State by state coronavirus comparison is misleading

Page 2 of 2 [ 24 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2

Magna
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 21 Jun 2018
Gender: Male
Posts: 6,932

16 Mar 2020, 7:55 pm

Syd wrote:
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487562-johns-hopkins-professor-estimates-at-least-50000-people-have-coronavirus-in

“Don’t believe the numbers when you see, even on our Johns Hopkins website, that 1,600 Americans have the virus,” Makary said. “No, that means 1,600 got the test, tested positive. There are probably 25 to 50 people who have the virus for every one person who is confirmed.”

We're only seeing the tip of the iceberg. Especially in Washington state and New York.


That's what I was thinking earlier today: the numbers of those confirmed versus the actual number with the virus. The number of confirmed cases exceeded 4,000 today in the U.S. I wonder if the actual number of people with the virus is 50 to even 100 times that number in the U.S. alone at this point.



kraftiekortie
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 4 Feb 2014
Gender: Male
Posts: 87,510
Location: Queens, NYC

16 Mar 2020, 8:10 pm

I tend to doubt it’s that much more. I’m thinking more like 10 times the 4,000.

We’ll know more once more people are tested.



QFT
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 27 Jun 2019
Age: 46
Gender: Male
Posts: 3,456

21 Mar 2020, 7:52 pm

The numbers I provided in the original post have drastically changed. But I will leave original post as it stands, uneditted, so that you can see just how much worse things became. Just look at the numbers I cut and pasted and then compare it to the numbers you see on the link when you click on it. So now it DOES look scary.



Syd
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 23 Dec 2007
Gender: Female
Posts: 1,280

21 Mar 2020, 8:06 pm

When this is over, Florida will have more deaths than New York.



QFT
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 27 Jun 2019
Age: 46
Gender: Male
Posts: 3,456

21 Mar 2020, 10:13 pm

Syd wrote:
When this is over, Florida will have more deaths than New York.


What is your reasoning behind this?



Syd
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 23 Dec 2007
Gender: Female
Posts: 1,280

22 Mar 2020, 12:03 am

QFT wrote:
Syd wrote:
When this is over, Florida will have more deaths than New York.


What is your reasoning behind this?


Florida is home to the largest elderly population in the nation. Their doctors per capita is lower than New York's. Also, a large percentage of their medical workers are aged 60+, which puts them at risk and could further reduce the state's health service capacity. They have the #3 biggest tourism industry (after California and Texas). They receive a huge amount of travelers, both domestically and internationally, which can spread the virus. The government has acted incompetently by failing to postpone the primary polling, allowing public Spring Break festivities to continue for too long, and not providing enough test kits and other medical necessities for their populace. I expect them to be unprepared, and to suffer more casualties than any other state.



jogncartman
Emu Egg
Emu Egg

Joined: 6 Nov 2019
Age: 26
Gender: Male
Posts: 6
Location: Glasgow

22 Mar 2020, 4:01 am

Thank you for the article



Syd
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 23 Dec 2007
Gender: Female
Posts: 1,280

23 Mar 2020, 12:56 pm

QFT wrote:
Syd wrote:
QFT wrote:
Still, though, what I said about ratios is true regardless. They should have written ratios instead of just total numbers.

Some states with lesser numbers have higher ratios. Look at District of Columbia for example. It has one of the smaller numbers yet one of the largest ratios. So if you think its dangerous, then why lure people there?


I like your idea of including the ratios. The more details, the better. I think they should also show the data of the individual cities. I'm sure that Seattle has many more cases than Spokane, but if they only lump the cases into the category of "Washington," it makes the whole state look bad.


Yeah, I agree with you about the cities. I think being in a "dangerous" state far away from major cities is better than being in a "safe" state in the middle of a big city -- since the cities is where it is probably concentrated.

That, plus also different states have different sizes. Same goes for cities by the way. But at least within a city you can say that people travel back and forth. But as far as state goes, there is no reason to assume they are any more likely to travel to the opposite side of a huge state then make a short trip across the border to the other state.


Last week, I sent an email to Lauren Gardner asking them to include the information about cities.

When you open the map now, they're showing the towns and cities in the United States.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6



cron