Editor-In-Chief: Half of All [Research] Literature Is False

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AspieUtah
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22 May 2015, 8:57 am

InvestmentWatchBlog.com wrote:
In the past few years more professionals have come forward to share a truth that, for many people, proves difficult to swallow. One such authority is Dr. Richard Horton, the current editor-in-chief of the Lancet – considered to be one of the most well respected peer-reviewed medical journals in the world.

Dr. Horton recently published a statement declaring that a lot of published research is in fact unreliable at best, if not completely false....

InvestmentWatchBlog.com: "Editor In Chief of World's Best Known Medical Journal: Half of All the Literature Is False" (May 21, 2015)
http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/edit ... e-is-false


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beneficii
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22 May 2015, 9:17 am

It's not all that surprising. That's why you need to look at reproducibility, an unfortunately often overlooked aspect of the scientific method. Generally, if all you've got to support a position is some study decades in the past that has not been reproduced, your position is in trouble; on the other hand, if it gets reproduced time and time again, it's likely to be much more reliable. It's best when you have numerous journals and research groups time and time again getting the same results.

I've seen in various fields, be they on the question of gay rights, climatology, and medicine, where people will quote at most a few, often really old studies, and swear by them, even though they have hardly or not at all been reproduced.

It's not surprising, because I've come across numerous studies that have not been reproduced or have been reproduced much less than would be expected from the time the studies were published.

EDIT: And of course, you also want to look at the quality of the studies, such as by looking at sample sizes.


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22 May 2015, 9:32 am

The source in the OP's link seems to be in agreement regarding reproducibility (which they call replicability), with a lot more valuable info. Also, to clarify, this discussion is about the medical, not the non-medical scientific literature (the latter seems to be put up as an example for the medical research to follow in this discussion):

Quote:
Can bad scientific practices be fixed? Part of the problem is that no-one is incentivised to be right. Instead, scientists are incentivised to be productive and innovative. Would a Hippocratic Oath for science help? Certainly don’t add more layers of research red-tape. Instead of changing incentives, perhaps one could remove incentives altogether. Or insist on replicability statements in grant applications and research papers. Or emphasise collaboration, not competition. Or insist on preregistration of protocols. Or reward better pre and post publication peer review. Or improve research training and mentorship. Or implement the recommendations from our Series on increasing research value, published last year. One of the most convincing proposals came from outside the biomedical community. Tony Weidberg is a Professor of Particle Physics at Oxford. Following several high-profile errors, the particle physics community now invests great effort into intensive checking and re-checking of data prior to publication. By filtering results through independent working groups, physicists are encouraged to criticise. Good criticism is rewarded. The goal is a reliable result, and the incentives for scientists are aligned around this goal. Weidberg worried we set the bar for results in biomedicine far too low. In particle physics, significance is set at 5 sigma—a p value of 3 × 10–7 or 1 in 3·5 million (if the result is not true, this is the probability that the data would have been as extreme as they are). The conclusion of the symposium was that something must be done. Indeed, all seemed to agree that it was within our power to do that something. But as to precisely what to do or how to do it, there were no firm answers. Those who have the power to act seem to think somebody else should act first. And every positive action (eg, funding well-powered replications) has a counterargument (science will become less creative). The good news is that science is beginning to take some of its worst failings very seriously. The bad news is that nobody is ready to take the first step to clean up the system.


http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/ ... 0696-1.pdf


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26 May 2015, 6:01 am

the biggest problem with research is funding. Researchers are less apt to recieve funding for their next project if they fail to prove the hypothesis of their last project--this is somehow seen as a failure by many funders.

Also, many funders have an agenda, and researchers are under pressure to give them the results "they pau for."

A big reason why this has happened is because of government cuts to Universities.

Universities are not just shcools, but research centers too. When there was more government funding, researchers were much more free to do research and follow up on other research, guided by actual results.

The way it is now, research is about finding funding rather than finding knowledge.


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27 May 2015, 8:04 pm

Follow the $$$$$$$$$$$$$$.



traven
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28 May 2015, 3:28 am

doesn't surprise actually, oh wait the other half is surprisingly high up too half too ?