Tropical Cyclone Hilary Targets Baja and Southern California

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ASPartOfMe
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18 Aug 2023, 8:06 pm

Hurricane Hilary prompts first-ever tropical storm watch for Southern California; "dangerous" flooding expecte

Quote:
Hurricane Hilary, which is expected to bring "rare and dangerous flooding" to the southwestern U.S., has prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue a tropical storm watch for Southern California for the first time in history.

The tropical storm watch is in effect for most of Southern California, including large swaths of San Diego, Orange and Los Angeles counties, along with California's Catalina Island, according to the National Weather Service.

Hilary is now a major Category 4 hurricane. It is expected to decline in strength but bring heavy rainfall to parts of California after hitting Mexico. The storm's remnants are also likely to bring strong winds to some parts of California, including the Los Angeles Basin, the Weather Channel reports.

"It is rare — indeed nearly unprecedented in the modern record — to have a tropical system like this move through Southern California," said Greg Postel, a hurricane and storm specialist at the Weather Channel who has a doctorate in atmospheric sciences.

Hurricane Hilary was located about 310 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, by early Friday evening, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was moving northwest at 12 mph. The storm is expected to turn toward the north-northwest Friday night, the center said.

In its latest advisory, the NHC warned of "life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flooding likely over much of Baja California and the Southwestern U.S. this weekend and early next week."

The NCH has forecast that Hilary is expected to get close to the Baja California Peninsula's west coast this weekend, and will reach Southern California by Sunday night, when it is expected to weaken to a tropical storm.

A tropical storm is defined as having winds of at least 39 mph, according to the National Weather Service.

Forecasters said the storm is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, across portions of Mexico's Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night, with the possibility of flash flooding. The same rainfall amounts are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada.

Postel said there will likely be "damaging wind gusts," especially at higher elevations, in the area, and swells along the coast.

Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for parts of Baja California. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for parts of the peninsula as well in addition to parts of mainland Mexico.

"On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula over the weekend and reach southern California by Sunday night," the hurricane center said.

"Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday afternoon before it reaches southern California," it said.


A look at California’s brief history with hurricanes and tropical storms
Quote:
Thanks to cooler ocean water temperatures and a regional high-pressure system, storms rarely gain or hold enough strength to make landfall as a tropical storm or a hurricane in California. But there have been a few occasions when they have.

The 1939 Long Beach Tropical Storm
September 1939 saw the only tropical storm to make landfall in California in the 20th century.

The storm began as a tropical depression off the coast of Panama and quickly grew into a hurricane.

“The lowest pressure (28.67″) occurred on September 22, when the storm was centered approximately 300 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Two days later, the weakening storm reached Catalina Island where southeast winds gusted to 50 mph. The storm eventually made landfall near San Pedro, bringing torrential rains that totaled more than 5 inches in the Los Angeles area. Mt. Wilson received 11.6 inches of rainfall.

Archival footage shows the rain and coastal storm surge caused widespread flooding that washed away homes and vehicles.

Forty-five lives were lost at sea and property losses were estimated to be $2 million, NOAA said.

Hurricane Norman – 1978
Longtime residents might recall the effects of Hurricane Norman reaching Southern California in September 1978. The system evolved from a tropical disturbance 400 miles west of Acapulco and reached Category 4 hurricane strength as it grazed Socorro Island south of the Baja Peninsula.

By the time it reached the Golden State, it had weakened to a tropical depression, but still packed a punch.

Up to 7 inches of rain fell in some locations. California’s raisin crop was decimated, suffering the largest loss on record. Damage from the storm exceeded $300 million.

The storm also produced a rare summer blizzard on Mt. Whitney that killed four people.

The San Diego Hurricane of 1858
Historical records are limited and no footage exists, but the only known hurricane to hit California arrived on Oct. 2, 1858.

Researchers Michael Chenoweth and Christopher Landsea compiled all known newspaper and weather reports from that period for NOAA.

On Oct. 13, 1858, The San Diego Herald published this vivid account of the storm:

About 11 o’clock A.M. of Saturday, 2d instant, a terrific gale sprung up from the S.S.E. and continued with perfect fury until about 5 P.M., when it somewhat abated, and rain commenced to fall. It blew with such violence, and the air was filled with such dense clouds of dust, that it was impossible to see across the Plaza, and it was with the greatest difficulty that pedestrians could walk the streets. The damage to property was considerable; houses were unroofed and blown down, trees uprooted, and fences destroyed. It is said to have been the severest gale ever witnessed in San Diego.

The next day, the Daily Alta California newspaper correspondent in San Diego filed this report:

The streets, alleys, and roads, from a distance as far as yet heard from, were swept as clean as if a thousand brooms had been laboriously employed for months. The scenes of the next day were unpleasant to witness; persons were standing here and there in groups, discussing and relating the effects of the storm, and the private injuries or losses sustained by them.

Wind damage was largely confined to coastal areas from San Diego to Long Beach, but heavy rains produced flooding inland, the researchers found.


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ASPartOfMe
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19 Aug 2023, 6:48 pm

National Hurricane Center wrote:
Hilary appears to be weakening quickly. The eye is filling
and the cloud tops in the eyewall and rainbands have been warming
during the past several hours. In addition, the hurricane has
become increasingly asymmetric with dry air continuing to wrap into
the western half of the circulation.

Areas of heavy rain are already
spreading across portions of the Baja California Peninsula and the
Southwestern U.S. Hilary is also producing a large area of high
seas along the coast of Baja California and the Gulf of California,
with maximum significant wave heights estimated to be higher
than 40 ft.

Hilary is expected to continue weakening rather quickly while it
moves northward due to significantly cooler waters, drier air, and
an increase in vertical wind shear. However, Hilary is still
expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall or moves very near
the central portion of the Baja California Peninsula. There is high
confidence that Hilary will move into southern California as a
tropical storm.


KEY MESSAGES:
1. Preparations for flooding impacts should be completed as soon as
possible, as heavy rainfall will begin well in advance of the
center. In the Southwestern U.S., the potentially historic
amount of rainfall is expected to cause flash, urban, and arroyo
flooding including landslides, mudslides, and debris flows.
Dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding impacts are expected late
tonight through early Monday.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the west-central coast of
the Baja California Peninsula within the hurricane warning area
tonight and Sunday morning, and are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area on Sunday.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Sunday in
portions of the southwestern U.S. within the Tropical Storm
Warning area. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and
near areas of higher terrain. Gusty winds are expected to spread
well inland across the western U.S.

4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.


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19 Aug 2023, 6:54 pm

It's headed straight for my auntie's place on Long Beach. :(

Watching in horror.

I have family all over So Cal. They need to get out now.


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19 Aug 2023, 7:28 pm

IsabellaLinton wrote:
It's headed straight for my auntie's place on Long Beach. :(

Watching in horror.

I have family all over So Cal. They need to get out now.

This won't be nearly like like the hurricanes you see on the Gulf and East Coasts but is an extremely rare occurrence for that area.

Hurricane Local Statement Los Angeles
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening flooding having possible devastating
impacts across the eastern San Gabriel Mountains and adjacent foothills
of the Antelope Valley. Potential impacts include:
- Major flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and normally dry washes
may become dangerous rivers. Destructive runoff may rage down
mountain valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides,
mudslides, and debris flows. Flood control systems and barriers
may become stressed.
- Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many
road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against life-threatening flooding having possible extensive
impacts across across the remainder of Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties, and possibly in eastern Santa Barbara County. The most
significant flooding is expected over the mountains, foothills,
valleys, and urban areas.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible significant impacts across
Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, with the greatest impacts over
Catalina Island and Santa Barbara Island, as well as the mountains,
valleys, and foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Some of the
strongest winds will impact areas that are normally susceptible to
strong northeast winds. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees uprooted, but with
greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across Southwest
California. However, coastal flooding is possible especially
around Catalina Island and Long Beach.


Hilary Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service San Diego CA EP092023
207 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2023

LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Oceanside
- Carlsbad
- Chula Vista
- San Diego

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted, especially in coastal and valley
locations that don`t typically experience strong winds.
Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- No storm surge inundation forecast

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
surge flooding
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
currents are possible.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
are needed.
- ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
forecasts.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
higher amounts

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos,
and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,
destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while
increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides.
Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.


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Kitty4670
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20 Aug 2023, 12:24 am

My city is one of the places that the Tropical Storm will hit .



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20 Aug 2023, 2:28 am

We have fires in British Columbia. Fires in Washington State.

After Hilary hits San Diego will her remnants continue north up the west coast and effect the fires?

If so will her high winds make the fires worse? Or will torrential rains help fight the fires? Or will the two things cancel out?



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20 Aug 2023, 3:16 am

naturalplastic wrote:
We have fires in British Columbia. Fires in Washington State.

After Hilary hits San Diego will her remnants continue north up the west coast and effect the fires?

If so will her high winds make the fires worse? Or will torrential rains help fight the fires? Or will the two things cancel out?


The planet's going to Hell in a handbasket, probably because we may have irreparably damaged the environment. Maybe we can get conservatives to accept the scientific truth if we tell them it's the apocalypse of Revelations!


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20 Aug 2023, 4:08 am

Kraichgauer wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
We have fires in British Columbia. Fires in Washington State.

After Hilary hits San Diego will her remnants continue north up the west coast and effect the fires?

If so will her high winds make the fires worse? Or will torrential rains help fight the fires? Or will the two things cancel out?


The planet's going to Hell in a handbasket, probably because we may have irreparably damaged the environment. Maybe we can get conservatives to accept the scientific truth if we tell them it's the apocalypse of Revelations!


They all already agree with you that "we are being punished for our sins", but they disagree about which sins. They think God is doing this because we allow abortion and same sex marriage. Not because we allow buring fossil fuels. :lol:

Another thing just hit the headlines...the global drought is causing the Panama Canal to dry up! There is a two hundred ship traffic jam waiting to get through the Canal because the canal cant float ships right because the water level is now so low!



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20 Aug 2023, 9:57 am

naturalplastic wrote:
We have fires in British Columbia. Fires in Washington State.

After Hilary hits San Diego will her remnants continue north up the west coast and effect the fires?

If so will her high winds make the fires worse? Or will torrential rains help fight the fires? Or will the two things cancel out?

The winds are going to continue to die down.

The west coastline actually goes more northwest then north and the storm is going due north so as time goes by it will further and further from the coastline. Everybody is emphasizing California but parts of Nevada including Las Vegas and Reno may get a years worth of rain. If the remnant low survives that far north it wound be Eastern Oregon and Washington and Idaho that will get rained on.

National Hurricane Center
A whole bunch of discussions and graphics is linked from this webpage.


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20 Aug 2023, 4:12 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
We have fires in British Columbia. Fires in Washington State.

After Hilary hits San Diego will her remnants continue north up the west coast and effect the fires?

If so will her high winds make the fires worse? Or will torrential rains help fight the fires? Or will the two things cancel out?


The planet's going to Hell in a handbasket, probably because we may have irreparably damaged the environment. Maybe we can get conservatives to accept the scientific truth if we tell them it's the apocalypse of Revelations!


They all already agree with you that "we are being punished for our sins", but they disagree about which sins. They think God is doing this because we allow abortion and same sex marriage. Not because we allow buring fossil fuels. :lol:

Another thing just hit the headlines...the global drought is causing the Panama Canal to dry up! There is a two hundred ship traffic jam waiting to get through the Canal because the canal cant float ships right because the water level is now so low!


That is true, sadly enough.
They conveniently forget what Jesus said on the subject: "It rains on the just and unjust alike."


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20 Aug 2023, 5:06 pm

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

Hilary made landfall over the northern Baja California Peninsula a
few hours ago with maximum winds estimated to be around 55 kt.
Since then the storm has continued to move north-northwestward with
the center now nearing the California/Mexico border. Maximum
sustained winds are now estimated to be near 50 kt based on the
earlier aircraft data and satellite estimates. Surface
observations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds have spread
into southern California and there have been a few reports of gusts
around hurricane force. In addition, radar images show that bands
of heavy rain have spread across portions of the southwestern United
States and this will continue through early Monday.

The storm is moving quickly to the north-northwest, with the latest
initial motion estimated to be 345/20 kt. An even faster motion to
the north-northwest is expected during the next day or so as Hilary
moves in the fast flow between a ridge over the south-central U.S.
and a mid- to upper-level low off the central California coast.
Little change was made to the previous track forecast.

Continued weakening due to dry air, and land interaction is
expected, but Hilary is forecast to remain a tropical storm while it
moves over southern California through tonight. The strongest winds
are expected to be to the east of the center and in areas of high
terrain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Preparations for flooding impacts across the Southwestern United
States should be completed with the peak intensity of heavy rainfall
expected later today through early Monday morning. The potentially
historic amount of rainfall is expected to cause life-threatening to
locally catastrophic flash, urban, and arroyo flooding including
landslides, mudslides, and debris flows through early Monday
morning. Localized flooding impacts, some significant, are also
expected across northern portions of the Intermountain West.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across the
northern portion of the Baja California Peninsula within the
Tropical Storm Warning area during the next few hours.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southwestern U.S. within the Tropical Storm Warning
area through tonight. Winds could be particularly strong and
gusty in and near areas of higher terrain. Gusty winds are
expected to spread well inland across the western United States.

4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.


NBC Live Updates

Quote:
Earthquake hits Southern California
In the midst of Tropical Storm Hilary, a magnitude 5.1 earthquake shook Southern California on Sunday afternoon, originating several miles southeast of Ojai. It affected several surrounding counties, including Los Angeles, Santa Barbara and Ventura.

A Santa Paula Police official told NBC there were no immediate reports or visible damage to buildings, some dating back 100 years.

Residents in those areas received an emergency mobile alert from United States Geological Survey's early warning system ShakeAlert: "Earthquake Detected! Drop, Cover, Hold On. Protect Yourself."

Numerous reports of aftershocks have been reported in the minutes afterward. A tsunami is not expected to result from the quake, according to the U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center.

The earthquake quickly became fodder for viral jokes online, trending on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, under the hashtag #hurriquake.

Hilary delivers historic rain to San Diego
With half an inch of rain recorded at San Diego International Airport, known locally as Lindbergh Field, it has been the wettest August day in 46 years, said former San Diego Union-Tribune weather reporter Robert Krier.

The day is surpassed by Aug. 16 and 17, 1977, when the remnants of Hurricane Doreen provided a deluge, he said on X, the platform formally known as Twitter.

Keep in mind, however, that the core of today's storm was just on the verge of crossing into the region, and there's much more to come.

The National Weather Service afternoon rain totals for the storm in the early afternoon include more than 4 inches at Mount Laguna in northern San Diego County, nearly 3 inches at Lake Palmdale in Los Angeles County's high desert and more than an inch in the L.A. city communities of Northridge, Van Nuys and Eagle Rock.

Water begins to flow in Death Valley
Death Valley National Park posted video of water flowing early Sunday, warning that the situation is expected to get worse.

"This video was taken near Zabriskie Point earlier this morning. Hurricane Hilary is forecasted to cause heavy rain for the next several days, so conditions are expected to worsen," the park wrote in a Facebook post.


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20 Aug 2023, 9:45 pm

NBC Live Updates

Quote:
Coachella Valley hospital floods
Eisenhower Medical Center in Rancho Mirage appeared to be experiencing minor flooding today.

NBC News national climate reporter Chase Cain posted photos on social media that show a few of the hospital's hallways filled with a shallow layer of water.

He said an adjacent pond outside had overflowed. Workers were trying to clean up the water and used sandbags to keep more out, Cain reported.

Rancho Mirage is a desert city in the Coachella Valley, which was forecast to get some of the worst rains of the storm.

A spokesperson for the hospital did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

'Life-threatening flooding' reported along Malibu coastline
The National Weather Service said tonight that 'life-threatening flooding' was taking place along the Malibu coastline and in adjacent Ventura County communities.

"THIS IS LIFE THREATENING FLOODING!! !! !!" the service said on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.

Its warning about dangerous flooding applies to the coast from Point Dume to Point Magu and also includes the communities of Camarillo, Westlake Village, Somis, and Spanish Hills, the weather service said.

The region was under multiple tropical storm and flash flood warnings.

Swift-water rescues were taking place in Spanish Hills, where vehicles were stuck amid flooded roadways, the weather service said.


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20 Aug 2023, 10:30 pm

On top of this...they just had a 5.1 magnitude earthquake hit southern California...centered in Ventura county.

Two earthquakes also hit Carlsbad New Mexico to.


Maybe it IS the End Times!



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22 Aug 2023, 5:18 am

Storm Hilary moves north after drenching Southern California, Southwest

Quote:
Storm Hilary flooded streets, downed power lines and triggered mudslides across Southern California on Monday after unleashing record-breaking downpours overnight, but no U.S. deaths were attributed to the storm and fears of disaster dissipated.

Hilary arrived in California as a rare tropical storm that dumped 4 to 5 inches (10 to 12 cm) of rain on coastal areas and 10 inches (25 cm) or more in the mountains, National Weather Service meteorologist Richard Thompson said. He called it the first landfallen tropical storm in Southern California since Sept. 25, 1939.

In terrain more accustomed to drought, flash floods rushed through desert plains and mountain canyons, washing out roads.

Rain clouds gave way to clearer skies on Monday as the storm moved north. Once hurricane strength off the coast of Mexico's Baja California peninsula, it was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone as it moved over the North American mainland.

No fatalities or significant injuries were reported in the U.S.. One man was killed in Mexico when his family was swept away while crossing a stream on Saturday, Mexican officials said.

But the storm was still terrifying for Ronald Mendiola, whose family of five including a 2-year-old took refuge on the roof of their home in the desert town of Cathedral City when the bottom floor flooded waist high to the adults shortly after midnight.

“Fortunately, Californians listened to their local officials and took the necessary preparedness actions to help protect themselves and their families," FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell told reporters aboard Air Force One.

The storm produced flash floods in the San Gabriel Mountains east of Los Angeles and inundated more densely populated coastal areas of Ventura County northwest of the city. Inland desert towns around the resort of Palm Springs also got walloped.

In Cathedral City, a neighbor of Palm Springs about 120 miles (190 km) east of Los Angeles, people raked out debris and assessed the damage on Monday after the water rose thigh high in some areas, witnesses said.

"Who has flood insurance in a desert?" said Nancy Ross, a resident of the Canyon Mobile Home in Cathedral City, where multiple homes suffered flood damage.

Ross said she was "really worried" during the storm because, "It was flowing like a river."

Record rains for the Aug. 20 date fell across Southern California in places like downtown Los Angeles and at airports in Burbank and Santa Barbara on Sunday, the weather service said.


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