rather good article, among others, at The Atlantic, about the testing shambles in the USA, which I'm astonished by. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... us/607597/ I don't think it can be just incompetency. There's political will at work here. Money to be made.

Last edited by ouinon2 on 07 Mar 2020, 12:31 am, edited 2 times in total.

Maybe you should buy an Allicine-supplement. Even though there is till insufficient research it might have some anti-viral properties.

I do have lots of garlic from the garden.And goldenseal and ginseng.No cases here where I live yet.

I'm not sure I ever said that? I did however quote a top microbiologist in Queensland Australia who used epidemiological data to predict around 50% of Australians will be infected and (as already been pointed out) that the virus will be with us forever like a number of other common flu viruses. The common flus annually kill those with immunodeficiencies, the very young and very old.

I am however confused by the discrepancy in the fatality statistics and the infection data which suggests more than one strain and at least one strain that appears to act like the HIV virus in terms of the damage it causes to lung tissue (this includes young study hospital staff). While I respect your penchant for numbers/math ypu are neither a microbiologist, psychologist or an epidemiologist so please be careful not to come across as arrogant.

I put an order for toilet paper and hand sanitiser with Coles online shopping. After receiving a confirmation the items were ready to pick up I arrived to find there was nothing set aside for me and my money had been reimbursed back to my bank account.

I feel like I'm living in a war zone. Apparently there's a black market for toilet paper and hand sanitizer.

Oops, i meant could you edit your original post to remove the remnant quote tag? Or was it too late to do that? Thank you anyway!


It's not surprising in a society which has such an entrenched and normalised wage-slave culture, in which people have to carry on going to work when ill, ( either because they'll suffer financial hardship otherwise or because of workplace pressure ), can't easily work part time, and old people are put into "homes"/segregated or removed from wider society because most adults don't have time to look after them.

A society in which "not working" is, in itself, a "sign" of irrelevance, and means that you are of less value, whether unemployed or retired.

An example of the pressure to keep working when ill: a doctor who travelled back to Australia from the USA with a "sniffle" and treated 70 patients before seeking treatment and discovered he had corona-virus. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... g-patients A combination of the normalised working when ill ethos and the widespread modern lack of attention to health * , weird but not at all unusual in doctors.

* eg. how many people think that making symptoms disappear, with paracetomol/ibuprofen/aspirin and caffeine and/or patented/over the counter substances which reduce fever, dry up dribbles, dissolve congestion, relieve tiredness/exhaustion, kill pain, etc is the same as curing an illness. Very often all it's doing is stopping the body defending itself.

Regarding that last paragraph;
You are 100 per cent correct; years ago, a shift supervisor used to keep Alleve or aspirin on hand in case anyone wanted/needed to go home sick.

lol rofl

The doctor in question is in big trouble. He neglected to tell his colleagues he had been on a cruise in addition to flying from Denver Colorado back here to Melbourne feeling sick. He knew he was sick but chose to neither test himself or put himself in quarantine.

If any of his 70 patients die he may be up for manslaughter.

Vinegar and salt water are great antiseptics. Washing hands with liquid soap and water is sufficient. Pharm companies are cashing in, there are cheaper, effective alternatives to "sanitising gels"
Sadly we need to touch other people less.

In Italy some men wanted to almost beat up a chinese woman , furious over corona

WrestleMania might be canned for first time in 35 yrs , i dont think Vince want to risk this : 60-80k+ people in an arena , from all over the world

I've just been looking at the World Health Organisation's Coronavirus Situation Reports from 18 February until yesterday, 6 March, and collecting the daily "deaths outside China" numbers.

The number of diagnosed coronavirus deaths *outside* China went from a total of 8 on the 20 February to 335 yesterday, 6 March, ie over the last 17 days.

I then found the "doubling rate", by looking at how long it took that first figure to double, and to double again, and again, etc. Over the last 17 days it has doubled 5 times, almost exactly every 3 days or so.

I then extended that "3 day" doubling rate, ( which is apparently called a geometric progression, for which there is a formula but I don't understand it so I worked it out "by hand"; mathematicians please feel free to check my results; I may be wildly out ), for another 57 days, doubling another 19 times, to the 3 May ...

... and it seems that if the virus continues to kill at the same rate as it has done over the last 17 days, ie if countries ( outside China ) fail to organise and impose much more effective testing, screening, containment and treatment measures than they have so far, there could theoretically be 174 million dead by 3 May.

Please refer to the "grain of rice on a chess board" phenomenon if in doubt that this kind of growth is possible. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth

ie it appears, if my calculations are correct, that unless we in the non-Chinese
( and perhaps non-South Korean ) world don't get a grip, don't pay some serious attention to this, that there'll be an awful lot of deaths, because that's just to the beginning of May, and there won't be a vaccine until next year.

?

PS. I did start by looking at case numbers, but decided that these were so utterly unreliable, inconsistent etc that are nearly useless indicators.

Last edited by ouinon2 on 07 Mar 2020, 8:59 am, edited 2 times in total.

How to make your own hand sanitizer - The Video

Coronavirus causes hand sanitizer shortage.

Current number of deaths is N0 = 3,524. Number of deaths d days later will be

N(d) = N0 * 2^(d/3)

Solving for d we get:

d = 3 * log(N/N0) / log(2)

(result is the same whether natural or base-10 logorithm is used).

World population is 7.7e9, for half of the world population to get infected, it'll take

d = 3 * log(3.85e9/3524) / log(2) = 60.2

That is, in another 2 months, according to this naive formula, most of the world population will be infected. That's before the arrival of summer, which is typically taken as June 21.

Hopefully the situation won't be as bad. Two things: from all evidences, and despite all the outcry from WHO for caution, temperature does help. Today's temperature in Taipei is already 26C(max) 19C(min). Secondly, world economy does have a North-South bias. The Northern Hemisphere is comparatively more developed.

Still, the main question remains: do we want containment, or free-virus-for-all? If we want containment, then when will it break our bank, if it does break our bank? If all other countries had started as fast and as diligently as Taiwan, this virus would have been contained already. But, unfortunately, the world has been too complacent. So we are in hot water today.