Face mask myths busted

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What something else? You see clearly an inflection point after masks were required after March 18 (the mask movement actually started on March 14). My plot was done with April 4 data. Trace back about two weeks (around day 9, or March 21), and you see the slope change on the semilog plot, for Czech Republic. Merely one week after the mask movements started, you see the effect.

You conveniently ignore China's plot where there is logarithmic increase in cases regardless of mandatory use of facemasks. You are falling for the classic attribute error of trying to show causality based on correlation. The graphs hide covariance and external factors.

It's nice that during the crisis there is the great face mask controversy as a source of entertainment. Those obsessively posting extensive articles lobbying for and against mask wearing to an audience of about 35 people.

Exponential increase, not logorithmic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Hubei#Disclosure
... On January 22, Wuhan was still "an open city" to the virus outbreak where most people did not wear a mask,

It is so interesting that you always want to re-write history, just like the Chinese government. People in Wuhan were not wearing masks. That day, there were already 526 cases. Matter of fact, read this:

... On January 19, despite the virus outbreak, over 40,000 Wuhan families joined an annual potluck banquet which was a community tradition observed for over two decades to celebrate the Kitchen God Festival. A community leader told The Beijing News that "everything is normal now," when asked about the virus outbreak. ...

Nope, people definitely were not wearing masks. Instead, they were having 40,000-people potluck banquet.

People only came to realize that this thing was serious, when Wuhan was locked down on January 23. If you want to say the Chinese did wear mask, they started to do so only after January 23, which is day 5 on my plot. On day 10 in the plot, you already started to see an inflection point: the slope of the curve started to decline. It was not an exponential growth anymore. Barely 10 days, and China went out of exponential growth. Starting February 1st (day 14), the doubling period kept climbing up. In 20 days, the situation was totally under control. Sadly, the same cannot be said about Italy, Spain, UK, and US.

Armed with high tech, and after watching China's case, it took Korea only 3 days to get out of exponential growth, and about 9 days to flatten the curve.

So, to answer your question again, why did China go through its initial exponential growth? And the answer again is: because they did not wear masks.

Is that clear, now?

No there's still covariance that you missing in your models. China's testing was suspect given testkits from China are faulty. The countries that not growing infection- (Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and Japan) forced their population to do mandatory testing and heavy policing. In contrast countries with higher rates of infection like Italy and the US are not testing enough,

You can never know the amount of viruses found in coughs/sneezes/breathes in a confined area (elevator, small office...etc), the above video shows how the virus may be possibly transmitted via flying aerosols in confined areas (in case there's enough amount of viral material) - also the needed amount of viral material to get infected depends largely on the host's immunity. You can't dismiss the possibility while the virus is still that new , no one is saying that touching isn't the main route.

So better to be safe than sorry, wear the mask.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

And here we go.

And that from exhaled breath only, not from coughs.

I know all that. But the fact is plenty of close relatives taking care of COVID-19 patients at home, don't get infected. The R0 of COVID-19 is around 3. So, we should be realistic about how dangerous inhalation truly is. Virus alone doesn't cause illness. It needs to come in sufficient number.

I am not going stop people if they want to be extra careful. That's fine. But the problem with the general public's misconception out there that this virus mainly propagates through air, THAT is what is causing problems.

Read this:

Louisiana church holds services, defying coronavirus stay-at-home order
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-church/louisiana-church-holds-services-defying-coronavirus-stay-at-home-order-idUSKBN21N0UU

THAT is the problem. By talking so much about the filtering power issue of masks, people start to think that this virus propagates through the air. And guess what happens next? Yep, they think they are safe if they keep social distance.

They are dead wrong. And for people like those ones, death often becomes a reality.

Because, nowhere in the news, you read about people talking about keeping their hands clean, not touching spots or objects that other people might touch, not sit on chairs/benches that other might have used, not touching door handles or handrails. People just don't think about those things, when they have in mind that this virus goes through the air.

Lifeguards and grocery store workers have been falling ill left and right in California. That was why beaches and even small neighborhood parks have been closed and retail store worker must now wear masks. Think about lifeguards, they work in open air, they keep their social distance. How in the world do they even get infected? That's right, through their fingers touching their face.

From the value of R0~3 we KNOW transmission from the air is not the primary route. Not even remotely close.

Even in Taiwan, where everyone wears a mask in public transportation. Look at what happened this weekend:



Many people didn't even wear a mask in this southern tourist town (Kenting), for a holiday. WHY? Because they believed they were outdoors, in open air, hence safe from the "airborne" virus.

Do you guys see the problem? EVERYONE THINKS THAT THIS VIRUS PROPAGATES THROUGH THE AIR. And that is the problem. They forget about their fingers.

BY PERPETUATING THE IDEA THAT MASKS ARE ALL ABOUT FILTERING THE VIRUS OUT, WE ARE CREATING PROBLEMS.

Just how dangerous your fingers are? We know from many stories of people getting COVID-19 just because they touched elevator buttons that were touched by an person suffering from COVID-19, same with touching bus hand rails. You only need to touch once, and then when you touch your face, you are infected. Just one slight slip of mind, and you are infected. That's the true purpose of masks. Anybody that has truly worn a mask a few days will tell you, they feel more relaxed, because they don't need to worry so much anymore about their fingers touching their face. It is extremely stressful when you don't have a mask: you are bound to touch your face at some point.

I never touch my face in public, so do most people. It's called self-discipline.

You both should wear boxing gloves so that you won't touch your face and more importantly you won't be able to type.

Yes, most people say they don't touch their face, like all the ones in this video. Yeah yeah yeah, we all know it's much easier to lie than not to touch your face.



And here is Donald Trump.

Trump claims he hasn't touched his face in 'weeks.' Photos prove that's a lie.
https://mashable.com/article/donald-trump-coronavirus-hasnt-touched-face-weeks/




How often does a person touch their own face in an hour? The answer is 16 times, according to a research study.

A study quantifying the hand-to-face contact rate and its potential application to predicting respiratory tract infection.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18357546
... A substantial portion of human respiratory tract infection is thought to be transmitted via contaminated hand contact with the mouth, eyes, and/or nostrils. Thus, a key risk factor for infection transmission should be the rate of hand contact with these areas termed target facial membranes. A study was conducted in which 10 subjects were each videotaped for 3 hr while performing office-type work in isolation from other persons. The number of contacts to the eyes, nostrils, and lips was scored during subsequent viewing of the tapes. The total contacts per subject had sample mean x = 47 and sample standard deviation s = 34. The average total contact rate per hour was 15.7. ...

In this video a Nasa scientist films himself trying not to touch his face over a 3 hour period and fails epically .

LOL! facemasks are incredibly itchy to wear (I should know since I used to wear a facemask in my job as a microbiologist for about 20 years) so it takes some effort not to adjust the mask while wearing it. The moment you do you are touching it.

People with dermatological or sensitive skin may also react to wearing fabric on their faces (I certainly do)

facemasks cover half your face so you still touch your upper part of your face, rub your eyes, sweaty forehead, scratch your head.

I'll be here on this forum for a long long long time so get used to it........

Los Angeles mandates face coverings

Israeli Health Ministry readying orders requiring masks be worn in public

Now there's going to be a huge run on fabric, scarves, bandannas and such. Will supply be able to keep up with demand?