I am scared about my cambelt breaking, Lack of statistics

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I am scared about my cambelt breaking on my new secondhand Citroen ZX

I am aware of how much it costs, £300 +-. Most engineers recommend that it gets changed before the recommended 72,000 miles because of the age of the car, I am on 58,000 . However the mechanics cambelt manual and the Haynes Manual does not specify the age of the car being relevant. Haynes manual does specify age for other components such as the oil change as relevant( which is 6,000miles or 6 months whichever comes first. And the mechanic’s cambelt manual specifies the age relevant for other makes of car.

Obviously if you have bought the car as new and spend a lot of money on it, then the any small chance of it breaking should be avoided and you should get it changed. However, if one has spent £300 on an old banger then it is worth the risk.

The fact that I am statistically unaware of the chances of it snapping, leaves me a little bit concerned. I would love to know a hundred cars drove until the cam belts snapped what would be the average age that it snapped. If 1% of cars had their cam belt snap before reaching 72,000 because of its age, might not be acceptable from the view point of Citroen because of the shear numbers of cars sold (1% equals thousands of cars) However it would be acceptable risk to take myself, if I didn’t spend that much on the car in first place.

What is the chanced that something else would go wrong before the cam belt snaps. If the if the percent is high then I simply wait until something else does go wrong, thus giving me time to save up plus get the two jobs done together discounted price.

I could also watch other workmate with second hand cars as none of them knows anything about cars, let alone the date they need to change the cambelt, and none a are willing to shell out half of the cast of their car getting it changed. So statistically if I watch all five of my workmates cars including my landlond who has the same modal and admits they don’t concern themselves with such matter, I have a one in six chance of being the next victim. If it does happen to someone else then that would be a warning to get it changed, straight away.

I would think that 72,000 is a major service time, pull apart the top end, reseat the valves, replace the piston rings, rod bering inserts, and the cam belt.

It is before the, you need a rebore, new pistons, valves, cam belt, of 100,000.

The French are French, they do things a little different, get the Citroen factory manual, much cheaper than a cam belt.

I would see what the recomended service is. If they say rings and valves, then yes, the cam belt too.

If 1% break before 72,000 then over 50% will last 200,000.

Rings, rod bearing inserts, are the wear parts, if replaced every 75,000, engines will run near forever. Valves last, if they seat well, but when they start leaking, new valves and seats.

Plan on lapping the valves, replacing the rings and bearing inserts at 75,000, and cam belt, and it will running good at 150,000. Then the first overbore, new pistons and rings, and another 75,000.

Cars are made better than owners. Most die of neglect.

The six months on oil is because of acid, water+Carbon Dioxide= Cabolic Acid. It will etch the surface of pollished metal, bearings, and once it is slightly rough, wear proceeds rapidly.

Condensation from the air puts water in the oil, CO2 is everywhere, so even if it is hardly run, still change your oil.

A battery is made to last three years, by then the plates are covered in lead sulfide, it still works, but the alternator is made to work much harder. Batteries are cheap, alternators are not, buy a new battery every three years. The alternator will last the life of the car.

Spark plugs drop in performance in 5000 miles, about 20%. changing them keeps a clean engine, and the gas saved more than pays for it.

I know from reading up on Ferraris that changing the belts is time related, not so much mileage. Even if the belts are made of some high tech material, it ages over time. Ferrari typically sit in someone's garage, so owners think the belts don't need replacing until the odometer hits the mark.
But over time they deteriorate.

Another thing to consider is: what happens when the belts break? Some engines have valves that go down far enough into the cylinder that they would hit the piston if the belts snapped. If that's what happens, end of engine. If not, the timing goes kaput, but the valves and pistons survive, then it's not such a serious consideration. (Except you're stranded wherever, whenever it occurs.)

Wow! All of human life on wrongplanet.net. You have forgot to take into account the engine stresses caused by sudden accelerations when chasing tossers in BMW's. A not inconsiderable factor. It is highly likely that if a failure was to occur it would be in such circumstances.

Having seen what happens when a cambelt dies at speed I'd replace it. Don't go to a main dealer, buy the belt and go to one of the smaller independent garages where you can watch them work, that way you can learn something whilst they take your car apart.

Ed Almos