The funny thing is, the ALP had stopped falling in the polls and was looking at a respectable two-party-preferred vote of 52-48.
People blame the government up until election time, when they suddenly remember that it could be worse ... the Opposition could be elected into government. Abbot may be a colourful Opposition leader - and effective at opposing everything and using his stranglehold in the Senate to stop the ALP from getting key legislation through - but he is very conservative and voters can still remember the last conservative government with its WorkChoices and similar pro-business, anti-consumer, anti-environment, anti-employee policies.
I don't think the ALP would have lost under Rudd, and I wish the super-profits tax would go through, but I also expected Rudd eventually to hand over to Gillard. It just happened sooner than I expected. She was always the clear successor in waiting, and he made the fatal mistake of distrusting Gillard, which provoked her challenge. While I don't think she is the answer to every problem, she is a very competent politician and a dangerous one for either Abbott or Bishop - she shows them up.
Interesting times with an election due very soon. How will Gillard campaign? I suspect it will put Abbott on the back foot a little.
24 Jun 2010, 1:52 am
