Im scared

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They say there is an asteroid as big as the one that killed the dinosaurs in our solar system and it will come close to earth in about 7 years. It will be far enough to miss earth but because of different space factors the trajectory could change. There is probably even bigger asteroids in our solar system. Space scares the s**t out of me!

There's probably less than a one in a million chance of an object like this landing on the Earth. A "one in a million" chance is way too likely for this happening, actually. Try "one in a billion."

I wouldn't worry about it. Really.

How come the one that killed the dinosaurs happened all those millenniums ago, but one hasn't occured since (one big enough to destroy all life I mean)?

The one which killed the dinosaurs came to Earth 63 million years ago.

How do you know its a one in a billion chance? It is orbiting around the sun and will come very close to us. Even closer by the time im in my early 70s.

I don’t “know,” absolutely. I am not a scientist.

I do know that in order for an asteroid of large size to land on Earth, many things have to happen at the same time. It is extremely rare for these things to happen at the same time.

The last time this happened was 63 million years ago.

"Space factors" are not going to affect the asteroid's trajectory. The scientists can predict its future course very precisely. The bigger "concern" would be about asteroids that haven't been detected yet.

I don't know how old you are, but chances are, between now and when you reach your early 70s, other factors (over which humanity has far greater control) are more likely to threaten humanity's survival than asteroid impacts.

Asteroid and comet fragments hit Earth all the time. Most are small like grains of sand and when they hit Earth they produce shooting stars in the night's sky. Estimates for the mass of material that falls on Earth each year range from 37,000-78,000 tons. Some are a little larger like the asteroid that struck the Siberian forest in Tunguska in 1908. Since most of the Earth is covered in water, many smaller impacts are rarely observed.

At this point, most of the large potential impactors (greater than 1 km in diameter) that might strike Earth have been observed and their orbits have been determines and they are not a near term threat. The search presently is on for the smaller ones. There are over 20,000 known near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), over a hundred short-period near-Earth comets (NECs), and a number of solar-orbiting spacecraft and meteoroids large enough to be tracked in space before striking the Earth.

So the probability is that it is highly likely that the Earth will be struck by a smaller to medium size asteroid or comet fragment many, many times prior to the next big one. If these smaller objects can be tracked with sufficient lead time, then their impact point can be determined and a warning will be given. In general the response will be similar to that of a hurricane evacuation. A warning will be given and people will evacuate the region near the point of impact.

Our solar system resides in a spiral arm galaxy called the Milky Way. Spiral arms are similar to a spinning pinwheel. Our solar system spins around the center of the galaxy and passes in and out of the spiral arms over millions of years. The spiral arms are composed of very bright newly formed stars and it is a very dense region of space. As we pass through this dense region the gravity affects the distant comets at the edge of our solar system. It shakes them up and a few of these comets come deeper into the solar system. (It is like an apple tree, you shake the tree and the apples fall to the ground.) As result there is a pattern to these big ones. There is a high probability the Earth will be struck again by a big one in 80 million years as we pass through the next spiral arm.

Maybe they can blow it up before it hits earth, like in the movies.

Do not waste your energy worrying about something like that. It or something along the same lines will inevitably occur, so enjoy today because there is nothing you can do about it.

I'm scared that it might miss us.

Please asteroid, end our miserable existence. You screwed up with the first asteroid, dinosaurs are actually cool but humans are boring. Bring back the dinos!

I actually think that humans can be cool sometimes too!

I have a sign at the entrance of my underground shelter. It reads,

If the worst comes to the worst, can Sarah join you in the shelter?

Dinos may have had smaller brains but they may have used them more wisely than some of us do ours!

I don’t think people deserve to be devastated. Evil is not humanity. It is the absence of humanity. Most people are good.

No. I will not make such a commitment.

But on the other hand whenever I build something, I also document the process and create very detailed construction plans. And if SarahSmith is interested, I will tell her where the 96 page construction plan is located. All she has to do is PM me and ask for it.