GOP backed 3rd party candidate said to be confirmed...

Post Reply New Topic

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/weekly-stan ... tial-race/

Bill Kristol let it slip early that the GOP establishment has settled on a candidate to run against Trump and Hillary.

Other sources said the announcement is coming in the next few weeks about the candidate.


Rumors are circulating that Mitt Romney, Bernie Sanders, John McCain are the candidate in question.

Is Kristol really in the know, or is this just wishful thinking on his part?

Kristol is a desperate sad man at this point, there is no 3rd party candidate

the guy has been totally delusional and shell shocked about Trump's candidacy for months, they invented new forms of math thinking of ways Trump wouldn't reach the needed delegates by Cleveland.

It's too late to get on all the ballots at this point, they missed the deadline in Texas which no Republican can win without.

Michael Bloomberg is extremely rich and took a serious look at running and didn't see any viable path to victory and that he had to make the decision by like the end of March. Too late now.

I think pissed off Bernie fans will probably disperse among Hillary, Trump, the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and the Green candidate Jill Stein.

I have no doubt that you're right. But I wouldn't discount the possibility that the Republican party bosses will try to usurp the choice of the rank-and-file, and choose someone acceptable to them, causing literal riots comparable to that the Democrats had gone though in the 60's.

The party bosses have mostly accepted their fate, I'm not convinced the Paul Ryan stuff is real or just reality TV drama for Trump to cash in on later. Even Lindsay Graham is supporting Trump now, the politicians see the writing on the wall and none of them want Hillary to be president. There is an extremist fringe, the neoconservatives and talking heads(Bill Kristol, Glenn Beck) that hate Trump above all else but they lost credibility long before Trump came along and now Trump has embarrassed them to the point that they're getting chased out of the party. The GOP really doesn't have party bosses like the Democrats do who maintain much more control over their process(ironically enough it was the Democrats under George McGovern that fostered in the much more democratic primary voting system over the old conventions and caucuses which were completely controlled by the party bosses)

It's been said: Democrats fall in love, while Republicans fall in line.

He's been working with the rest who are involved in it.

As the article says others are stating an announcement is coming in a few weeks.

I thought he was saying this weekend? Like I said, Bill Kristol is a sad broken man. He should get it over with and vote for Hillary Clinton, neoconservativism is dead.

He did say that.
Other sources said he jumped the gun and the candidate in question will be announced in the coming weeks.

Neocon is heart of the GOP, even Trump reeks of it.

It will likely be quite easy for a "GOP-aligned" independent candidate (assuming he isn't completely batshit) to sink Trump's chances of becoming president, as a lot of GOP voters are basically screaming for an alternative to Trump.

Here is an illustration: Pew Research did a poll back in March on the political views of those supporting each presidential candidate... Here I couldn't help notice that supporters of John Kasich (who made up 23 percent of GOP supporters/leaners at the time) were generally more in agreement with Hillary Clinton supporters than Trump supporters on several political issues.

Kasich supporters also had a very negative view of Donald Trump, with 55 percent considering him and outright bad choice for president. (poor + terrible)




Source: http://www.people-press.org/2016/03/31/ ... n-the-u-s/

It is especially interesting to note the difference (or more precisely, the lack hereof) between Kasich and Clinton supporters wrt. views on immigration, diversity and social issues: http://www.people-press.org/2016/03/31/ ... al-issues/

Another look from a different perspective:



Source: https://morningconsult.com/2016/05/03/cruz-backers/

So, given that Kasich supporters (1) loathe Trump and (2) have policy views that lie closer to supporters of Hillary Clinton, it is not unreasionable to assume that quite a lot of these individuals will be willing to vote for an independent candidate - even if it means handing the election to Hillary Clinton.

After all, if 1 out of 4 Kasich supporters would abandon Trump in favor of a Democrat (as demonstrated above), an even larger share would likely flock to a GOP-aligned independent candidate who aligned himself with the policy positions of John Kasich.

Polls show a higher percentage of Republicans back Donald Trump now than Democrats who back Hillary Clinton, this is why Trump is now tying or leading Hillary in national polls. Republicans support their nominee, simple as that. Polls from March are totally meaningless at this point.

There isn't going to be a 3rd party candidate that sinks Trump, if anything the 3rd party candidate will leach votes from Hillary as John Anderson did in 1980 from Jimmy Carter. There has been a lot of attention given to the Libertarian Party candidates who are basically pragmatist moderates in Gary Johnson/Bill Weld but Trump leads with them in the race even with Gary pulling 10% which in all likelihood will not happen in November. The Bernie supporters are much more miffed than than the fake outrage from establishment Republicans who only really exist in the Beltway cocktail circuit and on TV, the base and grassroots back the nominee whereas that is not that case in the Democratic Party. This is probably the most credible Libertarian ticket ever in terms of actual governing experience and they might soak up the votes that can't bring themselves to vote for Hillary or Trump, Bill Kristol heads the neoconservative movement and his relevancy and magazine are both being rejected by the people, all Kristol cares about is someone who is dedicated to putting the security interests of Israel and Saudi Arabia before that of the United States.

A lot of Republicans are only saying they'll vote for Trump because they don't want a Democrat.
It's the anything but Hillary effect.

Many would rather have a true Republican over being used by Trump to further his "liberal" agenda.

GOP's plan is simple run a candidate that is closest to who truly takes GOP Values to heart instead of paying them lip service in hopes of:

1) Splitting the vote enough to throw it into the House and focus on the House race.
2) Defeat Trump and save the GOP from complete collapse for another day.

The last time we had a powerful 3rd party candidate was Perot in 1992, who is blamed by the GOP for allowing Clinton to be elected.

It's widely believed that Perot stole enough votes in enough key states from Bush to allow Clinton to swing the Electoral College to his favor.

National polls don't mean anything until September.

Al Gore was leading Bush in the summer of 2000
Kerry was edging out Bush in summer of 2004
McCain was beating Obama in summer of 2008
Romney was beating Obama in summer of 2012

Right now more people hate Trump than Clinton, which if it holds means Clinton and the Democrats will sweep the polls on GE day.

Trump has to win over the minorities, women, LGBT, etc... to win.
If Trump gives it the old college try, it will drive the GOP voters away from him (they hate the above groups) to the point the majority will probably not vote at all out of spite.

This very issue has killed the last two GOP candidates, letting the Democrats win.
I mean the main donors of the GOP pulled funding out of his campaign when he deviated from the GOP core voters.
They did the same thing to Romney, which led to Romney flip flopping on every major issue.
Romney himself said the donors didn't want him appealing beyond the right, because they didn't want those voters to damage the GOP.
It's in the book.

Like I said, a lot of wishful thinking on your part. Hillary is despised by a large part of this country, they know her and their opinion on her will not change whereas Trump is fluid with most people only knowing the media caricature. This race mirrors 1980 whereas Reagan was painted a crazy extremist down to the possible threat of a moderate Republican running as independent as John Anderson did. How well did Jimmy Carter do in November? Republicans will vote for Trump, the polls already show it and he was more enthusiasm behind his campaign that John McCain and Mitt Romney combined. What do LGBT people have against Trump? There isn't anything there to attack other than the strawman Republican.

Trump will win more the of minority vote than any Republican in generations because he is speaking their language economically, Trump is even carrying a decent number of Hispanics many of whom are actually firmly against illegal immigration as they live in the communities and have to compete with these people for jobs. Trump's has a strong a appeal to black voters, Hillary's record is awful when it comes to this and she can only coast on her husband's outdated reputation so long. Don't mistake the black community not going for a Jewish socialist from Vermont as a ringing endorsement of Hillary Clinton. Trump doesn't need a large % of these voters, the GOP has already basically bottomed out on them so Trump can really only do better and lets not forget the amount of Democratic voters he will pick up. Union households already vote Republican about 40% of the time so think about how Trump will do with his message on trade and immigration which the Democratic party is wildly out of step with it's base on.

Trump doesn't really need the minority vote to win, I know that's a mantra Democrats keep repeating to themselves but Trump can win fairly easily by increasing his share of the white vote which is historic lows for the Democratic party which should be a much bigger concern for them than Trump's trouble with minorities as Obama only won 39% of the white vote and Hillary is poised to do even worse and that's without the enthusiasm of voting for the first black president. Hillary's attempt at painting her campaign as a historic first is falling on flat ears as women don't see her as some sort of hero and glass ceiling breaker, young women completely have abandoned her for Bernie Sanders and these are the voters Barack Obama mobilized. Hillary has taken extremist positions on immigration and guns, she is going to get absolutely destroyed in the culturally conservative parts of this country.

Republican voters are excited about their candidate, the establishment Republicans might not be but they are more hated by voters than anybody else in this country. Trump standing against Bushism and the neoconservatives is why he won, his populism is in line with the views of the vast majority of the actual voting base Democrats face a huge problem with Bernie, something like 50% of Bernie supporters say they will not vote for Hillary and while some may fall in line I don't suspect all will and history backs this up. Bernie is the outsider candidate so you can't compare him to the ultimate insider in Hillary in 2008 who were obviously always going to vote for Obama in a Democratic wave year. This election season favors the Republicans after 8 years of a very divisive Democratic president with a non-existent economic recovery and foreign policy flub after flub, everything is set up for the Republican to win. Democrats can only comfort themselves by repeating mantras that have been proven wrong over and over again, these same people said Trump could never win the nomination and they'll be just as wrong in November.

In 1968, Eugene McCarthy supporters threw a big fit at the convention and while most ended voting for Humphrey's not all of them did. About 18% of Eugene McCarthy supporters voted for George Wallace in November and it probably would of been more had he not picked Curtis LeMay as his running mate, polls show Trump picking up about 20% of Bernie supporters and there are a lot looking at other candidates as well. The Libertarian Party candidates willl likely appeal more to disgruntled Democratic voters this election season the Republicans, Jill Stein ran in 2012 as well and has a national network thru the Green Party. Hillary is doing AWFUL with independents, Trump is trouncing her and she can't win without them.

Just wait, it's going to be a lot of fun come November.

Someone's horrible divorced from reality and what the GOP is doing in the states where they have control.
It's almost as bad as what Sander's fans claim.

We'll see, you guys never thought Trump would win the nomination and then you thought he'd never pull even with Hillary in the polling. I think it's pretty clear that the media narrative is the one horribly divorced from reality, it you read and actually think about what I've told you then you will know I am correct whether you admit it or not.

Actually I told everyone that Trump would win the nomination...

I know what you wrote and it's horrible incorrect and doesn't even line up with all the polling data, not even Fox News Polling data (Which is the official channel of the GOP).

What goes on and the state and local level greatly effects how people vote for national stuff.

Right now Virginia, NC, SC, OK, FL and KY will be tight due to the anti gay and transgender stuff being passed into law.
Michigan will swing to Hillary, because the furry at the GOP Governor and the GOP majority over Flint Water, business tax credits, business tax cuts, tax cuts for the rich, tax increases for the middle and lower classes, gas tax increase and all the corruption they've been caught with, will likely see the Democrats do well at the state level.

Wisconsin's GOP Governor and GOP Majority is in hot water over corruption, tax cuts for businesses and the rich while raising taxes on everyone else.
Indiana is having something similar.

Granted all 3 states typically vote for Democrats for President in a normal year.

Ohio is leaning heavily Democratic this election year in part due to how the GOP shunned their governor in the primary process and how bad the previous GOP ruling majority was to them.

The GOP has always lost when Ohio has gone to the Democrats.

NE and DC will go to Democrats easily
Midwest will be split between the two
West Coast will easily swing to the Democrats with all the trouble the GOP has caused in those states.

GOP will take the South and some Plains states.

Democrats are really looking at taking the U.S. Senate and House back.

It also helps that the GOP is literally split even in the state and congressional races, leading to conservatives going after Speaker Ryan in the primaries to remove him from office for not doing what they demand.