RNC and DNC

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26 Jul 2016, 11:28 am

I agree with Kraftie. I don't think we can predict what will happen. I don't even think we can predict that it will be close. We could see a wild swing for either one of them.

So I'm currently working on something right now that does involve autism and cognition, but it also applies here.

If anyone is wondering why the never-Trumps are so solid in their conviction and the never-Hillaries are so solid in THEIR conviction, it's supposedly because of the below effect, which I personally believe in very much:

Cognitive Consequence of Forced Compliance by Festinger and Carlsmith

(it's 9 pages, but I think very illuminating reading- it explains why you can never convince someone they are wrong)

ASPartOfMe
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26 Jul 2016, 12:04 pm

SocOfAutism wrote:

Impressions so far:

ALL networks, including C-span, have piped in crowd noise and canned applause, which means it's not the networks or C-span, it's coming from the DNC feed itself. Disappointing.

Just like with the RNC, the networks keep cutting off the "little people" speakers, who are often the most interesting. Yesterday it was the legal and illegal immigrants. I had to jump around to find a live feed to watch them. I did not like the way that people kept not being clear about the distinction between legal and illegal immigrant or the circumstances that would lead them to choose to immigrant illegally. It would be helpful to both sides of the argument if they had.

With the booing and chanting- what did they expect Sanders to do? Could it be that a good number of these Sanders supporters haven't been watching the news for years and weren't familiar with him before this movement? Of course he conceded and of course he is supporting Clinton. He follows the rules and is a nice guy. That's his thing. He not all of a sudden going to say scr*w the rules I'm going to do something else because you guys want me instead of this other person.

I also think they have been making a mistake by running all the jokey Trump ads throughout the convention. I think it's taking away from their message in a couple of ways. For one, it's continually making the people there think about Trump instead of the democratic platform and Clinton/Kaine. For another, continued references to offensive things he's said and done desensitizes everyone to them. So then there is nothing else to dig up on him and when he drops any new gaffs you're like, oh, well, whatever. Whereas if something else said something terrible (ahem, Rubio, who started the "small hands" thing) everyone would be aghast.

I expect there should be a more respectful tone tonight, since it's Bill Clinton instead of Bernie.

IMHO if it was anybody but Trump considering he is really and indepentent and not a Democrat and considering the way he was treated and mocked by the party establishment if he endorsed Hillary at all it would have tepid not all in.

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Kraichgauer
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26 Jul 2016, 12:42 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:

Always remember: ELECTORAL VOTE.

Even if Trump happens to win the Popular Vote, that won't win him the election. He has to get 270 or so ELECTORAL VOTES in order to win.

This election could very well depend upon Democratic voter turnout in the states with the largest electoral votes.

But I still think Trump won't do well in all the states with the highest electoral votes.

The election is still far away. In actuality, I cannot predict a winner at this point. Too many variables. Too many opportunities for both to screw up majorly.

I can't imagine Trump carrying any electoral votes either here on the west coast, or on the Northeast, let alone the popular vote.

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BaalChatzaf
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26 Jul 2016, 12:50 pm

Kraichgauer wrote:

kraftiekortie wrote:

I can't imagine Trump carrying any electoral votes either here on the west coast, or on the Northeast, let alone the popular vote.

In 1948 the polls predicted Dewey would win. Guess what? He didn't.

https://www.google.com/search?q=image+o ... DPUQsAQIHg

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26 Jul 2016, 12:56 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:

If Trump did get the plurality in popular votes than the former Ms. Rodham cannot claim a mandate.

Queue up a Wagnerian Theme: The Ride of the Cronies///

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26 Jul 2016, 12:59 pm

BaalChatzaf wrote:

Kraichgauer wrote:

kraftiekortie wrote:

I can't imagine Trump carrying any electoral votes either here on the west coast, or on the Northeast, let alone the popular vote.

In 1948 the polls predicted Dewey would win. Guess what? He didn't.

https://www.google.com/search?q=image+o ... DPUQsAQIHg

As I understand that situation, it was considered such a forgone conclusion of a Dewey victory that polls simply ceased to gauge American opinion. Had they continued their work, they'd have found Truman was slowly but surely steaming ahead.

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26 Jul 2016, 1:16 pm

It doesn't really matter if Trump loses in the states he is expected to lose badly, California he could lose by 30%(I don't believe he will) but he still win the electoral vote and Trump's support I think is a lot more broadly distributed whereas the anti-Trump voters are pretty geographically concentrated. This election will be decided in the midwest, we might know the winner before California is even finished voting probably. Trump will be stronger in the northeast than the typical Republican. People say Trump can't win without X amount of support from minorities but that's not true if he increases his share of the white vote and if threat trend follows nationally then it will put states in play you wouldn't expect. I don't think minorities hate Trump nearly as much as the pundits would like you to believe, he's running ahead of Romney/McCain with Hispanics and couldn't do any worse they did with blacks. Trump doesn't need more of the vote to drastically change the outlook of this election. Anybody saying Trump can't win simply doesn't know what they are talking about, I've been saying this the entire time. THE RUST BELT DECIDES THE ELECTION! And that's not the only path either!

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26 Jul 2016, 1:29 pm

roll call vote canceled at the DNC, don't think Bernie supporters are going to be too happy!

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26 Jul 2016, 1:33 pm

Jacoby wrote:

Even if Trump can win with just the white vote, I would think that would only divide America even more, as it demonstrates his lack of concern with courting non-white voters. So far, I've seen little interest on his part to attract minorities, except to boast, "Blacks Love me," or "Hispanics Love me." Especially his troubling support from white supremacists, which he disavows only when pressed, does little to attract blacks, Latinos, and others.

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26 Jul 2016, 1:49 pm

Kraichgauer wrote:

Jacoby wrote:

You didn't watch the convention then or have a grasp of what is important to minority voters, they do not like the corporatist oligarchy that has taken control of the party. I think Trump is going to win in a landslide, Hillary should be very nervous! There are still more shoes to drop for Hillary and these emails, there is still time to dump Hillary as the nominee but not much! Let the delegates vote their conscious!

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26 Jul 2016, 1:59 pm

Of course you think Trump's going to win by a landslide; you like the man so much!

I think you're right; the election will be decided in the Rust Belt, probably. Ohio, Pennsylvania especially.

Florida has lots of conservative Hispanics/Cuban exiles who are both conservative and anti-progressive. These are the Cruz people. And Texas has a high population of Hispanics, too. Many of them migrated across the Mexican border. Do you think they'd like the fact that Trump will build a wall to keep out their family members?

There will also be a couple of conservative Western states who might not like Trump because of his seeming New Yorkism, and because he's not a "true conservative."

We shall see what the future holds. Both are very, very capable of putting their foot in their mouths.

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26 Jul 2016, 2:10 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:

I think that is a lot of wishful thinking and wrongly considering Hispanics one monolithic voting bloc, Cubans are not Mexicans and neither are Puerto Ricans! Multigeneration Tejanos are not the same as illegal immigrants! Mexicans are not the same as Guatemalans/Salvadorians! A lot of people find it really offensive to even be grouped together like that, hispanic is a totally made up "race"! Hillary has zero chance in Texas or Arizona, people actually have a personal stake in securing our border here. Again, it's all about the rust belt.

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26 Jul 2016, 2:43 pm

Jacoby wrote:

Kraichgauer wrote:

Jacoby wrote:

Which convention? The Republican? I saw some token minorities there, including a Muslim leading a prayer who got shouted at by the peanut gallery simply for being a Muslim.
As for dumping Clinton - there's no chance for that, as that ship already sailed, as Bernie endorsed her last night.

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26 Jul 2016, 10:22 pm

This just in: Trump whines about a hotel being too hot, he threatens not to pay the bill.

I know Trump supporters will claim this is "nonsense" and "irrelevant" and "media smear' (or whatever else). But the fact that a presidential nominee is this whiny.. isnt a good sign.

I can picture it now: Trump talking to other country leaders, they disagree with him. Then he goes to Twitter and whines, he speaks to the press and whines. The leaders would just laugh and leave I bet.

This is NOT how a potential leader should act.

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26 Jul 2016, 10:24 pm

Earthbound wrote:

It's a small wonder that Bill Maher calls Trump a whiney little b***h!

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27 Jul 2016, 12:13 am

Earthbound wrote:

I can envision him launching nukes in a flash of anger. I have never felt that way about any presidential candidate. Back in the day many feared Ronnie "Raygun" doing that but I always have and will think that idea ludicrous.

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