Joined: 24 Sep 2013 Gender: Male Posts: 27,828 Location: Twin Peaks
02 Apr 2020, 10:24 am
Since it is being said in the news there is supposed to be a big rise in covid19 cases in April, with some predicting a peak in mid April, I thought it would be interesting and informative to post the numbers daily here starting with the 1st of April.
Joined: 24 Sep 2013 Gender: Male Posts: 27,828 Location: Twin Peaks
02 Apr 2020, 9:35 pm
02 isn't over with yet. I have found the best way of getting the full count for a day is to click the yesterday tab. So sometime tomorrow on the 3rd I will click the yesterday tab to get the results for the 2nd.
Joined: 24 Sep 2013 Gender: Male Posts: 27,828 Location: Twin Peaks
02 Apr 2020, 11:17 pm
We'll have to see how many days that continues for. I'll add that in the daily count. It's past midnight Eastern time and right now the toll for Thursday is +968. The US is currently at 18 deaths per 1 million. New York and New Jersey accounted for +500 deaths out of +1000 for Wednesday.
Joined: 2 Mar 2012 Age: 43 Gender: Male Posts: 3,979 Location: Rural England
04 Apr 2020, 7:21 am
UK reported figures aren’t reliable: ”Every day we get one big figure for deaths occurring in the UK. Everyone jumps on this number, taking it to be the latest toll. However NHS England figures – which currently make up the bulk of UK deaths – in fact reflect the day on which the death was reported, not the actual date of death, which is usually days, sometimes weeks, before it appears in the figures.”
”On 30 March, NHS England reported 159 deaths in the 24 hours to 5pm on Sunday 29 March. However, the actual number of people who died in that 24-hour period was revised up to 401 in Thursday’s report and again to 463 on Friday as more deaths which occurred on that date were reported. And this figure could be revised up again as more deaths come to light.”
Should we be digging into mortality reporting & count compilation methods in other countries too?
(NB: my wife’s seen the same issue covered by the BBC this morning.)
Joined: 24 Sep 2013 Gender: Male Posts: 27,828 Location: Twin Peaks
04 Apr 2020, 7:34 am
I don't put much stock in it. I don't think it's something that can be properly tabulated on a daily bases. I think they are going to have to run the numbers after the fact to get something somewhat accurate. I know with the H1N1 pandemic, the official figures and the figures estimated by several CDC personnel were miles apart.
Joined: 2 Mar 2012 Age: 43 Gender: Male Posts: 3,979 Location: Rural England
04 Apr 2020, 7:55 am
Yeah, we probably should withhold credence from figures less than 3-4 weeks ago... and look at trends the revised figures reveal as they emerge.
The Graun (predictably) went with ”this means underestimation only”, but if the figures represent day of report rather than death any given day could be either over or under estimated: giving us a jumble of inconsistent approximations. But since that’s the best data available, we’ll just have to look upon it with appropriate caution.