Serious coronavirus thread. No deniers

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As a physicist, I am interested in theories but their ultimate judge is experiment - a theory can always overlook some effects or be stretched outside of the region it works.
I think history is the empirical side of economy (and sociology, and possibly several other fields).

Possible. My mom definitely always told my sister and I to be careful with dandelions since they stain clothes easily, which is definitely true. Maybe she said they were bad because they are messy and little me just came to the conclusion of them being poisonous on my own.

Yes, I’m aware of hyperinflation. My point was about the USA giving only $1200 per citizen and $16,800 per citizen in corporate welfare. Clearly they’re not that worried about printing off a couple Trillion dollars and can do it again - only next time actually giving more to citizens instead of corporations. I saw a headline that Democrats are working on a bill to give Americans $2000/month until this is over.

Back to the K-waves... This is from 2004, a prediction made back then to prove K-waves wrong:

They believed, the "psychosocial" well-being would reach maximum now (2020) and current time would be of rapid economical growth. I love it when scientists try to predict future
A simple 40 year K-wave for this time would predict an economical maximum about 2010, then slide down until 2030, then getting better.
Funny.

^ yeah: I’d come across that “phase shift and psychosocial health” thing before and found it most amusing
They actually managed to make the K-wave hypothesis less accurate!
We did peak and crash globally in FY2007/8
Hmmm...
(From his pamphlet)
Cycle 1 Rise 1789-1812 Fall
Cycle 2 Rise 1844-1873 Fall
Cycle 1 Rise 1898-1914 Fall
(I think 1914 is to fit with WW1 presaging the Russian revolution and fitting that into the schema in accordance with Marxist-Leninist dogma)
So scrub that to fit in real dates:
(Crash to crash)
1 = ???? - 1812 (??)
2 = 1812 - 1873 (61)
3 = 1873 - 1939 (66)
4 = 1939 - 1973 (34)
5 = 1973 - 2008 (45)

So yeah, recurrent global crashes do occur, but not according to a fixed cycle: one could hypothesise a frequency of 2.5 per century, but we haven’t had enough centuries since the industrial revolution to have gained sufficient data.

I would rather put the fourth crash at 1929, to match the Great Depression, not the war.
That would additionally even out the length of two neighbouring cycles.
It's more fun than a fundamental phenomenon but exploring it is quite interesting.

^ ah! You spotted the deliberate mistake
Yeah, that would give:
61, 56, 44, 45.
Average 51.5 years.
Shall we write a massive treatise predicting a major global crash in FY2059/60?

Just a 20 page pamphlet would do (us in)

^ not even one six chapter digression that fails to equalise the rent of marginal hill farms with retail profit rates?

A morsel of hope:

World's biggest trials of drug to treat Covid-19 get under way in UK (Guardian)

Its always good to see something proactive happening - lets hope that they make good progress with this

^ indeed.
The guy leading the testing from OU hopes we should know one way or the other with most of the various treatments in three weeks, sooner if one or more of them work out well. :fingerscrossed:

These are amazing time scales!

The speed that such things usually progress is glacial

Take a listen to this, slow the tempo down quite a bit and make the sound a lot heavier, and you’ll understand why people call me a fatalist.

This could be a game changer..

Breaking News

The COVID-19 virus can travel as far as 13 feet from patients, a new study found, which would make the U.S. government order for people to stay six feet away from each other essentially obsolete.

According to AFP, a team of researchers at the Academy of Military Medical Sciences in Beijing examined surface and air samples at a hospital in Wuhan, China, the city where the virus first cropped up in November.

What they found was the virus could travel 13 feet from an infected patient. The samples were taken in a general ward housing patients with the virus and an intensive care unit..

Yeah, I thought that too: but since all the drugs specifically mentioned in the article are already in usage for malaria, HIV and other diseases I’m assuming that means that the general safety and safe dosage part of the testing process has already been done.
Not sure if that would account for all of the speed he’s hoping for though: would the size of the study have any bearing on that?