link between valproate and autism

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http://www.everydayhealth.com/sanjay-gu ... d%3D356065

yea and next they will say my dead grandmothers flatulance causes autism.

when will they ever learn

The medical journal article is

Prenatal Valproate Exposure and Risk of Autism Spectrum Disorders and Childhood Autism

Jakob Christensen, PhD; Therese Koops Grønborg, MSc; Merete Juul Sørensen, PhD; Diana Schendel, PhD; Erik Thorlund Parner, PhD; Lars Henning Pedersen, PhD; Mogens Vestergaard, PhD

JAMA. 2013;309(16):1696-1703. doi:10.1001/jama.2013.2270.

432 children were born to women with epilepsy who were taking valproate, of these children 4.15 % are estimated to have autism (ASD). Which works out as 18 cases, the square root of 18 is 4.2

The background rate in the population is 1.53 % for ASD so I would expect in a group of 432 children to see 6.6 cases if they were random children. ESD on this value will be assumed to be very small.

So the difference between the two populations is 11.4 which is 2.7 times the ESD on the autism cases for children exposed to valoprate.

Thus I think that the higher rate of ASD in the population exposed to valproate is not due to chance alone.

I will repeat the calculations for "childhood autism"

Background rate is 0.48 % so a population of 432 random children should have 2.1 cases
If the valproate exposed children have a rate of 2.95 % then in 432 children be have 12.7 cases. ESD estimated to be 3.6

Again the difference looks real to me. But the paper should also consider does having a mother with epilepsy increase a child's chance of getting autism. I can see a differnece the the data presented in the paper between the general population and the children of women with epilepsy.

a 2.44 % rate in a population of 6152 children (mother with epilepsy no valproate exposure) would give 150 cases of ASD compared with a background of 94 cases for a random group of 6152 children. As the ESD on the 150 cases is 12.2 then the difference divided by the ESD is 4.6 so in terms of stats the difference between the "normal" population and the offpsring of women with epilepsy is more real.

I used the method of estimating a ESD based on count number which uses the Poisson distribution.

_________________
Health is a state of physical, mental and social wellbeing and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity I am not a jigsaw, I am a free man !

Diagnosed under the DSM5 rules with autism spectrum disorder, under DSM4 psychologist said would have been AS (299.80) but I suspect that I am somewhere between 299.80 and 299.00 (Autism) under DSM4.

However an association between two things does not prove that one thing causes the other

_________________
Health is a state of physical, mental and social wellbeing and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity I am not a jigsaw, I am a free man !

Diagnosed under the DSM5 rules with autism spectrum disorder, under DSM4 psychologist said would have been AS (299.80) but I suspect that I am somewhere between 299.80 and 299.00 (Autism) under DSM4.