Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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Those infected with the coronavirus in the U.S. now exceed 1,000. It is present in 38 states.

I sort of expected this. The virus was slowly spreading throughout the U.S. but because the test kits were not out there, the actual numbers were essentially invisible. Now that the test kits have become available, they will become visible. The real numbers and the spread will become self evident. We will see an initial surge in the numbers and then they will somewhat level off in a few weeks into a linear trend.

At this point there are several hot spots - areas where the virus is endemic within small communities. At the moment these are within California, Washington State, and New York. New Rochelle in New York at this point is probably the largest cluster in the U.S. of these cases.

Coronavirus cases in US exceed 1,000, as Michigan sees its first cases

The most vulnerable are the aged and those with preexisting conditions that make their immune system weak. So if a group of the most vulnerable individuals are clustered together, they can quickly evolve into an influenza cluster. This will occur in nursing homes. I suspect that is what created the cluster in Washington State. They can occur in cruise ships. I suspect that the clusters in California may have originated there. They can occur in very tight knit communities with close interactions. I suspect that the New York cluster originated in the Jewish community in New Rochelle. Anyways that is just an opinion.

In the region where I live, we also have some tight knit clusters. They are Amish and Mennonites. They are also vulnerable as a potential cluster. But they are a hardy people and work outside in the sunlight in manual labor. And that will make them less vulnerable IMHO.

I noticed yesterday, that the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) was beginning to isolate their patients in nursing homes. They are stopping visitations and also new admissions at its 134 nursing homes to protect two of its most susceptible patient populations: nursing home residents and spinal-cord injury patients. The nursing homes are home to more than 41,000 veterans across the country. I see this as a good move. It controls the spread to the most vulnerable.

The World Health Organization (WHO) put together a plan called Home care for patients with suspected novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection presenting with mild symptoms, and management of their contacts. It is essentially a guideline document for sheltering in place. Basically it is "Home care for patients with suspected COVID-19 infection who present with mild symptoms". I had read through their recommendations and two stood out. The first two read:

• Place the patient in a well-ventilated single room (i.e., with open windows and an open door).
• Limit the movement of the patient in the house and minimize shared space. Ensure that shared spaces (e.g., kitchen, bathroom) are well ventilated (e.g., keep windows open).

These recommendations seemed interesting. If you live in a cold region, obviously opening the windows when there is snow on the ground doesn't seem wise. But there are many regions where one can open the windows this time of year. Most of us live indoors. We work indoors and after work we return to our homes and stay and sleep indoors. Many modern building do not even have windows that can be opened, that will allow fresh air in.

So why would opening the windows make sense? It is because the air is fresh. It has a very low viral load. The air has been purified by the sun which has killed off many of the viruses.

Sunlight contains a wide spectrum of different wavelengths including infrared, visible light and ultra violet light. Far ultraviolet light (UVC) can damage and destroy viruses and bacteria. But this form of light is filter out by the atmosphere.

Everyone is exposed to UV radiation from the sun. The UV region covers the wavelength range 100-400 nm and is divided into three bands:

UVA (315-400 nm)
UVB (280-315 nm)
UVC (100-280 nm).

As sunlight passes through the atmosphere, all UVC and approximately 90% of UVB radiation is absorbed by ozone, water vapour, oxygen and carbon dioxide. UVA radiation is less affected by the atmosphere. Therefore, the UV radiation reaching the Earth’s surface is largely composed of UVA with a small UVB component.

IMHO it is probably the UVB component that helps make the air fresh.

So, the data is available here: https://data.humdata.org/dataset/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-cases

I did some ranking analysis, by the number of cases. What I have found out is, while countries like US, UK, Italy, Germany, France, Iran, Korea have been climbing up in this last week, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Taiwan (and to a lesser degree, Japan) have been ramping down, in their rankings.

I mean, Thailand. One can understand the case of Taiwan, because of intense effort from the government, because of all the high-tech approaches used. But, Thailand? Or Vietnam? What this is telling us is: warm weather matters. Warm weather helps. Big time.

Unfortunately, warm weather won't arrive for a while, for US or for European countries. It was just reported today that Merkel Says Two-Thirds of Germans Could Become Infected, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856.

The table has turned around 180 degrees. It's now US and European countries the main exporters of cases. In comparison, East Asia is mostly under control. Very few new cases from China, even South Korea. East Asia will be blaming US and European countries for new cases. The Taiwan government is preparing for the onslaught of the "Second Wave" of the virus, coming from Western countries. It's going to be a humbling experience for Western countries. I think people will forever remember the video clip below. The West has cooked up lies about ineffectiveness of wearing masks. And now, it is paying a heavy price, with its people's lives, with its economy paralyzed, with its schools closed. Did I mention that Taiwan has never shut down one single school so far? Sure, Taiwan may not do well with the onslaught of the second wave, but it's hard to defend itself when the West is so infantile in handling this epidemic. Anyway, warm weather helps. South America? They will be likely to be the first guinea pigs for vaccines. By the time November arrives, we should have already learned which vaccines are safe and effective. We will also have quick and cheap COVID-19 tests, so next winter will be much easier in the Northern Hemisphere. Who would have thought a virus is worse than 9-11?

European people should pause and think: why containment can be done in East Asia, but not in Europe? How come East Asia (including China) has been successful, whereas Europe is failing big time? What makes the difference? Be humble, and acknowledge your mistakes. Many of the people recovered from the virus will have permanent damage to their lungs. The healthcare cost will be higher there than the social cost of handling dead people.

World Health Organization declares the coronavirus outbreak a global pandemic

I was at a big box store (Sam's Club). There wasn't any toilet paper, or hand sanitizer. The shelves were stripped bare. There was very little paper towels, maybe none actually. They had a good stock of surgical gloves. Their aisle of detergents, cleaners, disinfectants were down about 75 percent.

I was at Kroger's grocery store. The amount of toilet paper they had out was about 20 percent of normal. So the shelves were partly bare. They were filling much of the vacant space with disposable diapers. They seemed to have plenty of food.

I expect as the buying and stockpiling surge comes to an end shortly, many of these items will make their way back onto the shelves. When the government proclaimed it was time to prepare, people took that really seriously and went on a shopping binge.

I guess there is one bright spot. Gasoline prices are the lowest they have been in years. From a high in May 2011, they have fallen 57%.

You are right about the stores; I went to Walmart 2 mornings in a row.
The first day,
No toilet paper, you have to go to the desk and you get ONE package.
Next day, NO paper towels, same deal.
AND absolutely NO Clorox spray cleaner....sold out.

Having to deal with the sudden changes in my shopping routine, work routine, and the effects on my family are causing me too much anxiety! I miss stability!

Hear, hear!

Starting Friday, Trump has banned all travel and imports from Europe for 30 days, the UK excepted. The only exception will be Americans who have been properly screened.

Wow! I've never watched or read a Trump speech in my life, but that was incredible!

(( Sending love to USA ))

WTF

I just heard Tom Hanks has it? Is this true?

Also the NBA suspended their season?