Satellite data shows up climate forecasts

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Double Retired
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22 Oct 2022, 2:44 pm

We should perhaps be concerned about compressing the change into a much briefer period of time, though.

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cyberdad
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22 Oct 2022, 7:31 pm

One minor issue is the apparent "glee" over rainfall as evidence that rising temperatures aren't a thing.

Infact the symptoms of global warming precisely predict regional differences across the globe
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/weather-climate

changes in seasonal temperature
extreme high and low temperatures
heat weaves
drought
flooding
cyclones

Currently Australia is experiencing high rates of cyclone and flooding. Previous cycles there was excessive drought. In Victoria where I live there's been almost a 2 month delay in spring flowering (trees and flowers that normally start to bud in early september are inexplicably budding now in late October).

Combined with COVID and the spiralling fuel costs, food production is going to be severely impacted. Already we are being told to brace for shortages of fruit and vegetables as the prices continue to rise.

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25 Jul 2023, 12:25 pm

Double Retired wrote:

Sigh.

"Scientists fear a critical Atlantic Ocean system might collapse, triggering 'extreme cold' and sea level rise"

(1) The scientists aren't calling it a certainty.

(2) It could make a reasonably watchable movie.

USA Today: "Atlantic Ocean current could collapse soon. How you may endure dramatic weather changes."

Sigh. And I had been optimistically thinking I wouldn't have to worry about it 'til the end of the century.

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Double Retired
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29 Jul 2023, 11:43 am

Yahoo! listed these articles to me this morning.

CNN: "This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in around 120,000 years, scientists say"

Quote:

We have just lived through the hottest three-week-period on record – and almost certainly in more than a hundred thousand years.

Typically these records, which track the average air temperature across the entire world, are broken by hundredths of a degree. But the temperature for the first 23 days of July averaged 16.95 degrees Celsius (62.51 Fahrenheit), well above the previous record of 16.63 degrees Celsius (61.93 Fahrenheit) set in July 2019, according to the report.

The data used to track these records goes back to 1940, but many scientists – including those at Copernicus – say it’s almost certain that these temperatures are the warmest the planet has seen in 120,000 years, given what we know from millennia of climate data extracted from tree rings, coral reefs and deep sea sediment cores.

“These are the hottest temperatures in human history,” said Samantha Burgess, deputy director at Copernicus.

AFP: "N. Atlantic ocean temperature sets record high: US agency"

Quote:

On the heels of a new record high in the Mediterranean, the North Atlantic reached its hottest-ever level this week, several weeks earlier than its usual annual peak, according to preliminary data released Friday by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The news comes after scientists confirmed that July is on track to be the warmest month in record history -- searing heat intensified by global warming that has affected tens of millions of people.

"Based on our analysis, the record-high average sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic Ocean is 24.9 degrees C," or 76.8 Fahrenheit, observed Wednesday, Xungang Yin, a scientist at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, told AFP.

The record is particularly startling as it comes early in the year -- usually, the North Atlantic reaches its peak temperature in early September.

The previous record high was recorded in September 2022, at 24.89 degrees Celsius, Yin said.

The Florida Times-Union:"Researchers, including in Jacksonville, warn of perilous salinity changes in warming oceans"

Quote:

It's been established that salinity levels are changing, and are expected to intensify, he said.

Changing weather patterns due to climate change are contributing to that, making saltier areas of the oceans saltier, and fresher water more fresh.

“What’s going on all over the globe in the ocean is, as it gets warmer, with more sunlight you get more evaporation and water going into the atmosphere," he said. "The important point is that the water left behind is getting saltier."

But the water that evaporates will later come down elsewhere as rainfall, making the ocean there more fresh.

It's all part of a complex system of factors, including warming oceans, acidification and sea-level rise that causes inflow into coastal areas. That can put coral, plankton, mangroves, tidal marshes, macroalgae and seagrass at risk, and even lead to ecosystem collapse.

Yale Environment 360: "It's Not Just Climate Change: Three Other Factors Driving This Summer's Extreme Heat"

Quote:

Climate change may be, by far, the leading driver of this summer’s stifling heat, but three other factors are helping push the mercury to new extremes.

The first is the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha-apai, an underwater volcano near Tonga, in the South Pacific. Typically, volcanic eruptions unleash sulfur-based aerosols, which block sunlight, cooling the planet, but the Hunga Tonga produced only a small amount of aerosols. At the same time, it vaporized a large volume of seawater. That water vapor, a heat-trapping gas, could raise global temperatures by 0.06 degrees F (more than 0.03 degrees C) over the next several years, according to a recent study.

The second factor is a change in the amount of energy radiating from the sun, which rises and falls ever so slightly every 11 years. At the high point in this cycle, a surge in solar energy warms the Earth by around 0.09 degrees F (0.05 degrees C). The sun is now ramping up to its next peak, expected in 2025.

The third factor is that the Pacific Ocean is heading into its warmer El Niño phase, when balmy ocean waters radiate heat into the air. The last strong El Niño raised global temperatures by 0.25 degrees F (0.14 degrees C).

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DoniiMann
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29 Jul 2023, 6:33 pm

Had an interesting post show up in my Fb feed today. It was two heat anomaly maps. One from June 1976 and one from June 2022. This was in response to the person who posted noticing that some people in the UK were saying that the current heatwave was nothing special because they had one before in 1976.
The 1976 picture does indeed show several hot spots. But the 2022 is almost one global hotspot. And that's the difference.

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04 Aug 2023, 8:40 pm

LiveScience: "19 'mass extinctions' had CO2 levels we're now veering toward, study warns"

Quote:

Within a human lifetime, concentrations of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere could reach levels associated with 19 "mass extinctions" that have taken place in the last 534 million years, new research suggests.

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Double Retired
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16 Aug 2023, 4:41 pm

A couple of articles I found interesting. The articles are only related in that they are both about Climate Change. I added the highlighting.

"Scientists issue warning on mysterious ‘uncharted’ changes to our oceans: ‘This is worrying news’"

Quote:

Why do high ocean temperatures matter?

First, warmer water hurts fish populations, CBS News said. Hot water holds less dissolved oxygen, killing some fish, while others retreat to cooler water closer to the Earth’s poles. This empties out the fishing grounds where the seafood industry operates, reducing the availability of fish and raising prices for buyers.

Second, warm water causes coral bleaching. This turns coral white and makes them more vulnerable to disease. Coral also provides shelter for many kinds of fish eggs, so they’re also vital to fish populations — and very difficult to replace.

Third, algae blooms in warm waters can grow out of control. Some harmful algae species create toxins that are absorbed by the shellfish that eat them, making the shellfish poisonous too.

Fourth, the warmer ocean water is melting ice at the poles. In June, the sea ice was at its lowest ever for that time of year.

Because bright white ice reflects sunlight, as NASA reported, having less ice cap means the remaining ice melts more quickly. Then, more heat gets absorbed by dark ocean waters instead of being reflected, accelerating the Earth’s rising temperature.

"We could be 16 years into a methane-fueled 'termination' event significant enough to end an ice age"

Quote:

In the new study, published July 14 in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Nisbet and colleagues compared current trends in atmospheric methane to the abrupt phase of warming during ice age terminations.

"The closest analogy we have to what we think is happening today is these terminations," Nisbet said.

While the evidence remains inconclusive, the scale of such a shift in climate is worth pondering, he added. In the past, terminations have flipped vast expanses of icy tundra in the Northern Hemisphere into tropical grasslands roamed by hippos, Nisbet said. There is no way to know what a termination could signify today, given that we are not in an ice age. "We're not saying we've got proof this is happening, but we're raising the question."

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20 Aug 2023, 8:29 pm

"Shocking images show snowplows cleaning city streets after summer storm brings 12 inches of ice and snow"

Quote:

The residents of Reutlingen were likely quite surprised to see 12 inches of hail and snow during the warmest month of the year. When it comes to changing weather patterns and extreme weather events, we can increasingly expect the unexpected, as our dependence on fossil fuels continues to wreak havoc on every aspect of life on our planet.

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Jakki
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20 Aug 2023, 9:39 pm

Things not looking so good for future Earth ....?

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21 Aug 2023, 3:27 pm

Note: LA just had an earthquake in the middle of a hurricane in the middle of a drought.

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Jakki
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22 Aug 2023, 10:34 am

very apropriate. ^^^^^....yes these are the interessting times that they wished( cursed) upon Us ( whomever).
But they have been particularily interesting ..? for a greater part of my lifetime...So it all seems to make sense .
But the old saying also is out there .." cheer up things could be worse".

Addendum: " And sure enough I cheered up and sure enough they got Worse"
Subsection A. " but I ain't dead yet"
:roll:

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Double Retired
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22 Aug 2023, 10:43 am

Jakki wrote:

" cheer up things could be worse"

Unfortunately, I agree...and think we should get there soon enough.

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23 Aug 2023, 11:52 am

"NASA scientist issues grim warning 35 years after his original prediction: ‘[W]e knew it was coming’"

Quote:

When Hansen appeared before the United States Senate in June of 1988, the world had just experienced the warmest first five months of any year in recorded history, The New York Times reported at the time.

Up until that time, scientists had been cautious about blaming the warming of the planet on pollutants put into the air by human activity. But Hansen told the committee that NASA was 99% certain that the warming trend was caused by the buildup of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere.

Sigh. While 1988 sounds like an early report, there was an earlier warning in New Zealand.

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naturalplastic
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23 Aug 2023, 12:13 pm

Interesting...that someone talked about it THAT far back.

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23 Aug 2023, 1:23 pm

"Climate change could bring year-round heatwaves: UN researcher"

Quote:

As Europe and other regions swelter, a UN researcher cautioned that climate change was enabling increasingly intense and long-lasting heatwaves, which in some areas could soon begin to hit year-round.

^{I don't like hot weather!!}

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Jakki
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23 Aug 2023, 3:09 pm

Foes the above yahoo link consider jet stream patterns? i did not see it mentioned?

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