MIT Predicted Global collapse starting 2020

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In the early 1970s, a computer program called World1 predicted that civilization would likely collapse by 2040. Researchers from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) had programmed it to consider a model of sustainability for the world.

https://www.mnn.com/green-tech/computer ... -of-growth
According to the World1 program it identified 2020 as a tipping point for civilization.

"At around 2020, the condition of the planet becomes highly critical. If we do nothing about it, the quality of life goes down to zero. Pollution becomes so seriously it will start to kill people, which in turn will cause the population to diminish, lower than it was in the 1900. At this stage, around 2040 to 2050, civilized life as we know it on this planet will cease to exist."

Well you got to hand it the MIT modellers.....deadly accuracy

Correlation doesn't imply causation. A '70s compsci experiment is barely napkin math by today's standards. I know devs who do more math for fun on their lunch breaks.

I am hoping there is an upside to this disease. That people have used this time to reevaluate what is important to them - things like family time. As the economy comes back that there will be better working conditions for many, hopefully wages will increase, and people will not want the return of heavy smog and dirty water due to industry and will speak up against the worst culprits. That, in order to create new jobs, governments will invest in infrastructure and clean energy and other alternatives to make for a better tomorrow.

Show me an accurate simulation of one human before you assign significance to a simulation of billions.

The question is did they predict one of there biggest donors dying in a jail cell in New York

I was being tongue in cheek posting the news story linking back to the Australian ABC news story from the early 70s which at the time MIT and the Club of Rome was pre-occupied with population time-bombs/resource scarcity (although the model does incorporate climate change) rather than pandemics. Of course one could argue there is a tenuous link between climate change and the rise of zoonotic viruses but that's another story.

BTW The program wasn't technically based on correlation it's output was based on a type of regression model and the Q-plot was based on quality of life indicators. Despite its simplicity it represent the first attempt to do global sustainability modelling which is of historic interest to people like myself who used to do this type of stuff for a living back in the 1990s.

I thought the model's prediction about 2020 being a pivotal turning point interesting......

It's certainly a better 2012 than we thought y2k would be.

Ahhh yes the doomsday prophets didn't do so well with y2k...I worked with somebody who lost $20,000 in shares in 2000 (or was it 2001?) after investing in some y2k company.

The Mayans pulled a fast one with 2012 but then again maybe we didn't take into account their knowledge of precession or some other quirk of their brilliant/accurate calendar.

Perhaps this reflects more about our ability to feel financially secure in taking care of other people than it does about a computer model from any time before?

Wouldn't say that too loud given lack of public spending on public hospitals in NY