2 weeks below 0 degrees C

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The problem with cycling is rather different - you are producing a lot of heat, and are out in the wind. I always dress in layers for riding, and unzip in time to avoid sweating.
There was an airplane crash in an Arctic storm with no severe injuries. The pilot felt responsible, and ran around getting about a dozen others set to survive the weather. Doing that, he sweat too much, and was the only one to die.

This is a very common phenomenon.
I used to do a lot of cross country skating and during spring time, in the morning we'd examine the ice and it was solid and say 2 dm thick. Then by lunch time a small boat would go by far, far away, and the waves from it completely broke all the ice.
The reason is that the sun kind of burns small holes in the ice, so while it's thick it's quite porrous. In the morning it has to some degree "healed" due to the cold and dark night, but it more or less quickly returns to the damaged state if it's a sunny day.
This is particularly true with salt water ice.

/Mats