Intrade bills itself as "The World's Leading Prediction Market" and it operates as a sort of stock exchange for predictions. People actually buy shares in whether or not an event will happen.
As you might guess, they have a robust market related to the elections. I thought it might be interesting to post their predictions and see how they pan-out.
Currently as of about noon central time, 11/06/12:
Quote:
Likelihood of Victory:
Barack Obama
72.1%
Today's Change: +3.9
Shares Traded: 3,609,123
Mitt Romney
28.3%
Today's Change: -4.6
Shares Traded: 3,015,884
Victory in Battleground States:
Barack Obama / Mitt Romney
72.1% Ohio 28.0%
62.0% Colorado 39.6%
34.5% Florida 65.6%
71.1% Iowa 29.0%
90.8% Michigan 9.3%
88.2% Nevada 12.6%
69.9% New Hampshire 30.2%
59.4% Virginia 40.7%
77.5% Wisconsin 22.6%
19.0% North Carolina 80.1%
83.0% Pennsylvania 17.1%
92.3% Minnesota 11.0%
As you can see, Intrade has a huge sample size with 6-7 million "shares" traded for and against...
It is not scientific like traditional polls claim to be. However, everyone in the intrade market has money riding on being right, so that helps to filter partisan bias, wishful thinking, and outright dishonesty...
It will be interesting to see how accurate it turns out to be.
Edit:
http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/
_________________
No man is free who is not master of himself.~Epictetus
06 Nov 2012, 1:02 pm
