Autistic Spectrum Disorders will rise again in the UK

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Perambulator
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05 Jan 2010, 4:34 pm

The reason is purely and simply logical. Scientists have realised that the older a father is, the more likely his offspring will be on the Autistic spectrum. Because of the rising house prices of this decade, women in the UK put off having babies for economic reasons.

They needed time to pay off most the mortgage for a family-sized home in a way earlier generations didn't have to. Now they're almost all having babies at the age of around 30, often with partners around the same age, meaning of course there are bound to be more Autistic babies on the way in the UK.

Thus, in a few years the proportion of Autistic versus neurotypical children could have changed dramatically.



fiddlerpianist
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05 Jan 2010, 5:02 pm

Perambulator wrote:
The reason is purely and simply logical. Scientists have realised that the older a father is, the more likely his offspring will be on the Autistic spectrum. Because of the rising house prices of this decade, women in the UK put off having babies for economic reasons.

They needed time to pay off most the mortgage for a family-sized home in a way earlier generations didn't have to. Now they're almost all having babies at the age of around 30, often with partners around the same age, meaning of course there are bound to be more Autistic babies on the way in the UK.

Thus, in a few years the proportion of Autistic versus neurotypical children could have changed dramatically.

Possibly, but very unlikely. You're assuming that the age of the father not only causes autism, but that it is the single most contributing factor.


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matt
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05 Jan 2010, 5:41 pm

If autistic children have older fathers, it is likely to mean one of two things:

  1. Increases in the age of a father at the time of conception create some sort of condition that makes it more likely that his child will have autism.

    or
  2. Something about a child being autistic makes it more likely that the time of their conception will be later in their father's life.


If at least some factors of autism are genetic, and if autistic fathers' own autism or autistic genes delay the average age that they have children, then that may explain the positive correlation.

Number 2 seems more likely to me.



CockneyRebel
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05 Jan 2010, 5:45 pm

That means that the British population will be adjusting to acomidate all the autistic people. I love it. :)


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fiddlerpianist
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05 Jan 2010, 8:21 pm

matt wrote:
If autistic children have older fathers, it is likely to mean one of two things:
  1. Increases in the age of a father at the time of conception create some sort of condition that makes it more likely that his child will have autism.

    or
  2. Something about a child being autistic makes it more likely that the time of their conception will be later in their father's life.

If at least some factors of autism are genetic, and if autistic fathers' own autism or autistic genes delay the average age that they have children, then that may explain the positive correlation.

Number 2 seems more likely to me.

If I had to vote, it would be for #2 as well.


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