Tropical system Michael
ASPartOfMe
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National hurricane center says
today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over
portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula,
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts over portions of the northern Gulf Coast by
mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and
magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor
the progress of this system.
He became a tropical storm this afternoon.
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ASPartOfMe
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Michael is now a hurricane
1. Michael is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane when it
reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and life-
threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida
Gulf Coast regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity.
Residents in the storm surge and hurricane watch areas should follow
any advice given by local officials, as storm surge and hurricane
warnings will likely be issued later today.
2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of the Carolinas through Thursday.
3. Hurricane conditions will spread over portions of western Cuba
this afternoon, where a hurricane warning is now in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today.
4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.
_________________
“Self Acceptance is a process not a performance”
“You are autistic enough. And you always have been”
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity.
ASPartOfMe
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Location: Long Island, New York
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018
...MICHAEL BRINGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO
WESTERN CUBA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
TORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...
Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...5-8 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the
far western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by
Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...
Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend across Georgia into South Carolina...
4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.
Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods.
Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.
SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
_________________
“Self Acceptance is a process not a performance”
“You are autistic enough. And you always have been”
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity.
ASPartOfMe
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Bryan Norcross says:
Cities threatened include: Destin, Panama City, and Tallahassee – and Pensacola is close. Tampa appears to be on the fringes of the threat zone at this time, although storm surge flooding of low-lying areas is possible, especially at high tide.
Along the North Florida coastline, the extreme danger will be storm surge. Gulf water will be pushed over the land at extreme depths – perhaps 10 feet or more – to the right of where the center comes ashore. It will not be survivable in the affected coastal locations.
Inland, in Tallahassee for example, this storm will be significantly worse than Hermine, if the forecast track and intensity are correct. Falling branches and trees will be a significant danger to people, buildings, and cars. Parking your car out in the open where a tree cannot fall on it might save it. Prepare for an extended period without power.
Flooding and tornadoes are also threats in areas to the right of the storm’s track.
Tuesday is the final preparation day in the Panhandle and the Big Bend/Nature Coast of Florida. The weather will be still be good for preparation, though there will be a few showers.
Michael’s outer bands could begin as early as Tuesday evening. In any case, the worst of the storm is expected on Wednesday.
The computer forecast models, and thus the official National Hurricane Center forecast are focusing on the western Florida Panhandle near Panama City or Destin for the landfall point of the center. Bear in mind, however, that the intensity and forward speed of the storm are interlinked with the exact landfall point, so adjustments east or west are still possible. The extreme threat from storm surge will encompass the entire Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast. The highest surge will be to the east of the landfall point. Gulf water will rise as far away as Tampa Bay.
Michael has consistently strengthened faster than forecast, which has caused the National Hurricane Center to increase its forecast for landfall intensity. Currently, Michael is forecast to come ashore as a 120 mph - Category 3 hurricane. We always prepare for a category higher.
Steady strengthening is expected, with the most likely rapid increase in the 24 hours before landfall as atmospheric conditions become a bit more favorable.
This has the potential to be the worst hurricane in the Panhandle and the Big Bend/Nature Coast in memory. Full-scale hurricane preparations are required. Pay close attention to instructions from local emergency management.
Michael’s effect in South Florida will be minimal, although periods of heavy rain with gusty winds are possible through the week if a band feeding into the hurricane passes through. That is expected off and on. In the Keys, the winds on the fringe of Michael will be noticeable, along with tropical downpours in squalls. Conditions there will improve by Wednesday.
_________________
“Self Acceptance is a process not a performance”
“You are autistic enough. And you always have been”
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity.
Hurricane Michael upgraded to Category 2 hurricane
Hurricane Michael strengthened gained Category 2 status early Tuesday and is expected to a Category 3 before the end of the day.
As of 7 a.m. CDT, Michael was moving north-northwest at 12 mph and positioned about 365 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. The National Hurricane Center said the storm was moving north-northwestward through the southern Gulf of Mexico, and that storm surge and hurricane warnings were in effect for the northeastern Gulf coast.
ASPartOfMe
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1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a
storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Water levels will
rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within
the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect
life and property today.
2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf
Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds
associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also
extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.
3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia and South Carolina.
4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba
_________________
“Self Acceptance is a process not a performance”
“You are autistic enough. And you always have been”
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity.
ASPartOfMe
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Location: Long Island, New York
Category 3 Major Hurricane
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...
Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the southeast U.S. coast by Wednesday, and possible in the watch
area by late Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...
Western Cuba...An additional 1 to 2 inches.
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening
flash floods.
The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.
Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.
SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
Peninsula, and southern Georgia.
_________________
“Self Acceptance is a process not a performance”
“You are autistic enough. And you always have been”
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity.
The flooding and the storm surges can be more disastrous than the winds.
Katrina didn't even hit New Orleans, but wave battering caused by Katrina breached and dissolved the levees and flooded most of the city, bringing about massive destruction.
Hurricane Mitch was a major hurricane, but what did most of its killing in Central America was the more than six feet of rain (yes, that's feet, not inches) that brought about 11,000 known deaths and probably a far greater number.
National Hurricane Center: Michael is a Category 4
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018
...MICHAEL BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 86.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* north of Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next 12 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 86.6 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion
is expected this morning, followed by a northeastward motion later
today and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael
will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. The
center of Michael's eye is then expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area later today, move
northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight
and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the
United States on Friday.
Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph
(210 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is now a category 4 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional
strengthening is possible today before Michael makes landfall in the
Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big Bend area. Weakening is
expected after landfall as Michael moves across the southeastern
United States.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter data is 945 mb (27.91 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...
Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, with tropical storm
conditions expected during the next several hours. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area this morning, and are possible within the tropical storm watch
area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the southeast U.S. coast later today, and possible in the watch
area by tonight.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening
flash floods.
The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.
Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.
SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase today into over
parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida Peninsula, and
southern Georgia.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Micheal is now at Catagory 4
Bryan Norcross says:
There is only one storm in the record book going back 100 years that is something like Hurricane Michael. In 1975, Hurricane Eloise came ashore to the west of Panama City as a Category 3. Panama City Beach was devastated, even though the core of the storm missed the most populated areas. Unless we are very lucky, Michael is not going to miss.
Tallahassee needs to be ready for the worst storm in the last 75 years. It is going to be a close call whether the core of Michael misses just to the west or passes over the city.
In the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend/Nature Coast, full preparations for HURRICANE MICHAEL must be completed tonight. Winds will begin to pick up overnight. Gulf water is already rising, which is a precursor to the huge push of storm surge that will come near the time of landfall tomorrow afternoon or evening.
Michael is expected to make landfall Wednesday afternoon and move across the Panhandle tomorrow night.
The target zone for the center of circulation appears to be near Panama City. A slight deviation to the left or to the right of the city is impossible to predict even this close to landfall. The specific location makes a big difference because the massive storm surge – the Gulf water pushed up over the land from 6 to 12 feet high or more – will occur to the right of where the center comes ashore.
The dangerous surge will extend east across the Panhandle and the Big Bend/Nature Coast from the landfall point. Tampa Bay is on the fringe of the threat zone, though flooding of low-lying areas around high tide is still possible.
Inland flooding and some tornadoes are also likely as the storm makes landfall and moves across Georgia and the Carolinas. This storm will not linger like Florence, but will still bring the potential of local flooding. In addition, winds will be high enough near the storm track to take out power.
_________________
“Self Acceptance is a process not a performance”
“You are autistic enough. And you always have been”
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity.
Evacuate or not? Some gamble on staying despite Michael
Thomas, a 50-year-old air conditioning repairman, plans to defy an evacuation order and ride out the monster storm in an apartment that’s just a few hundred yards from the beach and even closer to the tea-colored Grand Lagoon, which was slowly rising early Wednesday as the massive Category 4 storm pushed ocean water toward the coast of the Florida Panhandle.
An Illinois native with a beard, long hair and a streak of independence, Thomas hasn’t been through a major hurricane before; he’s only lived in Panama City Beach about seven years. A neighbor with far more storm experience is evacuating to higher ground, and authorities urged residents to move inland.
But police weren’t being pushy about enforcing the order, and Thomas figured he, his wife and their puppy will be OK since they live in a second-floor apartment. It’s more than 10 feet off the ground, after all, and forecasters say the water in his area isn’t supposed to rise that much. “If it does I guess we’ll be swimming,” he said Tuesday evening as the sky darkened overhead...

Timothy Thomas talks about staying at home in Panama City Beach, Florida. (AP Photo/Jay Reeves)
If Michael makes landfall as a Category 4 storm, as expected, it will be the strongest hurricane to ever come ashore along the Florida Panhandle in records dating to 1851, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, tropical scientist at Colorado State University. In fact, Florida's entire Gulf Coast north of Punta Gorda has never recorded a Category 4-plus hurricane landfall.
No longtime residents of this area will have seen a hurricane this strong before.
As the National Weather Service in Tallahassee emphasized early Wednesday, this morning is the last chance to get to a safe place in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend hurricane and storm surge warned areas.
Michael is currently centered about 90 miles southwest of Panama City, Florida, and is moving northward.
The flooding and the storm surges can be more disastrous than the winds.
Katrina didn't even hit New Orleans, but wave battering caused by Katrina breached and dissolved the levees and flooded most of the city, bringing about massive destruction.
Hurricane Mitch was a major hurricane, but what did most of its killing in Central America was the more than six feet of rain (yes, that's feet, not inches) that brought about 11,000 known deaths and probably a far greater number.
The storm surge is the #1 killer and destroyer of property. That isn’t even counting economic and environmental impacts.
As far as body count goes, the Bangladesh Cyclone of 1970 is the deadliest, with Typhoon Tip (1979) being the strongest of all time.
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