Let's discus the Iran nuclear deal

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I'm for it. I think it's a win for peace and stability in the middle east.

I'm certain many of you disagree.

I propose that you have to cite the actual document if you have a problem with something it says?

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2 ... -deal.html

When does Israel and Saudi Arabia attack Iran?

Soon?
Next US administration?
10 years when the inspections stop?

I don't think they will get the votes to override Obama's veto. It was reported opponents of the deal have all the Republican and 10 Democratic Senate votes against.

I would assume since most of Israel and Saudi Arabia equipment is USA made the US can jam it and limit or prevent an attack. I would assume since since Israel is cutting edge high tech and a lot of the USA equipment is old and bug filled Israel if she wishes could cripple the US economy via cyberattack.

I wish I could be as optimistic as you. So many times we've been burned by the Middle East. We should stick with the Saudis and Israel but those darn Russians. They just love Iran.

Now we are just giving Iran the opportunity to buy arms. Where will it lead? War mongers most likely love this arrangement as it will keep the conflict going indefinitely because Iran will not be a peaceful presence just because, out of the goodness of our hearts, sanctions were lifted.

Russia is acting in self-interest. Iran is their neighbor. Do you think that a deal could have been made without russia?

What do you mean by "stick with the Saudis and Israel"? The Saudi royalty sells us oil and the saudi people hate us. Have you forgotten that most of the 9/11 hijackers were saudis?

What has Israel done for us, ever, other than drag us into their conflict with palestine?

Iran has the right to defend itself and that extends to a right to acquire arms.

What indefinite conflict are you referring to? The ayatollah's pissing match with Israel?

I don't think israel or saudi arabia think they have anything to gain by attacking iran.

In fact, the head of mossad has said that attacking iran would give iran every reason to build a nuclear weapon and use it against israel.

I think Russia is a big part of why the deal was made.

Lesser of two evils.


Since when have they drug us into their conflict with Gaza? It's their matter.


They only have the right to acquire arms if the world gives it to them, otherwise, they don't.


Wait and see! Wait and see!

I bet Iran has plenty of weapons already, maybe even a couple of nukes tucked away. But they have to be aware that if they used them on Israel they would be open to immediate attack by the US and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia and Israel are not interested in attacking Iran, but instead want the US to do it for them.

Strange logic, when there are so many other players in the middle east too.

If the house of saud were not corrupt that nation would be our enemy.

If it weren't for american jews and evangelical christians, we wouldn't have any reason to care about israel.



Peace talks. Arms deals. We should stay out of it, but we don't.



The US, UN, and EU arms embargo against Iran was a means to an end. We have reached that end.

It's not actually possible for us to flex our muscles at them forever and expect them to cowtow. There are very few nations in the world that are under an enforced military restriction long-term, and the only two i can think of right now are germany and japan.

There are 37 US military installations in Germany right now. There used to be a lot more. Between that, the UN, the EU, etc, Germany doesn't need or really get to have it's own military.

We have more than 50 military installations in Japan, and Japan has been restricted until very recently from having anything but a small defensive force.

These are countries that we have cooperative treaties with. Countries that actually sort of like us. Countries that we conquered and occupied a long time ago.

Without a long, bloody war and a long standing military presence we could hardly expect to have the same kind of influence over Iran.



Don't get it.

They have a lot of pre-embargo conventional weapons.

There isn't an intelligence agency in the world that thinks they have all the pieces required to build a nuclear weapon.

They have been "a year away" from having the bomb for almost 20 years now.

If Israel thought they had a nuclear weapon, israel would be openly calling for war or would have already started it.

Pretty much all analysts agree that Iran would rather have the threat of being able to develop a weapon in the future than have the actual weapon.

I don't think the saudis ever had any interest in conflict with Iran.

To quote T.S. Eliot,

"This is the way the world shall end,
Not with a bang, but a whimper."

The Hollow Men

The only thing I can say is bend over and start kissing your arse, because this is not going to turn out to be the best.

I think Woody Allen put it better.

“More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.”

There are basically 3 alternatives to the deal.

1: Wreck the deal the interim agreement before it, and do nothing.

Which would mean few to no restraints on Iran's nuclear program.

2: War.

Both US and Israeli experts believe that this would likely ignite a huge middle-eastern conflict, and at best would fail to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, and possibly hasten their development of a nuclear weapon.

3: Increase sanctions in hopes of Iran giving us more concessions.

This looks a lot like Option 1 to me. Plus, as hard as the USA may sanction Iran, Europe and Russia have a lot more economic ties to Iran, and a lot more domestic pressure to loosen sanctions. So they may react to a hard-nosed US stance by loosening their sanctions.

The UK's ambassador said that if nuclear talks fail, “you would probably see more sanctions erosion”

Germany's ambassador said “If diplomacy fails, then the sanctions regime might unravel.”

No country is willing to attack Iran, because Iran has built up their air defenses to repel the full weight of the U.S. Air Force.
Russia was arming them with state of the art air defenses, until the UN Sanctions kicked in.

Iran could do significant damage to the U.S. AF and probably wipe out the combined weight of the Israel and Saudi air forces.

It would be a very bloody war to invade Iran, with near up to date military.
They have a modern military that can deal quite the punch to a world power.

This deal is the best possible deal you can get in this climate.
At the very least, it will drive oil prices cheaper as Iran starts exporting oil, giving a much needed boon to the developed economies.

Iran was moving full steam ahead with building a bomb (they have most of the needed minerals natively in Iran in mass quantities) with the sanctions in place.
They can build a bomb with the sanctions in place within the next 3 years.

Though Iran has two choices, accept the agreement which allow their economy to recover and grow, bringing much needed internal instability (save the government).

Keep up the nuclear building under the sanctions, while the economy fully collapses, leading to huge unemployment, loss of tax revenue, leading to massive upheaval against the government.

Though on the other hand this deal is viewed widely as an attack on the Jews and Israel, which shows Israel and Jews world wide that the West still doesn't care about them and wants them wiped out.

Maybe this will prompt Israel to take action, so we can watch Israel finally show it's true colors.

Or maybe this will prompt Israel to attack the U.S., forcing the end of the alliance, finally forcing the two state solution into being.

Never underestimate what Bibi will do in response to it.

As for the U.S. Senate, if the reports are true the opposition has 64 votes, 3 votes short of a veto proof majority.
The Democrats and non conservatives are still angry at Obama over what he did to get the Trade Powers Act passed and the impending TPP agreement.
There is very good chance they will sink the deal to hurt Obama to stop TPP.

To lift sanctions, Obama needs the vote of both houses to approve and that is not likely to happen.

The U.S. and Israel have already used cyber warfare to damage Iran's nuclear program to slow it down.

No idea why people would be against it, as it provides worldwide recognition that Iran is giving up on nuclear weapons, and if they don't, then there's your internationally recognized casus belli.

Kinda a win for both sides.

Though, I don't mind if Iran has nukes. Israel does. Only fair.

S-300/SA-10 is overrated and obsolete compared to radar penetrating and modern radar jamming planes (HARM is always going to be incoming as soon as they light their radar up). Sure, they'll get some hits in, but it's more of a speed bump than an actual credible threat.

The main problem is finding the right targets (nuclear) to hit without buying into a proper and prolonged campaign, which is something Israel isn't a fan of, for example.

Have to wonder if a potential cold war type situation will erupt over this...

And cheap oil prices are the last thing the industry wants, so you can pretty much count on the deal going nowhere. If you believe what anyone says about "cheap oil" being the goal of the industry, you are believing a lie. When the price of oil drops, they lose money big time and they start laying people off. It's the last thing they want to see happen. What they want is for the price per barrel to remain high, the higher the better. That way they can keep paying people but on the downside, it also causes them to drill more and duh - the more wells, the more oil, the more supply. They don't always seem to understand how economics works but they most likely think developing countries will pick up the slack.

What does fairness have to do with it?