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Oodain
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12 Dec 2012, 6:52 pm

Janissy wrote:
eric76 wrote:

Another prediction that flows from the second hypothesis is that if we compare apples to apples – meaning if we look at the same community and apply the same diagnostic methods that were used in the past as documented in a published study, then the incidence should be the same. In other words – if we control for any changes in the diagnostic criteria and surveillance methods the incidence of autism should be stable over time. Chakrabarti and Fombonne did exactly that, comparing the incidence of autism in 2002 (looking at a cohort of children born between 1996-1998) to the same population using the same methods as a previous study looking at the cohort of children born between 1992-1995. They found:

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The rate in this study is comparable to that in previous birth cohorts from the same area and surveyed with the same methods, suggesting a stable incidence. (Chakrabarti 2005)


If the broadened diagnosis hypothesis is true than it must also be true that as other diagnoses shifted over to autism they would decrease as autism numbers increased. This is exactly what Jick et al found when they reviewed a cohort of boys with and without autism. What was previously diagnosed as language disorder is now being diagnosed as autism, with a corresponding decrease in non-specific language disorders. Shattuck found the exact same effect, so called “diagnostic substitution,” when he studied the prevalence of disabilities among children in US special education from 1984 to 2003. He found that in locations where the prevalence of autism had increased there was a corresponding decrease in the prevalence of other disabilities. (Shattuck 2006)


I'm glad somebody is looking into the exact figures because this is something that really puzzles me. I absolutely can understand how categorical shifting could inflate autism diagnostic figures while deflating figures for other diagnostic categories. The part that I am puzzled by is why there is a perception of more children needing special services in school. People in the education field say that there is a true and real rise in the number of children they need to provide services for. So if the percentage of children is unchanged and the only change is which category they were in, why the perception of rise? Is it a change in educational law(s) (depending on country)? Were these children simply flunked previously? If more severely affected, were they institutionalized and therefore educators were not responsible for educating them? I've googled around but can't find out for certain.


it would probably be a mix of several factors,

we are in a period of relatively fast evolutionary change, there has never been more beneficial or detrimental unique mutations around (something that can actually be checked at least some distance back)

the demands of the world is changing as well and i havent seen that being taken into account, there also was a tendency in many countries to hide away the severily disabled in one way or another, from institutionalization to simply being kept at home.

it certainly is a complex question but in the end we still stand the same place, with people being scared left and right of irrelevant coincidences while the actual issue, life quality of those affected is ignored to a large extent.


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Sea Gull
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13 Dec 2012, 2:25 am

There has been autism long before GMO foods were even considered as an idea.

This is enough evidence for me :)


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13 Dec 2012, 6:11 am

Autistic in the year 1985. Try again please.

I think Bowie may have contributed to my autism...and parachute pants.


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