Bird Flu Virus

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Two more people have been infected with the Bird Flu Virus, one has died. These two new cases are more significant in that they have taken place in Turkey. Until now, the Virus has been relegated to South East Asia.

But there have still been no cases of the virus spreading from human to human. All cases so far have been people who have had direct contact with the fowl.

It seems that the main types of fowl which can potentially carry this particular virus are chickens, ducks, and geese. Mostly this virus has gotten more out of hand because the birds have been kept in poor conditions and in crampt cages. Thereby, the virus is more easily spread from bird to bird.

So far, 74 cases of the virus have been seen in South East Asia. 2 now in Turkey. Bringing the total to 76.

This isn't an epidemic in that no human-to-human cases have been seen, meaning that the virus has not mutated enough to be spread except from direct contact from fowl to human. This virus will probably best be quelled by better conditions for the birds.

Birds have almost always carried one flu virus or another. This isn't anything new. But with the poor conditions which unfortunately have helped to spread this virus from bird to bird, such as in the meat markets of South East Asia, the virus has had enough time to mutate enough to effect humans through direct contact.

Those people who have minimal to no contact with birds are at very low risk, provided the virus doesn't mutate and can't be spread human-to-human. This is why it is focused around meat markets and other facilities where stores of food birds are kept in crampt quarters.

This was a summation of an article from Discover Magazine as well as recent information from BBC World News.

Just thought you all should know. And don't eat too much chicken.

Well, might be time to go back to being a vegatarian. I don't eat beef because of mad cow disease. I have wierd eating habits, likes/dislikes anyway.

It's a tricky one to allocate proportionate concern to.
A very small risk of a very large problem.
(And how many billions should go on asteroid defence?)

(3,500 road traffic deaths in the UK every year)
(43,000 in the USA, the leading cause of death between ages 3-33)
(3,000 malaria deaths a day in Africa)

Err, why is terrorism a big issue?
I'll worry about terrorists when I've finished worring about motorists.
Bird 'flu is going to have to wait in line.

Hehehe, yeah. As it stands now I'm not too worried. Though I see there's the potential for worry.

If it does start spreading further, everyone just don't eat chicken (or duck or goose if you fancy those, too).

Then again, if it mutates again spreading from human to human, THEN we should start worrying. Until then, everyone relax, go back to what you were doing. There's nothing to see here...

I'll be out on a limb, going face-to-face, (eyeball to eyeball) with fourteen people a day. If not ordered to shut down I may feel a pressing need to take several months vacation, and hang the mortgage payments.
I already have a slightly damaged lung from an old case of double pneumonia.

(Though the 1919 epidemic was unexpectedly harder on young fit people.)

Ah, avian influenza... most of it is a media hype about people dying in South East Asia. Okay, if only the media would notice that people die a lot in SE Asia and from all sorts of diseases- cholera, mosquito-bourne infections, tetanus... smallpox when it was around.

The reason why it is killing so many people is that the virus can't transmit from person to person easily at all yet. Once it starts being able to transmit between people, it'll become a heck of a lot less lethal. If the virus (which is trying to survive) kills too many people, it won't have a host and it'll die. Simple epidemiology. Once it starts infecting more people, most people will get sick and not very many people will die.

Though the 1919 pandemic was interesting to learn about, I hope we won't have another one of those soon. But it could almost be worse if the virus did mutate and stay lethal because of the way society is. People would not obey the government if they were supposed to be quarentined. That's the problem with a lot of disease control measurements- no one will obey them or the small percentage who do obey, it's not enough to change anything.

Just a question, but has anyone read Doomsday Book by Connie Willis? It's an excellent book that takes place in roughly 2050 (or is it 2150?) and a graduate student, Kivrin, travels back in time to England during the Black Plague. Meanwhile, in their present time, the other characters have to deal with this mysterious flu-like sickness that is infecting and killing many people. It's a good read, especially if you're into that kind of stuff.

In case you were wondering, epidemiology (the study of diseases and how they spread throughout a population) is one of my obsessions. You can find more information about this and bird flue at the CDC website. Sorry if this was too long.

Have you read on, got an opinion on, the proposal that the Black Death was not bubonic plague, but a form of haemorrhagic fever (something more Dengue/Ebola-like)?

I haven't yet, but I could probably acquire some information about that. That might make sense because it doesn't seem like plague would kill quite that percentage of people (between half and 4/5- it depends on where you get your information from). I don't think it would be quite as nasty as Ebola, which kills approximately 90% of the time, however. Sounds interesting, so I'll have to look into that.

Speaking of the Black Plague, has anyone got any good books they could recommend on that? I was just thinking about that as I was falling asleep last night (coincidence?), about maybe getting a book on it at some time.

Recommendations?

I don't have any for plague at the moment, but if you haven't read The Hot Zone, I've heard it's worth a good read. I think it has more to do with smallpox, though. Also, I'm still recommending the Doomsday Book for anyone who's interested.

Once final exams are over, I'll have more time to think about book recommendations. I know someone (IRL) who I'll ask. He would probably have a few good (though probably more scientific) books about plague.

Edit: Hot Zone has to do with Ebola...