Guy Who Predicted Financial Crash

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Make of it what you will. I consider his future predictions rather alarming considering his previous accuracy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0YTY5TWtmU

I consider Peter Schiff a rather astute economist.
And he does not have positive things to say for the near future economy.

How about instances where he predicted incorrectly. It is no fair just counting correct predictions. One must also count incorrect predictions.

ruveyn

I find that most of the predictions he got "wrong" are wrong only in their timing. So I don't think we can say for certain right now whether the predictions he's made which haven't come true yet are valid. I find that the broader the prediction, the more accurate he is.

The biggest mistake I've seen him make so far was to suggest that you should buy silver in 2011, which was near its peak.

Why is Schiff so interesting? Look at this list:

Raghuram Rajan
Nouriel Roubini
Robert Wiedemer
Nassim Taleb
John Paulson
Dean Baker
Med Jones

These are all people who - like Peter Schiff - predicted the 2008 Financial Crash...

Furthermore, if Peter Schiff is such an ace, then why didn't he - like John Paulson - bet against the market back in 2007 and become one of the 100 richest individuals in the world?

And a word of caution when it comes to predicting recessions by the Grand Old Man of Neoclassical Economics:

"To prove that Wall Street is an early omen of movements still to come in GNP, commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties."

- Paul Samuelson

I already knew about Nouriel Roubini, and Dean Baker. I haven't heard of any of the others yet. Thanks for sharing that with me. I will look into them too.

I like Schiff the best because I happened to find out about him first, and because I've read a couple of his books after finding him. I realize that among those who predicted the crash, that he is not super exceptional. But the group who accurately predicted the crash is very small, so that still makes him better than most any other economist to listen to.

Something I've noticed about the people who predicted the crash is that their ideas about the economy vary widely. From what I've seen, those who resemble Schiff are the largest group, but I'm not sure that they are even a majority. My understanding is that Dean Baker was the very first who predicted the crash, and he is a Keynesian, which is very different from Schiff.

I think I like Med Jones the best of that group you showed me. It looks like his predictions have been more accurate than anybody else's, and they appear in general to be compatible with what I've seen from Schiff and Roubini and others like them.